Diario geostrategico, 18/19 novembre 2021
Buona lettura !
The Science of Where Magazine’s interviews:
– Towards sustainable AI. The Science of Where Magazine meets Abhishek Gupta, Founder and Principal Researcher, Montreal AI Ethics Institute
– The road to the “new normal” and the role of the G20. The Science of Where meets Priyadarshi Dash. Associate Professor at Research and Information System for Developing Countries (RIS), New Delhi, he has 14 years of experience in policy research on trade, investment, infrastructure and fintech issues in the context of G20, IORA, BIMSTEC and Indo-Pacific
– Governo dei dati tra geopolitica e tutela del cittadino. The Science of Where Magazine incontra Ivana Bartoletti, Global Chief Privacy Officer a WIPRO Technologies e Visiting Policy Fellow presso l’ Università di Oxford
– Tecnologia e responsabilità: uno snodo decisivo. The Science of Where Magazine incontra Federico Cabitza, Università di Milano-Bicocca
– Inside the ethics of artificial intelligence: for a decentralized approach. The Science of Where Magazine meets James Brusseau, Philosopher, Pace University
– L’intelligenza artificiale contro le discriminazioni sul lavoro. The Science of Where Magazine incontra Keith Sonderling, Commissioner del U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission
– Per Italia e Germania, il futuro è nelle nuove tecnologie. Intervista esclusiva con l’Ambasciatore d’Italia a Berlino, Armando Varricchio
– Gathering strenght, gathering storms. Visions on artificial intelligence. The Science of Where Magazine meets Michael Littman and Peter Stone
Today’s Choice:
– Louise Fox, Brookings: As the Glasgow COP26 meetings ended on Sunday, it quickly became clear that the region that will suffer the worst economic and social effects of rising temperatures—and that can least afford to cope with challenges climate change will bring—gained very little in Glasgow. Little agreement was reached on how to compensate African countries for the damage that centuries of fossil fuels and other emissions in rich countries will have on Africa’s development prospects owing to the current and future effects of climate change
. The unfairness of the current situation—where today’s rich countries reached the highest levels of material welfare the world has ever seen primarily by harnessing cheap energy from fossil fuels, but most of the negative consequences of this strategy will fall on the world’s poorest countries—demands compensatory financing from the Global North to the Global South, especially Africa. – Africa’s youth lost out in Glasgow
Asia:
– Shihoko Goto, East Asia Forum: When Taiwan made its bid to join the CPTPP in September, a week after China officially declared its interest in joining, there was speculation about the implications of the timing. Taipei could not afford to wait to request entry once Beijing got in the game. Yet the CPTPP is at the heart of mapping out Taiwan’s long-term survival, not just a means to remain competitive in global markets. – The CPTPP isn’t just a trade deal for Taiwan, it’s a survival plan
Belarus-Russia:
– Roger McDermott, The Jamestown Foundation: Belarus and Moscow have signed a new Union State Military Doctrine, though the document remains unpublished. This comes within the context of the Belarus crisis that began with President Alyaksandr Lukashenko’s disputed reelection on August 9, 2020, and recently worsened due to the migrant issues on the borders with Poland, Latvia and Lithuania. The Union State Military Doctrine is intended to replace its previous iteration from December 2001. The draft text was, in fact, already agreed in 2018 by the two countries at the defense ministry level (see EDM, December 11, 2018); but it remained unsigned for three years. However, in the aftermath of the Belarusian-Russian Zapad 2021 combined strategic exercise (sovmestnoe strategicheskoe uchenie), held on September 10–16, Moscow and Minsk undertook rapid steps to formalize the doctrine at the presidential level (Gazeta.ru, November 7). – The Belarus Crisis and the Union State Military Doctrine – Jamestown
Blue Dot Network:
– John Taishu Pitt, East Asia Forum: While the US-led Bretton Woods Institutions have been supporting infrastructure projects since the 1940s, there has been criticism in recent years that the United States has been inadequate in responding to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The Biden Administration should utilise the Blue Dot Network (BDN) to incentivise private investments in sustainable infrastructure projects in conjunction with the existing Bretton Woods Institutions. – Balancing accessibility and quality in Blue Dot Network infrastructure finance
China:
– Sitao Li, Sida Liu, East Asia Forum: In the 2010s, the Chinese judicial system underwent several reforms that attracted scholarly and public attention. These reforms were executed in the name of strengthening judicial autonomy and accountability. But the reforms were a mask for political motives and have had limited success. – The irony and efficacy of China’s judicial reforms
Climate Action:
– Susmita Dasgupta, Somik V. Lall, David Wheeler, Brookings: The recently published Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6) cautioned that climate change is already affecting every inhabited region of the globe, and the scale of recent changes is unprecedented on a millennial time scale. The discussions at COP26 highlighted the critical need for countries to accelerate reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and move toward net zero in the longer term. This will require large-scale climate finance, with private capital mobilization in the trillions of dollars through sustainability-linked bonds and impact investment, as countries make the transition to low carbon economies. These initiatives will need new performance metrics that measure GHG emissions reductions. – Deploying ‘sentinel satellites’ to monitor greenhouse gas emissions
– Samantha Gross, María Fernanda Espinosa, Brookings: We have been involved in climate negotiations and policy for nearly two decades. In that time, we’ve never seen so many new scientific analyses or so much media coverage. Street protests in Glasgow and elsewhere include angry calls for greater ambition, amid an awakening of young voices calling for intergenerational climate justice and responsibility. The Glasgow summit of the last two weeks was hyped as the world’s last best hope to save the climate, but such a lofty goal was never going to be achieved at one event. There is much more work for leaders to do before next year’s climate summit in Egypt. – At COP26, leaders got a climate reality check. Here’s what they must do next
– David G. Victor and Michael Panfil, Brookings: As the climate change conference concluded last week in Glasgow, one thing set it apart from all the other conferences before: The world’s bankers were there in force. In recent years, the world’s leading financial centers, and their regulators, have been talking a lot about
climate change. – Climate change will pose a huge disruption. Are the world’s banks ready?
Europe:
– Dan Peleschuk, Atlantic Council: Following years of steady democratic erosion, opposition-minded Hungarians are already girding for next year’s parliamentary elections—where they hope to finally unseat their populist and self-described illiberal prime minister, Viktor Orbán. Their chief hope? Péter Márki-Zay, an engineer-turned-politician who won last month’s opposition primary to head a joint multi-party ticket. Márki-Zay, currently a small-town mayor in central Hungary, joined the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center for a discussion Thursday as part of Central Europe Week to outline the situation facing his country. – ‘Hungary is not a democracy anymore,’ says opposition leader
– Tom Kington, Defense News: A plan by Italy’s Leonardo to sell off its naval and terrestrial cannon business as well as its torpedo operation has sparked a political row over the rival merits of maintaining national sovereignty and encouraging European integration. The Italian defense giant is looking at selling off cannon maker Oto Melara and torpedo maker WASS, with Franco-German joint venture KNDS reportedly keen to snap them up. – Protectionist instincts flare as venerable Italian cannon maker goes up for sale (defensenews.com)
Iran-Caspian Sea:
– Vali Kaleji, The Jamestown Foundation: In recent months, a series of analytical publications sparked fresh debate in Iran about the status of Iran’s oil and natural gas
reserves in the Caspian Sea as well as why it has still not taken greater efforts to exploit those resources. Namely, a piece in August predicted that a newly discovered offshore gas field—the so-called “Chalous Superstructure”—might be large enough to permit northern Iran to become a regional hub and start providing 20 percent of Europe’s gas needs (Kepco.ir, August 8). But separate analysis published the same month claimed that, based on a 20-year deal between Iran and the Russian Federation, Tehran was not in a position to engage in hard negotiations with the Kremlin regarding Iran’s share of Caspian offshore energy resources (Oil Price, August 19). A recent interview with Ardeshir Dadras, the president of Iran’s Syndicate of Compressed Natural Gas, seemed to echo that argument: “Iran and Russia had agreed that tapping the Iranian gas fields in the Caspian Sea would only be possible if Iran’s demand for gas exceeds its output. According to the agreement, Iran does not have the right to extract from eight large Caspian Sea gas fields located in Iranian waters” (ILNA, November 1). – Four Obstacles to Iranian Oil and Gas Production in the Caspian Sea
Middle East-Gulf:
– Agnes Helou, Defense News: Although not as abundant as drones, countermeasures against the unmanned systems are certainly prevalent at the 2021 Dubai Airshow, which is taking place Nov. 14-18. Two counter-drone systems showcased at the event reflect the United Arab Emirates’ interest in such technology: U.S.-based Fortem Technologies displayed its SkyDome, which is already operational in the Gulf country; and Emirati company International Golden Group showed off the Israeli system Skylock, which underwent testing in the UAE. – Counter-drone tech at Dubai Airshow reflects UAE’s interest in the capability
Pacific Islands:
– Ross Buckley and Anton Didenko, East Asia Forum: Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are widely considered the next stage in monetary evolution, having the potential to overcome long-standing challenges within the global currency and payments system. Our recent article explores the range of benefits they can offer, from ensuring that public money remains a dominant unit of account as private currencies emerge in increasing numbers to fostering financial inclusion of the unbanked and underbanked in our communities. More rigorous evaluation of their viability and fitness for purpose in countries with undeveloped digital and financial infrastructure needs to be undertaken. – Central bank digital currencies could solve Pacific banking problems
