Diario geostrategico, 4 novembre 2021
Buona lettura !
The Science of Where Magazine’s interviews:
– Tecnologia e responsabilità: uno snodo decisivo. The Science of Where Magazine incontra Federico Cabitza, Università di Milano-Bicocca
– Inside the ethics of artificial intelligence: for a decentralized approach. The Science of Where Magazine meets James Brusseau, Philosopher, Pace University
– L’intelligenza artificiale contro le discriminazioni sul lavoro. The Science of Where Magazine incontra Keith Sonderling, Commissioner del U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission
– Per Italia e Germania, il futuro è nelle nuove tecnologie. Intervista esclusiva con l’Ambasciatore d’Italia a Berlino, Armando Varricchio
– Gathering strenght, gathering storms. Visions on artificial intelligence. The Science of Where Magazine meets Michael Littman and Peter Stone
Today’s Choice:
– Angelo Alù, Agenda Digitale: Mentre gli Stati sono alle prese con gli adempimenti della “routine” istituzionale quotidiana spesso senza un’idea di futuro su come sarà la società nei prossimi decenni, da Mark Zuckerberg arriva una prospettiva organica e audace di evoluzione dell’umanità che riflette (di certo tra luci e ombre) la configurazione di un nuovo sistema interoperabile e decentralizzato dalle implicazioni economiche, sociali e politiche senza precedenti. Il progetto, ormai lo sappiamo tutti, è il Metaverso e quali che siano le ragioni che hanno spinto il CEO di Facebook a lanciarlo proprio ora – semplice riposizionamento del brand o vera e ripulitura dell’immagine dell’azienda dopo le ultime dure accuse sugli effetti collaterali da dipendenza algoritmica – sta di fatto che si tratta di un obiettivo tecnologico ambizioso, che vale la pena cercare di comprendere. – Perché il Metaverso potrebbe (davvero) essere la nuova “internet revolution”
Afghanistan:
– UN News: Human rights defenders in Afghanistan report that they are now enduring a “climate of fear”, threats, and becoming increasingly desperate over conditions in the country, an independent UN expert said on Wednesday. – ‘Climate of fear’ prevails for human rights defenders in Afghanistan
Afghanistan-USA:
– Paul Stronski, East Asia Forum: The Taliban’s victory in Afghanistan is transforming the regional landscape and unnerving neighbouring countries. Central Asian countries face migration flows, humanitarian challenges and political uncertainty. The post-American Afghanistan also provides Moscow and Beijing, as well several other regional powers like Tehran and Islamabad, with opportunities to enhance regional engagement as the world moves towards multipolarity. – How Taliban victory will reshape regional dynamics in Central Asia
Belarus:
– Grigory Ioffe, The Jamestown Foundation: An epiphenomenon is a secondary effect or byproduct that arises from but does not causally influence a process—so in a way, it is an occurrence whose significance is blown out of proportion. Social life and politics are replete with such epiphenomena. They regularly garner all the attention, especially when nothing else of essence is taking place, but do not contribute at all to, for instance, resolving real problems or alleviating a crisis. Still, epiphenomena can be quite edifying because public opinion leaders and influencers revealingly project their attitudes onto them, thus illuminating the broader socio-political landscape. At the end of October, at least five such telling examples could be observed in Belarus. – Epiphenomena in the Belarusian Political Crisis
China-USA:
– Cai Penghong, East Asia Forum: China’s application to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is prompting domestic and international discussion. People are asking questions about Beijing’s motivations, the obstacles China must overcome before ascension and the entry requirements it must meet to gain membership. – China and the United States can play a positive-sum game on the CPTPP
Ethiopia:
– UN News: All parties involved in the escalating conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray must stop fighting immediately, or else risk pushing the region’s catastrophic humanitarian situation “over the edge”, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, said on Wednesday. – End war now before it’s too late for Ethiopians, UN rights chief urges fighters
Europe:
– Sebastian Sprengher, Defense News: As chief executive of the European Defence Agency in Brussels, former Czech defense minister Jiří Šedivý is tasked with running the engine room of the bloc’s defense-cooperation look that member states play along. He talked with Defense News Europe editor Sebastian Sprenger about what’s next with two of the European Union’s key instruments for driving more capable defense forces: the collection of projects under the banner of permanent structured cooperation, or PESCO, and the newly approved European Defence Fund. In the end, he argues, his job entails boosting the capability of the “West,” as the United States finds itself having to focus increasingly on Asia. – ‘We are in a very crucial period’: European Defence Agency boss on collective defense
