Diario geostrategico, 21 ottobre 2021
Buona lettura !
The Science of Where Magazine’s interviews:
– L’intelligenza artificiale contro le discriminazioni sul lavoro. The Science of Where Magazine incontra Keith Sonderling, Commissioner del U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission
– Per Italia e Germania, il futuro è nelle nuove tecnologie. Intervista esclusiva con l’Ambasciatore d’Italia a Berlino, Armando Varricchio
– Gathering strenght, gathering storms. Visions on artificial intelligence. The Science of Where Magazine meets Michael Littman and Peter Stone
Today’s Top:
– Hussein Nagah writes for Al Monitor: The United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced the adoption of cybersecurity standards for government agencies as it revealed the budget for the next five years (2022-2026), which is the largest in the history of the Gulf state.
The announcement was made by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, ruler of Dubai and vice president of the UAE, who stressed that cybersecurity is a sovereign priority, noting that cyberspace needs protection and updates – UAE budget boosts cybersecurity
Armenia-Azerbaijan-Turkey:
– Vasif Useynov writes for The Jamestown Foundation: On October 15, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian, in an online summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), declared his country’s readiness to provide both railway and highway connection to Azerbaijan, via southern Armenian territories, that would link mainland Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. Baku has routinely referred to this overland passage as the “Zangezur corridor,” with a reference to the historical name of what is today Armenia’s Syunik Province (Primeminister.am, October 15). Although Pashinian had previously confirmed the plans for the construction of a railway link between two parts of Azerbaijan via the Meghri region of Syunik Province, he had rejected Baku’s demand for an automobile road along the same route (see EDM, May 24) – ‘Zangezur Corridor’ Closer to Realization as Armenia Readies to Normalize Relations With Turkey and Azerbaijan
Baltic States-Russia:
– Paul Globe writes for The Jamestown Foundation: In the 1990s, the status of ethnic Russians who did not automatically become citizens in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania was a lively topic—especially in Moscow, where policymakers hoped to use those communities as a pressure device or even a fifth column against these countries. With the passage of time, however, ethnic-Russian populations in the Baltics have declined due to deaths, departures or assimilation – Non-Citizenship Issue in Baltic Countries Passing from the Scene
Belarus:
– Grigory Ioffe writes for The Jamestown Foundation: Writing about the Belarusian opposition (BO) can be risky because any expressed negativity toward the opposition leaders is perceived in some quarters as tantamount to supporting dictatorship. Certainly, a healthy opposition is a valuable societal outlet for expressing legitimate disagreement with the authorities. And this is especially true in Belarus, where the electoral outcome officially made public on August 9, 2020, remains in doubt and the post-election protest rallies were notoriously crushed by the government. As of October 2021, there are 812 detainees labeled political prisoners by human rights groups (Spring96.org, October 17). And the Belarusian government has issued a series of draconian laws that open citizens up to charges of “terrorism” simply for subscribing to certain Telegram channels (Naviny, October 14). The absence of any officially tolerated conduits for voicing disagreement with such policies, thus, arguably qualifies the political regime of President Alyaksandr Lukashenka as “dictatorial.” – The Belarusian Opposition and the Five Stages of Grief
China-Bangladesh:
– Asif Muztaba Hassan writes for East Asia Forum: China’s combative foreign conduct has many believing that the country has departed from former leader Deng Xiaoping’s philosophy ‘to leave brightness, embrace obscurity, and keep a low profile’ (tao guang yang hui) and is ready to assert it authority internationally. But China’s quiet charm offensive with Bangladesh lends a different character to its diplomacy – China’s charm offensive in Bangladesh
China-Muslim Uighurs:
– Al Jazeera writes: In November of 2018, Anayit Abliz, a Muslim Uighur from China’s far western region of Xinjiang, was sentenced to three years in prison for using a file-sharing application called Zapya and a virtual private network (VPN) to communicate online the previous year. During the months of detention leading to his conviction, the teenager’s family was subjected to intrusive surveillance, with their daily activities chronicled in a series of reports filed under the heading, ‘Situation regarding persons who are detained or going through re-education’ – Xinjiang’s ‘architecture of repression’ targets Muslim Uighurs
China-Russia-Afghanistan:
– Liu Caiyu writes for Global Times: The “Moscow format” talks on Wednesday highlighted the prominent role of China-Russia coordination on the Afghan crisis when the US and some Western countries chose to evade responsibility, experts said, as Moscow gathered 10 countries and the Taliban to focus on the developing political and military situation in Afghanistan – ‘Moscow format’ talks highlight China-Russia coordination on Afghan issue, conspicuous US absence
Climate Change-Pandemic:
– Carl Bildt writes for Project-Syndicate: Just when the world needs to come together to tackle the pandemic and mobilize a response to climate change, geopolitical tensions are rising, threatening the prospects of cooperation. The situation demands a level of global statesmanship that has yet to materialize – Competition and Coexistence
Climate Change-Southeast Asia:
– Tony La Viña writes for Project-Syndicate: Southeast Asia is one of the world’s most biodiverse regions, and it is also highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Policymakers in the region must ensure that plans to preserve nature while promoting sustainable economic growth are part of the post-pandemic recovery – ASEAN Countries Must Lead on Biodiversity
Colombia:
– Al Jazeera writes: The Inter-American Court of Human Rights has issued a ruling holding Colombia’s government responsible for the kidnap, torture and rape of a journalist by paramilitary groups in 2000. Jineth Bedoya, a reporter at the time for the El Espectador newspaper, was investigating a weapons smuggling ring when she was abducted and assaulted by far-right militia members – Colombia ‘responsible for kidnap, attack and rape of journalist’
Cryptocurrencies:
– Al Jazeera writes: Love cryptocurrencies or hate the very idea of them, they’re becoming more mainstream by the day. Cryptocurrencies have surged so much that their total value has reached nearly $2.5 trillion, rivalling the world’s most valuable company, Apple, and have amassed more than 200 million users. At this size, it’s simply too big for the financial establishment to ignore – Love them or hate them: Cryptocurrencies are here to stay
Defense-Military:
– Dmitri Trenin writes for Carnegie Moscow Center: Russia’s decision to end diplomatic engagement with NATO should have been a nonevent. Responding to NATO’s decision to expel a number of Russian military officers serving at Moscow’s mission to the Atlantic alliance and to cut the size of the mission by half, Russia upped the ante. It suspended relations with NATO, recalled the staff of its mission from Brussels, ordered NATO liaison officers stationed in Moscow to leave, and required the NATO information office to close – Why Russia Officially Broke With NATO
– Roger McDermott writes for The Jamestown Foundation: The leadership of Russia’s Armed Forces has used the introduction and diversification of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) as a means to boost target acquisition in combat operations. The role of both UAVs and unmanned aerial combat vehicles (UACV) in Russian military planning is extending into developing such systems for conducting strikes. A key example of this technological process is the effort to combine the Su-57 fifth-generation fighter with the heavy-strike UCAV S-70 Okhotnik (“Hunter”), first publicly seen in early 2019 and which underwent its first test flight in August of that year (see EDM, November 19, 2019). The Okhotnik remains at its testing stage, yet advances in its design suggest it will offer a formidable strike capability for the Aerospace Forces (Vozdushno Kosmicheskikh Sil—VKS) (Rossiyskaya Gazeta, October 10, 2021) – Russian Military Enhances UACV Strike Capability
– Patrick Tucker writes for Defense One: The “deeply concerning” test of a Chinese hypersonic missile shows that the United States has “a lot of work to do” on technology and policy, military officials and lawmakers said yesterday. The August test, first reported in the Financial Times, featured a hypersonic glide vehicle that entered orbit. Hypersonic weapons descend at more than five times the speed of sound while retaining enough maneuverability to evade missile defenses designed for the more predictable paths of ICBMs. China’s recent orbital test suggests that a weapon based on its vehicle could have essentially unlimited range – China’s Hypersonic Test Raises Questions About US Missile Defense, Deterrence
– Caitlin M. Kenney writes for Defense One: The Army is delaying testing and fielding of its augmented-reality headset while tweaks are made to improve the system, service officials announced Monday. One of the Army’s top-priority equipment programs, the Integrated Visual Augmentation System, or IVAS, is a heads-up digital display that enables soldiers to view video or other data from a network – Army Delays IVAS Display Headset by a Year
– Daniel L. Davis writes for Defense News: Last week, Gen. Charles Flynn, commander of the U.S. Army Pacific, said he wants to “signal” strength to China by putting “boots on the ground” in Asia, “the most consequential region, at the most consequential time against the most consequential adversary.”. But rather than adopting an antagonistic stance, the purpose of the U.S. Army is first to deter any would-be adversary from attacking the United States, and failing that, to defeat them. Seeking confrontation with a competitor does not contribute to our security – The Army is getting great power competition all wrong
– Christopher J. Hunter writes for Defense News: Late Saturday evening, Oct. 16, China’s successful August test of a nuclear-capable hypersonic missile was publicly reported for the first time by the “Financial Times,” a ”capability that caught US intelligence by surprise,” according to “Financial Times” sources. Fifty-nine years earlier, on Oct. 16, 1962, the Soviet Union’s forward deployment of nuclear capable ballistic missiles in Cuba also caught the United States by surprise – A Central American missile crisis?
