Diario geostrategico, 30 novembre 2021
Buona lettura !
The Science of Where Magazine’s interviews:
– L’Intelligence tra rischio, cyber e passione. The Science of Where Magazine incontra Adriana Piancastelli Manganelli, OSINT Senior Analyst
– Towards sustainable AI. The Science of Where Magazine meets Abhishek Gupta, Founder and Principal Researcher, Montreal AI Ethics Institute
– The road to the “new normal” and the role of the G20. The Science of Where meets Priyadarshi Dash. Associate Professor at Research and Information System for Developing Countries (RIS), New Delhi, he has 14 years of experience in policy research on trade, investment, infrastructure and fintech issues in the context of G20, IORA, BIMSTEC and Indo-Pacific
– Governo dei dati tra geopolitica e tutela del cittadino. The Science of Where Magazine incontra Ivana Bartoletti, Global Chief Privacy Officer a WIPRO Technologies e Visiting Policy Fellow presso l’ Università di Oxford
– Tecnologia e responsabilità: uno snodo decisivo. The Science of Where Magazine incontra Federico Cabitza, Università di Milano-Bicocca
– Inside the ethics of artificial intelligence: for a decentralized approach. The Science of Where Magazine meets James Brusseau, Philosopher, Pace University
– L’intelligenza artificiale contro le discriminazioni sul lavoro. The Science of Where Magazine incontra Keith Sonderling, Commissioner del U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission
– Gathering strenght, gathering storms. Visions on artificial intelligence. The Science of Where Magazine meets Michael Littman and Peter Stone
Today’s Choice
– Daniel Castro, Center for Data Innovation: A chorus of voices in European politics have started echoing a common refrain: using personal data for targeted advertising tramples consumer rights and harms society and the only way to stop this injustice is to ban these types of ads. But those pushing for a ban are not the altruistic digital saviors they portray themselves to be. Instead, many of them have direct financial interests in creating a regulatory system that forces businesses to adopt their business model, even if it comes at the expense of consumer welfare. – How “Privacy Capitalism” Is Taking Over European Policy Debates
Afghanistan
– Syed Fazl-e-Haider, The Interpreter: Under the 2020 Doha Agreement, the US withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan was conditional on Taliban security assurances that Afghan territory would not be used as a launch pad by al-Qaeda or Islamic State for attacks against the United States. Similar accords seeking security promises from the Taliban are now expected from other countries in the region. The Taliban have all the cards in their hand to exploit the concerns of these regional players about the threat of terrorism spilling over from Afghanistan. Sooner or later, countries including Russia, China, Pakistan and India will be left with no choice but to recognise the Taliban government in Afghanistan as a result of these security concerns. – The Doha accord and Taliban legitimacy
Artificial Intelligence
– Sarah Kreps, Brookings: Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have lowered the barrier to entry for both its constructive and destructive uses. Just a few years ago, only highly resourced states and state-sponsored groups could develop and deploy AI-empowered drones, cyberattacks, or online information operations. Low-cost, commercial off-the-shelf AI means that a range of nonstate actors can increasingly adopt these technologies. – Democratizing harm: Artificial intelligence in the hands of nonstate actors
ASEAN-AUKUS
– Dino Patti Djalal, East Asia Forum: When news of the AUKUS agreement broke on 16 September 2021, it caught everyone in Southeast Asia by surprise. While its understood that AUKUS is not an alliance, it had portent to agitate the strategic landscape for ASEAN. – ASEAN responses to AUKUS security dynamic
Asia
– Evan Laksmana, East Asia Forum: The outlines of the Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy are emerging. Public comments from administration figures indicate that the US is seeking to build more bespoke or ad hoc regional coalitions – such as the Quad and AUKUS – to balance China’s military power and buttress the ‘rules-based order’. – Why there are no grand alliances in Asia
Australia
– Gary Waters, The Strategist: Information and communications technology, encompassing digital services and infrastructure, cybersecurity and software, is ubiquitous throughout the economy and society. As the digital transformation gathers pace, the number and complexity of ICT services is accelerating. – Australia needs a sovereign ICT capability
Australia-Indonesia
– Hillary Mansour, The Strategist: A significant rise in Indonesian illegal fishing in Australia’s northern waters highlights a significant maritime security threat, and our border enforcement agencies can’t afford to drop the ball. Over the past six months, Australian authorities have confiscated more than 600 kilograms of trepang (sea cucumber) from Indonesian fishing vessels in our waters. Overfished and valuable, Australian trepang sells for $15–30 a kilogram in Indonesia. – Spike in incursions highlights joint Australian and Indonesian interests in combating illegal fishing
– David Engel, The Strategist: However relaxed and comfortable Indonesian Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto might be about Australia’s plans to acquire nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs), the visit to Jakarta of French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian has probably validated the very different view of Le Drian’s counterpart, Retno Marsudi. And whatever Le Drian may have intended to achieve on this theme in Jakarta, he may well have compounded the Australian government’s problems with Indonesia over this central plank of the AUKUS agreement while stoking Jakarta’s suspicions of Canberra’s trustworthiness. – Australia needs an entente cordiale with Indonesia over nuclear propulsion and non-proliferation
Australia-Solomon Islands
– Richard Herr, Aziz Mohammed, The Strategist: Karl Marx claimed, ‘History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce’, suggesting that failing to learn from experience tells something about those in power. At the first repeat, all the ensuing misfortunes are tragic because they were avoidable. The second repeat reveals inexcusable incompetence. – Repeating history? Australia’s new intervention in Solomon Islands
China