Europe-Taiwan:
– Erin Hale, Al Jazeera: A European Parliament delegation has arrived in Taiwan to discuss the self-ruled island’s experience in fighting disinformation and foreign interference in its democracy, media, culture and education. Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs welcomed the seven-member group on Wednesday, describing it as the “first official delegation dispatched by the European Parliament to Taiwan in history, which is of great significance”. – EU legislators make historic visit to Taiwan amid China concerns
France:
– Vivienne Machi, Defense News: The French Navy’s nuclear submarine Perle has returned to sea following just about a year of work to repair its fire-damaged body and splice it together with a second boat. In late October, the 26-year-old nuclear attack submarine departed Cherbourg Naval Base, where it has been undergoing repairs by manufacturer Naval Group since October 2020, and returned to the service’s main base in Toulon, French Ministry of Defense spokesman Hervé Grandjean told reporters. – The French Navy’s damaged nuclear sub is out at sea once more
Germany-USA-Europe:
– Vivienne Machi, Defense News: Two Eurofighter aircraft belonging to the German Air Force sped down the runway on a perfectly autumnal October morning at Neuburg Air Base, about 60 miles north of Munich. One was flown by the service’s top military officer, Lt. Gen. Ingo Gerhartz, while the other carried U.S. Air National Guard Director Lt. Gen. Michael Loh. The aircraft spent about an hour above the clouds in German airspace, as Gerhartz wanted to demonstrate some of the capabilities of the “fourth-generation-plus” Eurofighter to his U.S. colleague. But the visit also served as the kickoff event for the two air chiefs to begin planning a new major air-to-air exercise, to take place in Europe within two years. – Germany, US plan major aerial drill to defend Europe
Global Topics-Cities:
– UN News: Mayors of Mexico City, Bogotá, New Orleans, Freetown, Gaziantep and Barcelona joined other urban leaders, designers, activists and thinkers from around the world on Wednesday, to chart a new path for cities. – Urban leaders, influencers, chart new path for world cities
Global Topics-COP26-Climate Action-Climate Change-Ecological Transition:
– Saemoon Yoon, WEF: As world leaders meet in COP26, we asked tech pioneers their solutions for climate action. Their ideas leverage technology to address issues in industries including healthcare, transportation and regulation. – COP26: Entrepreneurs share solutions for climate action
– Joe Myers, WEF: This round-up brings you everything you need to know about the COP26 climate summit, climate change and greenhouse gas emissions targets. Top stories: US President Joe Biden announces First Movers Coalition; more than 100 countries join pact to slash methane emissions; Britain and India announce plan to connect world’s green power grids. – COP26: Top news stories from the climate change summit on 3 November
– UN News: It’s ‘Finance Day’ at COP26, and the spotlight is on a big announcement: nearly 500 global financial services firms agreed on Wednesday to align $130 trillion – some 40 per cent of the world’s financial assets – with the climate goals set out in the Paris Agreement, including limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. – COP26: ‘Not blah blah blah’, UN Special Envoy Carney presents watershed private sector commitment for climate finance
Global Topics-Cyber Security-Digital Transformation-Emerging and Disruptive Technology:
– Lelio Demichelis, Agenda Digitale: C’è il populismo digitale e c’è il conformismo digitale. Il peggio della vita reale sembra replicarsi in rete. Non è certo una novità, ma cos’è questa sorta di coazione a ripetere? Una ennesima eterogenesi dei fini? Il fatto che ci crediamo razionali ma siamo ingenui nel profondo? Oppure è business as usual e dunque anche le fake news e il conformismo che inducono e producono in rete sono una fonte di profitto capitalistico, dunque non si butta via niente, neppure il peggio del peggio? – Il grande business del conformismo digitale: come e perché si alimenta la disinformazione
