Diario geostrategico, 3 novembre 2021
Buona lettura !
The Science of Where Magazine’s interviews:
– Tecnologia e responsabilità: uno snodo decisivo. The Science of Where Magazine incontra Federico Cabitza, Università di Milano-Bicocca
– Inside the ethics of artificial intelligence: for a decentralized approach. The Science of Where Magazine meets James Brusseau, Philosopher, Pace University
– L’intelligenza artificiale contro le discriminazioni sul lavoro. The Science of Where Magazine incontra Keith Sonderling, Commissioner del U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission
– Per Italia e Germania, il futuro è nelle nuove tecnologie. Intervista esclusiva con l’Ambasciatore d’Italia a Berlino, Armando Varricchio
– Gathering strenght, gathering storms. Visions on artificial intelligence. The Science of Where Magazine meets Michael Littman and Peter Stone
Today’s Choice:
– Richard Cupitt, Stimson Center: Constrained and sometimes arbitrary financial support from member states to many international organizations, particularly those with critical international security functions, risks shortchanging their long-term confidence and makes balanced and objective planning difficult. For organizations devoted to countering the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, this can negatively impact the deliberation and diligence they require to investigate, analyze and act against state or other actors seeking to unbalance global security norms and architecture. The United States has a pivotal role to play in building support for a global WMD nonproliferation system that works to support U.S. national interests and global security. This will also necessarily involve building international consensus on institutions that do not provide good nonproliferation value-for-money, and seek to reform those organizations so they work towards the common good. – Undermining Efforts to Prevent the Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: International Governance on the Cheap
Africa:
– Akinwumi A. Adesina, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Vera Songwe, Ibrahim Assane Mayaki, Project-Syndicate: Almost two years into the COVID-19 pandemic, the unequal nature of the global response to the crisis is glaringly obvious. Whereas very few African countries have managed to spend the equivalent of even 1% of their GDP to combat this virtually unprecedented health emergency, Western economies have mustered over $10 trillion, or 30% of their combined GDP, to tackle it. Europe and the United States have fully vaccinated, respectively, 75% and 70% of their adult populations against COVID-19, but fewer than 6% of Africans have been vaccinated. And while some Western countries are already administering booster shots, Africa cannot get initial doses. – The COP26 Africa Needs
Australia:
– David Uren, The Strategist: Will soaring prices for coal, oil and gas speed their replacement by renewables or foster a surge of investment in fossil fuels? The new political economy of climate change is facing a head-on collision with the old-fashioned market economics driven by supply and demand in global energy markets. Australia finds itself uncomfortably at the point of impact. – Australia at the centre of tension between record fossil-fuel prices and the move to net zero
– Richard Keir, The Strategist: In a previous article, I talked about Australia’s changed threat environment and recommended that the government produce a national threat assessment with both classified and publicly accessible versions. In this follow-up, I’ll focus on what the process for developing such an assessment would look like. The benchmark for a national threat assessment is set by the US’s Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Notably, the leadership and enterprise management role of Australia’s Office of National Intelligence (ONI) was modelled on the US office. – Developing a national threat assessment for Australia
– Marcus Hellyer, The Strategist: Serious risks are being realised in the Royal Australian Navy’s twin transitions in its surface combatant and submarine fleets. As Australia’s strategic circumstances become more dangerous, Defence needs to adopt hedging measures to actively address the capability risks in its acquisition plans. The government’s recent announcement regarding the acquisition of nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs) is about addressing capability risks in the long term, but with delivery of the first future submarine now delayed probably to the late 2030s, in the short to medium term the proposal exacerbates those risks. – Delivering a stronger navy, faster
Central African Republic:
– UN News: Ten unarmed Egyptian peacekeepers from the UN Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) were shot and wounded on Monday. – 10 blue helmets injured during attack in Central African Republic
Central Asia:
– Ulugbek Khasanov, Valdai Discussion Club: The primary condition for a successful foreign and domestic policy is a constructive understanding of one’s place in the world and in the region, which allows for the pragmatic formulation and implementation of national development goals. In recent years, a new foreign policy strategy has been initiated in Uzbekistan, the key task of which is to create an atmosphere of trust, good-neighbourliness and cooperation in Central Asia. How this approach is being rolled out reflects the emergence of a new geopolitical reality. Strengthening cooperation and political trust between the countries of Central Asia are making it a more independent, predictable and stable region, with respect to world politics. – New Regionalism in Central Asia