Space:
– ESA: Solar Orbiter is returning to Earth for a flyby before starting its main science mission to explore the Sun and its connection to ‘space weather’. During the flyby Solar Orbiter must pass through the clouds of space debris that surround our planet, making this manoeuvre the riskiest flyby yet for a science mission. – Solar Orbiter returns to Earth before starting its main science mission
– ESA: The world will be watching the milestone launch of NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test, DART, spacecraft on Wednesday, 24 November, intended to alter one small part of the Solar System forever. – Planetary defenders: after NASA’s DART comes ESA’s Hera
Turkic Council:
– Vasif Huseynov, The Jamestown Foundation: On November 12, Istanbul hosted the eighth summit of the Cooperation Council of Turkic Speaking States (Turkic Council), attended by the leaders of member states Turkey, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, and of observer states Hungary and Turkmenistan (Turkkon.org, November 12). The summit, dedicated this year to the theme of “Green Technologies and Smart Cities in the Digital Age,” covered a wide range of issues concerning the members and the future of the institution; and it also witnessed a series of important decisions. Above all, the official name of the grouping was changed to the “Organization of Turkic States” (OTS), and Turkmenistan officially joined the OTS as an observer. – In Istanbul, Turkic Council Members Eye Closer Cooperation and Deeper Integration
UK:
– Andrew Chuter, Defense News: Britain’s Royal Air Force has taken a landmark step towards slashing carbon emissions from its aircraft, announcing Nov. 17 that the service had completed the world’s first flight using 100 percent synthetic fuel together with commercial partner Zero Petroleum. Using the company’s UL91 fuel the flight of the Ikarus C42 microlight plane from Cotswold Airport on Nov. 2 lasted 21 minutes. – British Air Force hails first-ever test flight using only synthetic fuel
USA:
– Dany Bahar, Greg Wright, Brookings: Over the past several months, millions of American workers have opted out of the churn of low-paid, dead-end work, producing one of the tightest labor markets in modern history. This exodus has had wide-ranging effects on the economy, perhaps most notably the disruption of supply chains and a shortage of many consumer products. In the past week, we learned that these shortages led to the
largest year-on-year increase in inflation in over 30 years. Also worrisome is that Americans’ rejection of front-line work has created a bottleneck in the production chain that is limiting opportunities for these workers’ own advancement. When there are fewer pizza delivery drivers, there are also fewer managers needed to supervise them and fewer accountants needed to pay them. – Immigration as an engine for reviving the middle class in midsized cities
– Aaron Boyd, Nextgov: The Biden administration’s governing ethos for the next three to seven years will focus on the federal workforce, improvements to citizen services and better management of government time and resources, all of which will include a technology component, according to the White House. The Office of Management and Budget released a document Wednesday evening outlining the broad vision of the President’s Management Agenda, which sets up the guiding principles by which the Biden administration will operate. – Biden’s Management Agenda Highlights Need for High-Tech Federal Workforce
– Brandi Vincent, Nextgov: The government has long leaned on partnerships with companies and academia to advance technology, but according to one top cybersecurity leader, the complexities of the modern conflict landscape warrant cross-sector collaboration that goes deeper than any before. “I do think that there is a realization that we can’t do this alone,” Gen. Paul Nakasone said Tuesday night at an Intelligence and National Security Alliance-hosted dinner in Virginia. “So, this partnership has to exist—and it’s got to get even more powerful.” – NSA Director: Evolving Cyber Threats Require Deeper Public-Private Partnerships
– Alexandra Kelley, Nextgov: A survey featuring some of the United States’ top defense contractors suggests that about 20% of them are “highly susceptible” to a ransomware attack, with 42% having experienced a data breach in 2020 alone. This data comes from Black Kite, a cybersecurity research firm. Survey respondents included defense contractors working in financial services, health care, manufacturing, critical infrastructure and business services. Report authors evaluated each company on their cybersecurity protocols and procedures to determine an industrywide index grade across defense contractors. – Survey: 20% of Defense Contractors at Risk for Ransomware Attack