– Daniela De Pasquale, Agenda Digitale: Nella moltitudine di acronimi che affollano l’ambiente digitale troviamo anche uno dei trend tecnologici segnalati da Gartner per il 2021: IoB, Internet of Behaviors. Citando Gartner, l’Internet of Behaviors (IoB) cattura la “polvere digitale” lasciata dalle persone nella loro quotidianità, traendola da una varietà di fonti. Queste informazioni possono essere usate da enti pubblici e privati per influenzare comportamento di tali soggetti. I dati provengono da numerose fonti, dai dati delle transazioni effettuate dai clienti, al riconoscimento facciale, ai dispositivi connessi. – Internet of Behaviors: chi raccoglie la nostra polvere (digitale) e quanto ci guadagna
– Matteo Gabrieli, Agenda Digitale: Nell’ultimo anno e mezzo si è affermato il fenomeno dei cosiddetti aggregatori di negozi Amazon FBA (fulfillment by Amazon), veri e propri fondi d’investimento hands on approach che acquistano aziende che realizzano una parte consistente del loro fatturato tramite Amazon FBA. Da dove nasce questo interesse e quali sono i vantaggi e i rischi? – I negozi Amazon FBA nel mirino dei fondi di investimento Usa e Ue: vantaggi e rischi
– Valter Fraccaro, Agenda Digitale: Per migliorare l’equilibrio del pianeta, è giunta l’ora di abbracciare un modello di sviluppo sostenibile e l’intelligenza artificiale ci può essere una grande alleata. – Sviluppo sostenibile, l’intelligenza artificiale ci aiuta a centrare il modello giusto
– Gianpiero Ruggiero, Agenda Digitale: È possibile prevedere il ritmo con cui cambieranno le tecnologie? Entro quale anno una tecnologia potrebbe superare un’altra? Essere in grado di rispondere a queste domande potrebbe fare la differenza per imprese, investitori e decisori politici. È quanto hanno provato a fare in America un gruppo di ricercatori che, utilizzando sia pool di dati precedentemente non sfruttati che nuovi metodi analitici, vale a dire algoritmi predittivi di intelligenza artificiale, hanno condotto una ricerca sull’innovazione e sono giunti a determinare quali tecnologie miglioreranno in futuro e quanto velocemente lo faranno nei prossimi anni. Se funzionano, questi algoritmi di previsione dell’innovazione aiuteranno a prendere decisioni più informate sui settori nei quali sarà più conveniente indirizzare denaro, tempo e attenzione, a beneficio di venture capitalist, leader aziendali e pianificatori di politiche governative. Il tutto orientato a determinare obiettivi di sviluppo e di crescita economica dettati da una visione più attenta ai sui effetti in termini di benessere umano. – L’algoritmo che svela la velocità di cambiamento delle tecnologie: come funziona e a cosa serve
– Diego Campagnolo, Carlo Scarpa, Alessandro Vasta, Agenda Digitale: Nel corso degli ultimi due anni il processo di digitalizzazione delle aziende, legato in particolare anche a progetti di internazionalizzazione delle stesse, è stato notevolmente accelerato anche per l’avvento della pandemia. Le imprese si sono trovate a dover fare i conti con l’urgenza di raggiungere nuovi mercati per l’espansione del proprio business utilizzando nuovi strumenti che non prevedessero la presenza in loco ma che, al contempo consentissero un’adeguata copertura, presenza e monitoraggio in loco. Anche il PNRR punta molto sulla digitalizzazione delle imprese italiane e per poter competere all’estero non basta più il know how è necessario dotarsi di strumenti tecnologici adeguati. La ricerca “Be International. Be Digital” a cura di Cuoa Business School con Tonucci & partners e Bonucchi e associati, avviata nel 2018 su dieci case study di aziende venete, permette di riflettere sulla situazione. – Aziende più digitali, ma ecco i problemi irrisolti: la ricerca
Global Topics-Global Aid-Development Finance:
– Akihiko Nishio, Gaiv Tata, Brookings: COVID-19 has delayed plans and progress worldwide, especially in developing countries, where complex challenges existed even before the pandemic. For these countries, external finance—particularly development assistance—has been a source of support for economic transformation, and progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). To understand how to address financing needs emerging from this unprecedented crisis, we need to look at the evolution of the global aid architecture over the past two decades. – How the structure of global aid and development finance is changing
India:
– Ramesh Pandey, ORF: Forests can be both net emitters or net sinks of carbon. Parallely, the release of carbon from forests can be due to natural processes such as oxidation and reduction, or practices such as deforestation and forest fires. Approximately 25 percent of global emissions come from the land sector, the second largest source of greenhouse gas emissions after the energy sector and about half of these (5-10 GtCO2e annually) comes from deforestation and forest degradation. – Rebooting the forests and tree cover agenda for climate action
India-ASEAN-Indo Pacific:
– Harsh V. Pant, Pratnashree Basu, ORF: With a huge market and the busiest maritime shipping lanes, the Indo-Pacific houses aspiring economies alongside other countries outside the region who have a stake in the peace and stability of the Indo-Pacific. It is no wonder, therefore, that various combinations of bilateral, mini-lateral, and multi-lateral cooperation forums have sprung up in alignment with common interests and concerns. With this rose a demand for countries like Japan, Australia, and also India to assume a greater visibility and engagement and, in doing so, to also offer alternative sources of collaboration to countries who have remained heavily reliant on China. In this context, the evolving role of India—which had been steadily growing in recent years—calls for understanding and assessment as the pandemic has arguably accelerated the pace of India’s participation in the Indo-Pacific. – India in the Indo-Pacific: China, COVID-19, and the reconfigured regional order
– Harsh V. Pant, Shashank Mattoo, ORF: It was a busy last month in the Indo-Pacific. In the span of a few short days, global leaders convened for the annual Asean and East Asia Summits, chaired by Brunei. These summits, long the focus of major foreign policy action in Southeast Asia, took place against the backdrop of the still-raging Covid-19 pandemic, heightened rivalry between the United States and China as well as the Aukus nuclear submarine pact. The controversy surrounding the exclusion of Myanmar’s military junta also loomed large over the summit. – Summitry in the East and India’s Asean ambitions
India-GCC:
– ORF: Boasting a gilded heritage of trade ties going back to the Dilmun and Indus Valley civilisations, the Gulf states, united under the umbrella of the Gulf Cooperation Council, and India have emerged as crucial strategic, economic, and cultural partners. The multidimensional challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic across the world, however, did not leave the partners untouched. While the Indian economy contracted by over 7 percent in 2020, the GCC, then experiencing bearish growth due to the tanking oil prices, shrunk by nearly 5 percent in the same period. – India-GCC: Prospects for post-pandemic trade cooperation and economic recovery
Indonesia:
– Alexander R. Arifianto, East Asia Forum: Indonesia’s largest Islamic organisation, Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), recently announced that its long-postponed national congress (Muktamar) will finally be held from 23 to 25 December 2021 in Lampung City, Sumatra. The Muktamar is the organisation’s most important meeting. It is normally held once every five years but had to be postponed due to COVID-19. – Indonesian democracy needs a moderate Nahdlatul Ulama
Israel:
– UN News: Israel’s plan to build thousands of new homes for Jewish settlers in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem has drawn strong condemnation from two independent experts appointed by the UN Human Rights Council. – Israel settlement expansion ‘tramples’ on human rights law, experts contend
– Bradley Bowman, Brig. Gen. Jacob Nagel (ret.), Ryan Brobst, Defense News: Israel flexed its military and political muscle last month, hosting its largest and most advanced air force exercise ever. The Blue Flag 2021 exercise included dozens of fighter aircraft from at least eight major countries and a landmark visit from the chief of the United Arab Emirates Air Force. The exercise provided flight crews an opportunity to share best practices, improve interoperability, and refine the integration of fourth- and fifth-generation fighter aircraft operations. Much to the chagrin of those who seek to delegitimize, isolate and attack Israel, the exercise also demonstrated growing international respect for Israel as a regional leader and military power with deep operational experience. – Blue Flag exercise has Israel’s enemies seeing red
– Seth J. Frantzman, Defense News: The Trophy active protection system has completed a series of interception tests in Germany as part of the country’s plan to safeguard its Leopard tanks, according to the APS manufacturer Rafael Advanced Defense Systems. The Israeli government said the system achieved a threat interception rate exceeding 90 percent. – Trophy interceptor undergoes live-fire tests on Germany’s Leopard tanks
Italy:
– Tom Kington, Defense News: A European naval program worth €6 billion (U.S. $7 billion) to build a new corvette is picking up speed this autumn as naval chiefs throw their weight behind it, even as experts warn the long awaited consolidation of Europe’s fragmented naval industry still faces stiff headwinds. The European Patrol Corvette, or EPC, got a vote of confidence in October as navy representatives from Italy, France, Greece and Spain met remotely with industry chiefs to thrash out details of the four-nation program. – Amid high hopes, can the European Patrol Corvette deliver?