China:
– Liu Xuanzun, Global Times: Signed by Xi Jinping, chairman of the Central Military Commission, a new set of regulations on military equipment procurement, focusing on war preparedness and combat capabilities, came into force on Monday, with analysts saying that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will acquire the best weapons and equipment that are most needed on future battlefields at a faster pace. – New regulations to provide PLA with rapid, combat-oriented equipment deliveries
China-Afghanistan:
– Cheng Shijie, Liu Xin, Zhang Han, Global Times: China-Afghanistan cargo trains have never stopped, trade of agricultural products between the two countries is being restored, and China will carry on listening to the call of the Afghan people to offer support within its ability, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin told a press conference on Tuesday. – China-Afghanistan freight trains never stop with farm product trade restored: FM
CSTO-Afghanistan:
– John C.K.Daly, The Jamestown Foundation: On October 18–23, the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which includes Afghanistan as an observer, held its Combat Brotherhood 2021 strategic military exercises, with three drills codenamed Echelon-2021, Search-2021 and Interaction-2021, in southern Tajikistan’s Momirak and Harb Maydon military ranges. The scale was substantial, involving more than 4,000 military personnel and more than 500 pieces of equipment, including L-39, Su-25, Su-24MR and Il-76TD aircraft, as well as Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopters (Avesta, October 25). The scope and scale of the operation by the CSTO’s Collective Rapid Reaction Forces, 12 miles from Tajik
istan’s 843-mile-long border with Afghanistan, highlighted growing concerns among the former Soviet Central Asian “Stans” regarding the security situation to their south. – CSTO ‘Combat Brotherhood 2021’ Exercises Send Strong Message to Afghanistan
Global Topics-Arms Control-Nuclear Peace-Nuclear Proliferation:
– Stimson Center: The geometry of nuclear competition has never been more complex. China’s nuclear force structure is growing rapidly. Russia and the United States have sloughed off treaties to facilitate freedom of action. Traditional arms control seems to be at an impasse. Some want nuclear prohibition; others demand ambitious agreements of far broader scope. The U.S. domestic consensus on treaty-making is broken. Arms control was the most significant unacknowledged diplomatic achievement of the Cold War, but it is now out of favor even as nuclear dangers rise. How did something so successful become so dispensable? Revival requires adaptation and ingenuity. Krepon details next steps and where we can go from here. – Winning and Losing the Nuclear Peace: The Rise, Demise, and Revival of Arms Control
– Stimson Center: In a one-on-one conversation with Stimson Center President Brian Finlay, Director General Rafael Grossi discussed current challenges to nuclear nonproliferation, the impact of the pandemic, and the IAEA’s ongoing work for the secure and peaceful use of nuclear technology. – Live Interview with International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi
– Khang Vu, The Interpreter: Relations between Russian and the United States have been rocky since the 2014 Crimean crisis. Washington imposed various sanctions on the Kremlin in the aftermath of the annexation, accusing it of violating Ukrainian sovereignty. US charges of Russian interferences in the 2016 and 2020 elections further hurt the already troubled ties. The two countries also withdrew from many strategic arms control agreements that formed the basis of post-Cold War strategic stability – two of which were the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and the Open Skies Treaty. – Arms control is not just about arms
Global Topics-Child Labour:
– UN News: Effective action and strong leadership are essential to end child labour by 2025, the head of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said on Tuesday. – Act now to stamp out child labour by 2025: FAO chief
Global Topics-COP26-Climate Action-Climate Change-Deforestation-Global Methane Pledge-Marine Plastic-Ecological Transition-Sustainable Ocean Economy-Sustainable Supply Chains-Vulnerable Nations-Water Supplies:
– Joe Myers, WEF: This round-up brings you everything you need to know about the COP26 climate summit, climate change and greenhouse gas emissions targets. Top stories: New plan to cut methane emissions; Queen Elizabeth II addresses COP26; India announces net-zero target. – COP26: Top news stories from the climate change summit on 2 November
– Kate Whiting, WEF: Some of the world’s biggest political and business leaders have met at COP26 in Glasgow ahead of the launch of the First Movers Coalition on 4 November. US President Joe Biden met EU President Ursula von der Leyen, US climate envoy John Kerry, World Economic Forum President Børge Brende and heads of businesses who have joined the platform to accelerate the decarbonization of heavy industries. – Biden announces First Movers Coalition ahead of COP26 launch