– Burak Ege Bekdil writes for Defense News: Otonom Teknoloji, a privately owned Turkish defense technology company, has said it signed a deal with the Iraqi government for supplying aerostat and airship systems. The firm said on Oct. 17 that the deal would also involve technological know-how transfer and co-production options in the future. No financial details of the sale were disclosed – Turkish producer to supply aerostat systems to Iraq
– Stephen Losey writes for Defense News: The airplane that will one day be the Air Force’s next electronic warfare aircraft, the EC-37B Compass Call, has made its first flight and the contractor handling the program says it is on track to be delivered to the service for testing next year. The current version of the Compass Call, the EC-130H, played a lesser-known — but vital — role in the last two decades of war in the Middle East region, jamming the communications and bomb transmissions of militant groups such as the Taliban and Islamic State. But those decades-old air frames — some of which date back to the Vietnam War era — are aging and sorely need replacing – L3Harris: First flight of future Compass Call paves way for 2022 delivery
– Joe Gould writes for Defense News: Ukraine’s defense minister fired back Tuesday at Russian predictions that the U.S., in light of its rushed exit from Afghanistan, will eventually abandon Ukraine. “I’m not going to compare relations between the U.S. and Ukraine with relations between the U.S. and Afghanistan,” Andriy Taran said. “Ukraine is a country that fights for its own independence and territorial integrity. We have no doubt of the support from our strategic partner.” – Ukraine defense minister: Don’t compare us to Afghanistan
– Sabena Siddiqui writes for Al Monitor: Iran’s army chief, Maj. Gen. Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, headed a high-level military delegation to Islamabad last week at the invitation of his Pakistani counterpart Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa. Marking a new phase in military ties between both neighbors, the trip held special significance as it took place at a time when the region is going through major geopolitical changes – Iran, Pakistan work to strengthen ties as Afghan situation remains fluid
– Fehim Tastekin writes for Al Monitor: Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones, touted as a game-changer for Ankara’s allies in the Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh conflicts, appear bound for further showing in African skies, but not without the risk of complicating Turkey’s foreign ties, primarily its fledgling bid at fence-mending with Egypt – Drone sale to Ethiopia could jeopardize Turkey-Egypt dialogue
Ecological Transition-Climate Change:
– Zhang Hui writes for Global Times: China announced it would establish a Kunming Biodiversity Fund and take the lead by investing 1.5 billion yuan ($233 million) to support biodiversity protection in developing countries during the just concluded first part of the COP15 summit, which injected much hope and confidence into the global biodiversity cause – Mutually-beneficial science plan under BRI helps global biodiversity cause
Greece-Egypt-Cyprus:
– Al Monitor writes: Egypt, Greece and Cyprus held a tripartite meeting in Athens Tuesday as the alliance between the Eastern Mediterranean states continues to strengthen. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi participated in the ninth annual summit along with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades. The trio discussed electricity cooperation, energy exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, Cyprus’ dispute with Turkey and more, Egypt’s official Middle East News Agency reported – Egypt-Greece-Cyprus summit prioritizes energy cooperation
Greece-Egypt-Europe:
– Al Jazeera writes: Greece pledged Tuesday to link Egypt to the European Union’s energy market with an undersea cable that would carry electricity across the Mediterranean.“[Egypt’s] link to Europe will be Greece,” Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said after talks in Athens with Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi. “We are seeking diversification of energy sources, and Egypt can also become a provider of electricity, which will be produced mainly by the sun.” – Greece pledges to link Egypt to European Union’s energy market
Iraq:
– Akeel Abbas writes for Al Monitor: Final results of Iraq’s Oct. 10 elections were announced on Oct. 18. The results are expected to be approved by the federal court in two weeks without a major change.Shiites have divided into three main groups: Sadrists with 73 seats, Nouri Maliki’s State of Law with 34 seats and the Popular Mobilization Unit’s Fatah with 17 seats. This is in addition to the majority of independents (about 40) who mostly are Shiite – Iraqi election shakes up Shiite political old guard
Kashmir:
– Al Jazeera writes: A surge in violence in Indian-administered Kashmir in recent weeks, including a spate of suspected rebel attacks on civilians and a widespread crackdown by security forces, has left at least 33 people dead in the heavily militarised region since early October. Kashmir, which is claimed in full by India and Pakistan but ruled in parts by the two neighbours, has been the site of a bloody armed rebellion against New Delhi since the 1990s – What is behind the recent surge in violence in Kashmir?