– Tom Kington, Defense News: The first Kuwaiti Eurofighters with new electronically scanned radars onboard took to the skies in Italy in October for test flights, as engineers in the U.K. provided fresh details on the e-scan radar version they are developing for the RAF’s Typhoons. With progress being made on yet another version for Germany and Spain’s fighters, the Typhoon now has not one but three e-scan radars in the works after years of delays. – New radar kits abound for the Eurofighter fleet
Libya:
– Omer Karasapan, Brookings: The U.N.-brokered process in Libya focused on the withdrawal of foreign mercenaries and parliamentary and presidential elections in December 2021 remains fragile. Still, the High National Elections Committee said that nominations for the presidency would start in November with voting cards distributed within weeks. Much is uncertain, including the powers of the presidency.
Aside from token moves, those who remain include mercenaries brought in by Russia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and others to support General Haftar’s eastern-based Libyan National Army (LNA) and those brought in by Turkey, the main supporter of the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli. Reconciliation appears far off but there has at least been a respite of over a year from fighting. – Libya’s migrants and crimes against humanity
Lithuania-Polonia:
– Paul Globe, The Jamestown Foundation: Since Soviet times, Russian analysts have mused about the possibility that Germany might try to recover Kaliningrad, or East Prussia as it was known before Joseph Stalin seized it at the end of World War II. Later, during the 1990s, they focused on the risk that the non-contiguous Russian oblast might break away and form a fourth Baltic republic. Most recently, they have suggested that in the event of a military conflict between Moscow and the West, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) might seize Kaliningrad in order to launch a broader attack on the Russian Federation (see EDM August 2, 2017, July 6, 2019, October 12, 2021). These concerns, apparently, have not disappeared. But they have been joined and even eclipsed by others, including fears that Lithuania and Poland supposedly have their own plans for undermining Moscow’s control of the oblast, hoping to eventually seize it for themselves. Both of these neighboring Baltic littoral countries have viewed the territory presently occupied by Kaliningrad as historically theirs. – Lithuania and Poland Want to ‘Recover’ Kaliningrad, Russian Analysts Say
NATO:
– Vivienne Machi, Defense News: NATO has officially kicked off two new efforts meant to help the alliance invest in critical next-generation technologies and avoid capability gaps between its member nations. For months, officials have set the ground stage to launch a new Defense Innovator Accelerator — nicknamed DIANA — and establish an innovation fund to support private companies developing dual-use technologies. Both of those measures were formally agreed upon during NATO’s meeting of defense ministers last month in Brussels, said Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. – NATO ups the ante on disruptive tech, artificial intelligence
Russia-India:
– Sergey Sukhankin, The Jamestown Foundation: In late September, Russia’s first Floating Storage Regasification Unit (FSRU)—specifically designed for emergency transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) via the Baltic Sea to Kaliningrad Oblast—successfully delivered its initial load of LNG from the Yamal LNG production facility to India’s Dabhol seaport. The vessel, called the Marshal Vasilevskiy, traversed the eastern part of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in ten days without the use of icebreakers (Interfax, September 24). It carried 505 cubic meters of the specially liquefied fuel. – Russian LNG Shipments to India: Strategic Implications and Long-Term Prospects
Turkey-Syrians:
– Umar Farooq, Al Jazeera: Taha Elgazi says he is on a mission to meet anyone who hates refugees. The 37-year-old fled the war in Syria in 2013 for Turkey, leaving behind his home in Deir Az Zor and a dream of obtaining a doctorate in cosmology. He has made important strides over the years in Istanbul, teaching physics for a time in schools for Syrian children, and being chosen as a skilled enough professional to obtain Turkish nationality, something fewer than 200,000 of 3.7 million Syrians like him in the country have been able to gain. – Uncertainty for Syrians in Turkey as opposition warms to Assad