– UN News: Water and climate action must be integrated to ensure sufficient water supply in the face of a rising global population and environmental degradation, a coalition of world leaders said on Tuesday. – Integrate water supplies and climate action, world leaders urge
– UN News: With world leaders expressing hope that the goal of supplying $100 billion a year in climate finance support for developing countries is within reach, the UN Secretary-General warned on Tuesday that the target would likely not be met until 2023 and would require additional funding after that. – Guterres urges developed countries to deliver on climate pledge for vulnerable nations
– UN News: A pivotal pledge to save and restore our planet’s forests was officially announced on the second day of the COP26 World Leaders Summit, and with that deal came a long list of commitments from public and private sector actors to combat climate change, curb biodiversity destruction and hunger, and to protect indigenous peoples’ rights. – World leaders, corporations at COP26, take major step to restore and protect forests
– US Department of State: Today, the United States, the European Union, and partners formally launched the Global Methane Pledge, an initiative to reduce global methane emissions to keep the goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius within reach. A total of over 100 countries representing 70% of the global economy and nearly half of anthropogenic methane emissions have now signed onto the pledge. – United States, European Union, and Partners Formally Launch Global Methane Pledge to Keep 1.5C Within Reach
– US Department of State: During the World Leaders Summit at COP26, the United States announced plans to join the High-Level Panel for a Sustainable Ocean Economy (“Ocean Panel”). This multi-national initiative is harnessing the power of the ocean to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, provide jobs and food security, improve climate resilience, and sustain biological diversity. – Joining the High-Level Panel for a Sustainable Ocean Economy
– ESA: The climate crisis is the most urgent challenge faced by humankind – affecting every region, continent, and ocean on Earth. Space has an untapped potential to make a difference in tackling the threats and challenges faced by humanity. Satellites watch over Earth continuously, helping us to monitor, understand, model, predict and act on climate change and its related challenges. – Space for a Green Future
– ESA: Marine plastic litter was dumped into a realistic scale model of the Atlantic Ocean to test if space technologies would be able to detect it from orbit. – Hunting for marine plastic
– US Department of State: At COP26 during the World Leaders Summit’s Forest Day session on November 2, 2021, the United States launched the Forest Finance Risk Consortium (FFRC). The Consortium will bring together financial institutions and experts in forest monitoring and climate finance disclosure to better assess and disclose exposure to forest-related emissions in investment portfolios. – Forest Finance Risk Consortium Establishment at COP26
– US Department of State: At COP26 during the World Leaders Summit’s Forest Day session on November 2, 2021, the United States launched the Forest Investor Club. This network of leading public and private financial institutions and other investors aims to unlock and scale up investments that support sustainable, climate-aligned outcomes in the land sector. These financial institutions and Network Partners are committed to increasing the scale and geographic scope of investment in restoration, conservation, sustainable agriculture and forestry, and green infrastructure. – Forest Investor Club Establishment at COP26
– Joe Myers, WEF: United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres warned on Friday that we’re ‘careening towards climate catastrophe‘. Pope Francis also warned on Friday that leaders must give ‘concrete hope’ to future generations that they’re taking the steps needed to tackle climate change. – COP26: Top news stories from the climate change summit on 1 November
– Edward Fu, WEF: The combination of the COVID-19 pandemic and worsening climate change have strained supply chains past their breaking point, and the challenge of resiliency and access to life-critical goods is more important than ever. Supply chains all over the world are failing under the weight of increasing demand, limiting access to goods and services. And as customers increasingly expect on-demand, next-day or same-day delivery, our existing ground vehicle-based logistics network is growing increasingly inefficient and unsustainable. Investment in new forms of resilient and sustainable infrastructure is critical to the long-term success of global logistics. – Autonomous drone networks are a faster route to sustainable supply chains
– Al Jazeera: More than 100 countries promised to halt and reverse forest loss and land degradation by the end of 2030, underpinned by $19bn in public and private funds to invest in protecting and restoring forests. The joint statement issued at the COP26 climate talks in Glasgow late on Monday was backed by the leaders of countries including Brazil, Russia, Indonesia and Democratic Republic of the Congo, which collectively account for 85 percent of the world’s forests. – COP26: More than 100 countries pledge to end deforestation by 2030