Post Pandemic World:
– Xu Sitao writes for Valdai Discussion Club: Geopolitical tensions and the enhanced role of governments will bring about a return to more extensive industrial policies in many developed countries. It is therefore possible that misallocated resources and subsidies to certain industries will result in further tensions in global trade and commerce. As a result, new mechanisms are needed for building global cooperation and containing conflicts, otherwise the law of the jungle will prevail, writes Xu Sitao, Chief Economist, Partner of Deloitte China, and speaker at the third session of the 18th Annual meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club, titled “A Closed Society and Its Friends. Who Needs Freedom and Why?” – A New Concept of Freedom in the Post-Covid Era
– Nelson Wong writes for Valdai Discussion Club: The post-pandemic world will not be determined by the outcome of the confrontation between the US and China, or by splitting the world into two competing camps, writes Nelson Wong, Vice Chairman of the Shanghai Centre for RimPac Strategic and International Studies, speaker at the Special Session of the 18th Annual meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club – The Post-Pandemic World and US-China Rivalry
Russia-Ukraine-USA:
– Vladimir Socor writes for The Jamestown Foundation: The Joseph Biden administration has apparently decided to work with Russia toward a political solution to the conflict in Ukraine’s Donbas. On October 13, US Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland capped a three-day visit in Moscow (see EDM, October 14), conferring with Dmitry Kozak, deputy head of Russia’s presidential administration and special presidential envoy on the conflict in Ukraine’s east. The Biden administration had proactively initiated this visit – The Kremlin Is Pleased After Kozak-Nuland Talks on Ukraine (Part One)
– Vladimir Socor writes for The Jamestown Foundation: According to Kremlin-connected analyst Fedor Lukyanov, the Joseph Biden administration had to work hard with Moscow to make Under Secretary Victoria Nuland’s visit possible. The United States seeks a mutually accepted modus vivendi with Russia regarding the Donbas problem; and Biden’s team is prepared to exert its influence on Ukraine to cooperate toward that goal. Moscow would therefore expect Washington to “adjust Ukraine’s profile downward in the US policy” (Bfm.ru, October 10; Global Affairs, October 11) – The Kremlin Is Pleased After Kozak-Nuland Talks on Ukraine (Part Two)
Space:
– Pavel Luzin writes for The Jamestown Foundation: Even as the commercial space sector grows quickly in the United States as well as in Europe, China, Japan, India and other countries, Russia continues to lack a robust approach to advancing in this area. The Russian government has for years been declaring an interest in developing space startups (NTI News, July 30, 2019; Roscosmos, January 9, 2021). The main reason here is political: space affairs are important for Russian society raised on heroic stories of Sputnik and Yuri Gagarin, and they signal the ostensible strength of Russia as a political and economic actor on the world stage. Successes in outer space generate national pride and feelings of greatness; whereas failures cast doubt on the capacity of Russia’s political economy system (see EDM, July 15) – The Commercial Space Sector and Russia’s Space Strategy
– Nathan Strout writes for Defense News: The U.S. Space Force has signed a research agreement with venture capital firm Embedded Ventures to explore whether it can use venture capital practices to accelerate innovation with SpaceWERX, the service’s new effort to attract industry startups. Embedded Ventures said it signed a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement, or CRADA, with the Space Force. While CRADAs do not include funding, they allow the Department of Defense to more easily share technologies and information with a given company – Space Force teams with venture capital company on SpaceWERX
Tunisia:
– Hanen Jebli writes for Al Monitor: The moderate Islamist Ennahda party, Tunisia’s largest party in parliament, issued a statement Oct. 14 rejecting the new government headed by Najla Bouden. “It’s a de facto government of the unconstitutional Decree 117,” in reference to the order issued by President Kais Saied on Sept. 22, which put the executive and legislative powers in his hands – Tunisia’s new government sworn in without parliamentary approval
USA:
– Dan Murphy and Jennifer Tescher write for Brookings: After years of inactivity, momentum is gathering for policy action on issues related to consumer financial data in the United States. In July, the president issued an executive order encouraging the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) to enable data portability in financial services. The CFPB issued an advance notice of proposed rulemaking last year and expects to commence a rulemaking process in spring 2022. Congress has shown interest in the subject as well, most recently by holding a Task Force on Financial Technology hearing on consumers’ right to access financial data – Policymakers must enable consumer data rights and protections in financial services
– Kylel Pomerlau writes for American Enterprise Institute: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) recently published its monthly budget review for September, now estimating a spike in federal tax receipts for the 2021 fiscal year. According to CBO, individual income tax receipts will climb by $443 billion (27.5 percent), and corporate income tax receipts will climb by $158 billion (74.8 percent). Overall, federal revenue is estimated to increase by 18.3 percent between 2020 and 2021, the largest one-year jump in 44 years, and will hit 17.8 percent of GDP, which is the highest since 2015 – Is the spike in federal revenue permanent?