UK:
– Andrew Chuter, Defense News: General Dynamics’ land systems operation in Spain has already built half of the hulls for the British Army’s Ajax armored cavalry program, even as the future of the vehicle is threatened by noise and vibration problems. Responding to questions from Defense News, General Dynamics Land Systems UK has given a breakdown of its progress in producing Ajax at its factories in Wales and Spain as part of a firm-priced deal with the British signed in 2014 to produce 589 vehicles at a cost of up to £5.5 billion (€6.5 billion or U.S. $7.6 billion). – Shaken and stirred: British Army’s Ajax troubles cast a long shadow
USA:
– William A. Galston, Brookings: On May 25, 2020, a veteran Minneapolis police officer murdered George Floyd in full public view. A bystander’s video of the event triggered nationwide protests and demands to “defund the police.” Beneath the slogan, which proved politically unfortunate for Democrats, reformers worked to develop policies that would minimize the use of force by police and make everyday policing more respectful of minority communities. – Message from Minneapolis: Reform the police but don’t defund them
– Elaine Kamarck, Brookings: On the day after the 2021 off-year elections, Democrats woke up with a bad headache. The victories of 2018 and 2020 seemed like distant memories, and the future looked bleak indeed. But predicting the future from off-year elections is a little like reading the tea leaves—a murky and uncertain endeavor. Nonetheless, here’s what we can glean from what happened. – 5 lessons from election night 2021
– Gabriel R. Sanchez, Brookings: Due to the pandemic-driven economic recession, the federal government has been forced to respond to the sharp rise in housing challenges Americans have faced. This federal intervention is a critical lifeline for millions of Americans who are in danger of losing their homes. However, states across the country have faced challenges in distributing those funds to their residents. Recent data from the Treasury Department shows that only about eleven percent of the $46.5 billion allocated by Congress has been spent. In large states like New York, one of the places having
many challenges in distributing funds, there is the possibility of financial disaster given the high concentration of renters and high cost of living. – States under time crunch to provide housing assistance: How to fix it
– Kristen Broady, Mac McComas, and Amine Ouazad, Brookings: Achieving the American dream—the opportunity to succeed, to provide food and shelter for family members, education for children, hope for a better life, and freedom of opportunity— requires capital. But, in the United States, access to capital for individuals and business owners is uneven based on race. The racial wealth gap remains significant. In 2019, the median net worth of a typical white household, $188,200, was 7.8 times greater than that of a typical Black household, $24,100 (Bhutta et al., 2020). Most houses are bought with a mortgage and most businesses rely on credit to fund their expansion. – An analysis of financial institutions in Black-majority communities: Black borrowers and depositors face considerable challenges in accessing banking services
– Ali Harb, Al Jazeera: Hundreds erupted in cheers at a community centre in Dearborn as Abdullah Hammoud’s name with a checkmark next to it appeared on a giant screen, confirming that he will become the city’s first Arab-American mayor. Soon after, Hammoud took the stage as the crowd rushed towards the podium late on Tuesday with cell phones raised to document the moment that many described as “historic”. – Abdullah Hammoud: Michigan city elects its first Arab mayor
USA-Russia:
– ORF: On November 2, the Secretary of Russia’s National Security Council Nikolai Patrushev and CIA Director William Burns met to discuss various issues related to US-Russia ties. Burns’ two-day visit to Moscow with a senior-level delegation follows a series of engagement at various levels between the two countries since the Geneva summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden in June 2021. – Building ‘stable, predicable’ US-Russia ties: dream or reality?
Yemen:
– UN News: At least 8 children have reportedly been killed or injured in escalating violence in Yemen in the past five days. – Yemen: Four children killed or maimed a day, as war grinds on
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