Global Topics-Freedom of the Press:
– US Department of State: A free and independent press holds leaders accountable, protects the rights of citizens, and ensures our communities are well informed. In too many countries, journalists face the threat of violence or imprisonment for their reporting. The United States condemns threats, harassment, and violence targeting journalists and media workers. Increasingly, these threats come from governments reaching beyond their borders, including through misuse of digital surveillance tools that track journalists’ communications and whereabouts, to constrain the ability of journalists to report on government corruption or repression. No members of the press should be threatened, harassed, physically attacked, or arrested for doing their job. – The International Day to End Impunity for Crimes against Journalist
Global Topics-West:
– Ivan Timofeev, Valdai Discussion Club: Moreover, there is a very deep intellectual tradition of viewing the West as a deteriorating and doomed community. It’s enough to recall Nietzsche’s “God Is Dead”, Spengler’s “Decline of the West”, and the discussion about the “Decay of the West” in Russian political philosophy to observe powerful arguments in favour of the death of the capitalist West, both in Marxism and in the modern concepts of neo-Marxists about the “future demise of the capitalist world system”. The conceptual scheme of the waning of the West fits well with the media coverage. The collapse of the Western coalition in Afghanistan, protests and even riots in the United States and Europe, political intrigues between the closest allies, and the erosion of the cultural code against the background of migration flows, and much, much more. – Decline of the West? Pros and Cons
India-China:
– Wang Qi, Global Times: India, the world’s third-largest carbon emitter, has finally outlined its commitment on climate change, as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2070 at the COP26 in Glasgow, the UK. – India sets 2070 as net-zero target, urged to work with China
Latin America:
– Andrés Velasco, Project-Syndicate: Latin Americans have many talents. One is a remarkable ability to misgovern ourselves, as the pandemic has made clear. Six of the 20 countries with the most COVID-19 deaths per capita in the world are in Latin America. Peru tops the list. Brazil is eighth. – Latin America’s Monster Movie
Madagascar:
– UN News: “We have some pockets of IPC 5 or famine-like conditions, this is basically the only – maybe the first – climate change famine on earth,” said Arduino Mangoni, WFP Deputy Country Director in Madagascar, citing IPC food insecurity assessments, which are used to gauge the level of emergency aid required. After a recent “heartbreaking” visit to an emergency nutrition centre in the south, the WFP official said that he had encountered “silence, no joy; kids just staring at you and in a situation now, really skin and bones. “I have been working with the WFP in several countries in this continent, in several emergencies, including DRC, the Central African Republic, in Darfur, I have never seen kids in the situation they are in.” – In Madagascar, pockets of famine as risks grow for children, warns WFP
Palestine:
– Zena Al Tahhan, Al Jazeera: A new open-source online platform has been launched to centralise digital rights violations and censorship by social media companies against Palestinians and Palestine-related content. In a news conference in Ramallah on Monday, the Arab Center for Social Media Development (7amleh), which built the website, said the tool will allow for more detailed and proficient documentation of violations, and rights groups to better follow-up with relevant social media companies over posts, pages, or accounts that have been singled out. – New platform documents digital censorship of Palestinians
Russia:
– Pavel K. Baev, The Jamestown Foundation: The back-to-back international summits of the G20 in Rome and COP26 in Glasgow at the end of October brought together hosts of dignitaries and hordes of activists, but one global leader was conspicuously absent—Russian President Vladimir Putin. One week prior, at the annual gathering of the Valdai Club (October 18–21), he not only decried the ostensible crisis of Western capitalism but also dismissed the search for global solutions to global problems as unrealistic (Kremlin.ru, October 21; see EDM, October 25). His recipe for addressing the challenges of global disorder is based on strengthening the centrality of the state, an old idea that potentially would have been more convincing coming from Putin were the Russian state successful in countering the double disasters of climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic at home. However it has not been (see EDM, May 26, July 6, September 30, October 28); and this abject failure gives new energy to the cause of strengthening the unity and leadership of democratic states, as championed by United States President Joseph Biden. – Spurning Pair of International Summits, Putin Denounces Globalization
Russia-Ukraine:
– Peter Dickinson, Atlantic Council: “Russia’s foreign minister accused Ukrainian leaders on Monday of trying to drag Moscow into the conflict in eastern Ukraine, following an escalation in fighting between government forces and rebels in the breakaway region.”. The above text reads like a masterclass in Kremlin disinformation, but in fact it was published by international news agency Reuters on November 1, 2021, more than seven-and-a-half years since the onset of Russian military aggression again Ukraine. In its introductory sentence of just 33 words, the Reuters report manages to validate the Big Lie underpinning Putin’s Ukraine War, namely that the conflict is an exclusively Ukrainian internal affair and Russia is an innocent bystander. – Putin’s Ukraine War: Russian MP recalls efforts to push civil war myth
Sudan:
– Abdelwahab El-Affendi, Al Jazeera: On October 25, the Sudanese military carried out a coup, announcing the dissolution of the power-sharing Sovereignty Council and the transitional government. It arrested Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and declared a state of emergency. In a statement, Sudan’s top general Abdel Fattah al-Burhan said the army had to step in because political rivalries “stirred up strife” and could lead to civil war. Al-Burhan’s move has earned near-unanimous international condemnation and stiff opposition at home, as huge protests continue to be organised. – Sudan’s states of exception
Turkey:
– Pinar Tremblay, Al Monitor: Turkish Minister of Interior Suleyman Soylu gave a speech addressing Turkey’s female mukhtars. Mukhtars are elected neighborhood administrators, and there are over 50,000 of them throughout the country. This group generates a significant support network for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). At this gathering, Soylu mentioned their battle against drug dealers and said he gets complaints from authorities who cannot destroy abandoned buildings without court orders, which they say are being used by drug dealers. Advising the mukhtars to destroy the buildings in the middle of the night so “who would know who had done it?” Soylu said, “You demolish those buildings and a court order will follow.” Female mukhtars happily cheered. – Legal ambiguity becomes the norm in Erdogan’s Turkey
UK:
– Christopher Hobbs, Stimson Center: This country update provides insights into how the United Kingdom protects its civil nuclear materials, facilities, and other assets, drawing on interviews with government officials and industry practitioners. As a mature nuclear country, the UK has decades of experience implementing nuclear security at a wide range of facilities. Rather than attempt to summarize this in its entirety, this update focuses on three important and recent developments – the adoption of a goal-setting approach to nuclear security regulation; increased efforts to develop nuclear security culture programmes within industry; and the UK’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Exploring these topics in detail can provide useful lessons that may be relevant to other countries. After providing a brief overview of the UK’s nuclear sector, this memo then considers the UK’s nuclear security regulatory transition, before exploring how industry has sought to strengthen security culture, and then finally examining how security has been affected by COVID-19. – INSF Country Update: United Kingdom Nuclear Security
Ukraine:
– Nicholas Bell, Lukas Straumann, Atlantic Council: In September 2021, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared his determination to host the Winter Olympics in Ukraine. This followed on from Zelenskyy’s earlier comments in 2019 that Ukraine “has the potential to become the Alps of Eastern Europe.”. The problem with such ambitious statements is that Ukraine completely lacks the necessary infrastructure. The country would need to sacrifice one of Europe’s most remarkable and bio-diverse wilderness areas in order to create the necessary new ski resorts in the Carpathians, in particular in the Svydovets region. – Ukraine’s dangerous Winter Olympic obsession
USA:
– Brandi Vincent, Defense One: In the near term, Defense Information Systems Agency officials plan to strategically employ artificial intelligence capabilities for defensive cyber operations. “First of all, the threat has never been higher. It’s also been commoditized: Malware has become commercialized as essentially organized crime on an international scale,” Deputy Commander of the Joint Force Headquarters-Department of Defense Information Network Rear Adm. William Chase III, told reporters during a media roundtable last week. “So, one of the first questions we have to ask ourselves is: ‘What are we actually vulnerable to?’” – DISA Enlists AI to Fight Cyber Threats
USA-Afghanistan:
– Amra Sabic-El-Rayess, Al Jazeera: One recurring theme in the media coverage of the US pullout from Afghanistan is that after 20 years, trillions of dollars, and thousands of lives lost, we left the country in the same broken state it was before we arrived. “We accomplished nothing,” goes the pundit refrain. But that is wrong. We invaded Afghanistan “to prevent it from becoming a breeding ground for terrorists” – and we did not leave it as it was. We left it worse. Far worse. As a survivor of genocide and an academic studying the ways that education can resuscitate broken countries and people, I have repeatedly seen how even the most tolerant Muslims can end up being radicalised under the right set of conditions. – The US did more to radicalise Afghanistan than Osama bin Laden
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