– Amy Simon writes for American Enterprise Institute: The COVID-19-related emergency policy interventions in the unemployment insurance (UI) system unfolded quickly and will have long-lasting ramifications. While the Great Recession produced modest policy changes, the 2020 relief bills, follow-on state implementation efforts, and record-breaking increases in claims have shifted the paradigm. This creates a unique opportunity to examine long-running structural questions in UI program design and how targeted improvements now could help restructure and reform the system. This report recaps the history of the first eighteen months of these changes, highlights the intersection of technology and program implementation, and suggests both intermediate and long-term considerations for policymakers and stakeholders – Unemployment insurance at a crossroads: Tracing program design during and beyond COVID-19
– Jack Buckley writes for American Enterprise Institute: Standardized educational assessments are often criticized as overly burdensome, competing for vital instructional time and narrowing the curriculum to what is tested. They are regarded as expensive, diverting scarce resources from students, teachers, and classrooms to shadowy testing companies. They are unfair, showing stubborn achievement gaps between rich and poor, Black and White, and suburban and rural students year after year – Building a case for decentralised AI ethics
– W. Bradford Wilcox, Lyman Stone, Wendy Wang, Jason Carroll write for American Enterprise Institute: Where is the American family headed as COVID-19 finally seems to be abating? Focusing on family formation in the United States, this report considers three possibilities: (a) the “decadence-deepens scenario,” where marriage and fertility fall further in the wake of the pandemic; (b) the “renaissance scenario,” where men and women turn towards family formation in response to the existential questions and loneliness raised by the last year-and-a-half; and (c) the “family polarization scenario,” where economic, religious, and partisan divides in family formation deepen in post-COVID America – The divided state of our unions
– Klon Kitchen writes for American Enterprise Institute: Could Congress’s antitrust campaign against Big Tech derail America’s strategic competition with China? A bipartisan collection of senior national security leaders — including a former Secretary of Defense, former Director of National Intelligence, former CIA executives, and a former White House Homeland Security adviser — think so, and we would do well to listen – Invoking Big Tech as an accusation can endanger American security
– Alan D. Viard writes for American Enterprise Institute: During his successful presidential campaign last year, Joe Biden made a sweeping and misguided pledge about his tax plan: “Nobody making under 400,000 bucks would have their taxes raised, period, bingo.” The pledge’s flaws, which I have previously discussed, are on full display in the budget reconciliation bill recently assembled by the House Budget Committee. Some of the bill’s provisions depart from the principles of good tax policy to comply with the pledge, while others violate the pledge in an effort to follow tax policy principles – House reconciliation bill struggles with Biden’s flawed $400,000 tax pledge
– Laura Tyson, Lenny Mendonca write for Project-Syndicate: Although the US economy has recovered faster than many others around the world, persistent labor-market problems lurk beneath the surface. The deep class-, race-, and gender-based inequalities laid bare by the pandemic are getting worse, demanding concerted action by policymakers – What the US Recovery Is Missing
USA-China:
– Zhou Bo write for Valdai Discussion Club: If the 20-year war in Afghanistan was a “forever war” for the United States, then its competition with China must be “forever competition”, because it will surely last longer than twenty years. In the years ahead, China-US competition will most certainly intensify in that the US will take it as the last chance to bring down a rising power, writes Zhou Bo, speaker at the first session of the 18th Annual meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club, Senior Fellow, Centre for International Security and Strategy, Tsinghua University, Expert of the China Forum – Endless Competition, but not the Endless War
– Shlomo Ben-Ami writes for Project-Syndicate: While regime change in China is not impossible, it is not likely, and would almost certainly not lead to Western-style democracy if it occurred. Given this, the US should be seeking to mitigate the security threat China poses through collective security arrangements, not attempting to cause regime change – Learning to Manage the China Threat