– Caitlin M. Kenney, Defense One: Top naval leaders attended a tabletop wargame Wednesday whose Pacific-conflict scenario was meant to help determine whether their decisions about capabilities and platforms have the Navy on the right path. “This is a gut check, really, I think, for senior leaders on: Are we going in the right direction, not only in terms of how we’re going to fight but, as I said earlier, what we’re going to fight with,” Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday said to reporters after the wargame concluded. – Are Naval Forces on the Right Path? Leaders Run Wargame to Check
– Nathan Strout, Defense News: The Air Force Research Laboratory has awarded Utah State University a $1 billion contract to support space-related research and technology development at its Space Dynamics Laboratory. Under the contract, the Space Dynamics Laboratory will continue to provide an outside source for essential space engineering and capability development as a University Affiliated Research Center, or UARC. – Air Force Research Laboratory awards university $1 billion for space technology research
– Joe Gould, Defense News: The Senate could consider the annual defense authorization bill as soon as Thursday after Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., abandoned a controversial push to merge it with sweeping China-focused legislation. The Senate late Wednesday voted 84-15 to advance debate on the National Defense Authorization Act, which sets policy and budget guidelines for the military. From there, Democrats are looking to cut a deal with Republicans to vote Thursday or for quick passage after the Senate returns from its Thanksgiving recess. – Senate turns to NDAA after de-linking China competition bill
– Stephen Losey, Defense News: The U.S. Air Force conducted a test of its Rapid Dragon palletized munition system concept Nov. 3, which could one day pave the way to launching a barrage of cruise missiles out of the back of mobility aircraft. The Air Force Research Laboratory said in a Tuesday release that it deployed a long-range cruise missile separation test vehicle — basically a cruise missile without its engine or warhead — from an MC-130J Commando II aircraft. – Got cruise missile-armed cargo planes? The US Air Force is nearly there
– William J. Perry, Tom Z. Collina, Defense News: President Joe Biden probably knows more about nuclear policy than any commander-in-chief in recent history. He served in the Senate for 36 years and was a long-time member of the Foreign Relations Committee. As vice president, he oversaw Senate approval of the 2010 New START arms control treaty and worked with then-President Barack Obama to seek an (as yet unfulfilled) no first use policy — a common-sense pledge the United States would never start a nuclear war. – To prevent nuclear war, President Biden should listen to Vice President Biden
USA-China:
– US-China Economic and Security Review Commission: Topics this year include the CCP’s ambitions and challenges at its centennial, China’s influence in Latin America and the Caribbean, the CCP’s economic and technological ambitions, the Chinese government’s evolving control of the corporate sector, U.S.-China financial connectivity and risks to U.S. national security, China’s nuclear forces, Chinese military capabilities and decision-making for a war over Taiwan, Hong Kong’s government embracing authoritarianism, and a review of economics, trade, security, political, and foreign affairs developments in 2021. – 2021 Annual Report to Congress
USA-Iran:
– Mariam Baksh, Nextgov: The cybersecurity agencies of the U.S., U.K. and Australia are urging critical infrastructure organizations to patch vulnerabilities in Microsoft and Fortinet products that they say hackers associated with Iran use in ransomware attacks. “FBI and CISA have observed this Iranian government-sponsored [advanced persistent threat] group exploit Fortinet vulnerabilities since at least March 2021 and a Microsoft Exchange ProxyShell vulnerability since at least October 2021 to gain initial access to systems in advance of follow-on operations, which include deploying ransomware,” reads an advisory the agencies jointly issued Wednesday. – Governments Warn Iran Is Targeting Microsoft and Fortinet Flaws to Plant Ransomware
USA-Russia:
– Tara Copp, Defense One: Russia’s direct ascent anti-satellite launch Monday is adding urgency to the U.S. Space Force’s efforts to better defend U.S. space assets, and has left the Pentagon questioning the implications of Russia’s decision to launch, even when it put its own cosmonauts in danger. “What we’re seeing Russia demonstrate is a weapon. If they can destroy a Russian satellite, they can destroy an American satellite,” U.S. Space Force Lt. Gen. Nina M. Armagno said Wednesday at the Ascend space conference in Las Vegas. “It’s not just Russia, it’s China as well.” – Pentagon Scrambles to Defend ‘Juicy Targets’ After Rivals’ Space Tests
– Ivana Stradner, Defense One: Andrei Ilnitsky, an advisor to the Russian defense minister, maintains that the U.S. is waging a “psychological war” against Russia. If only. Since the Cold War, America’s use of psychological operations, or psyops, has deteriorated amid a fixation on hard power. Russia, meanwhile, has achieved its greatest successes through psychological warfare. It is long past time for the U.S. military to catch up, update its psyops against Russia for the 21st century, and revive its once-robust tradition of winning hearts and minds. – The US Must Turn the Tables on Russia’s Psyops
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