– Aaron Klein, Brookings: China has been at the forefront of a technological revolution in payments in both its private and public sectors. China’s tech firms succeeded in replacing the bank-based magnetic striped card world with a tech-based QR code system. Then the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) launched its central bank digital currency, followed by a series of government actions that appear designed to steer the Chinese system away from these tech firms. What is going on in Chinese payments is a fascinating battle of private sector innovation versus government control and big-tech versus big-banks, putting the usually staid and boring world of payment systems into the spotlight allowing for examination of broader narratives about the future of China and how it is playing the global economic game. It also offers insight into how the Federal Reserve plans to approach digital payments in America. – China’s payments u-turn: Government over technology
Climate Action
– Val Giddings, ITIF: Although verdicts vary, and some progress was clearly made, the climate change consensus emerging among scientists post-Glasgow is that the world continues on a path to exceed the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius identified in Paris in 2015 to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. But there is a course, so far too much neglected, that could magnify the tangible progress against carbon emissions everyone wants: embracing biotechnology innovation. – Biotech Innovation: The Low-Hanging Fruit They Missed in Glasgow
Digital Transformation
– Patrycja Pendrakowska, ORF: Internationally, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has varied depending on the measures undertaken, the number of infected, government subsidies supporting businesses, access to online education, and media coverage. It is certain that the negative impact of COVID-19 reached every corner of the world. Indeed, even the richest societies were heavily struck by supply chain disruptions and sudden ceasure of socio-political life that eventually transformed even the way elections are conducted, allowing wider participation of distance voters. The pandemic meant immediate transformation of nearly every aspect of social life and the effectiveness of this transformation was largely dependent on already existing features and characteristics: Digital infrastructure, quality of healthcare systems, and the responsiveness of policymakers. – Inequity pandemic: The lost generation of the digital transformation
Europe
– Janos Ammann, Euractiv: Compared to past transitions, the green transition needs to be better planned to leave no one behind, argued Claudia Detsch of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in an interview with EURACTIV. This will only be possible if politics, companies, and labour unions work together, she said. – Socially just green transition will need better planning, says analyst
Europe-Central Asia
– Pravesh Kumar Gupta, VIF: On November 5, European Union (EU) leaders met with prime minister-level Central Asian representatives in Bishkek for the inaugural EU-Central Asia Economic Forum. The delegation from the EU was led by Executive Vice-President and Trade Commissioner of European Commission, Valdis Dombrovskis. A broad discussion covered three areas of cooperation highlighted by the Forum: green recovery, digitization, and strengthening the business climate. Subsequently, the participating EU leaders vowed to sustain the flow of investments and aid in accordance with current programmes. They also did not push Central Asian countries to implement concrete or radical reforms in the proposed areas. Alternatively, the Central Asian delegations expressed a desire for a more aggressive EU strategy. – EU-Central Asia Relations: An Emerging Partnership
Five Power Defence Arrangement
– Abdul Rahman Yaacob, East Asia Forum: November 2021 marks the 50th Anniversary of the Five Power Defence Arrangement (FPDA), a consultative defence mechanism involving Australia, the United Kingdom, New Zealand, Malaysia and Singapore. Its future is likely to be challenged given the dynamics of Australia’s defence relations with Indonesia and the formation of AUKUS, a military pact between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States. – Keeping the Five Power Defence Arrangement relevant at 50
Gulf
– Frederic Schneider, AGSIW: The 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP26, has reminded the world that the end of fossil fuel production has to come sooner rather than later. And for decades now, the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council have all publicly recognized the unsustainability of their oil rent economies and committed to weaning their economies off their hydrocarbon income. Regardless of public announcements, however, fossil fuel production in the Gulf has actually increased by about one-third since 2000. The largest increase was in Qatar, doubling production until 2013 and shrinking slowly in recent years. Saudi Arabia’s output grew by 31% until 2016 and has also been declining slightly since, while the UAE’s production grew by about 60% and sees no sign of abating. Production dipped in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic but is already rebounding. – Toward a Portfolio-Based Gulf Economy?
Guyana
– Chris Arsenault, Al Jazeera: The only English-speaking nation in South America has one of the continent’s best track records for Amazon rainforest protection – and an ad hoc patrol group of Indigenous farmers, teachers, and hunters tracking loggers and wildcat miners is part of the reason why. – Amazon deforestation is rising. Guyana offers a rare bright spot
India
– Al Jazeera: The group that ran the Hindutva Watch handle on Twitter – which flagged instances of violence and bigotry from Hindu nationalist groups – had long been accustomed to being abused and trolled for content critical of the Indian government. But even they were stunned when the account, with nearly 26,000 followers, was abruptly suspended in April this year with no reason given. – India using cyber-volunteers to silence critical voices: Report
– Dhaval Desai, ORF: Based on OECD’s definition of informal settlements, studies have estimated that up to 37 million households in India (nearly 50 percent of the country’s population) living in slums lack access to essential services including water and sanitation. These ‘informal settlements’ are concentrated within cities, where increasing densities have put unmanageable pressure on the provision of civic amenities and services. – What urban India must learn from Mumbai’s pandemic efforts
India-Taiwan
– Roger Liu, ORF: With the securitisation of supply chains and increasing efforts to decouple from China, India has seen the opportunity to play a more important role in the supply chain shift. Firms and investors in different sectors, especially those in electronics manufacturing services (EMS), have relocated major parts of their supply chains to India. Encouraged by policies such as Make in India and Production Linked Initiatives (PLIs), major EMS firms in Apple’s iPhone supply chain such as Foxconn, Wistron and Pegatron have established their assembly lines and supply chains in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. The relocation of supply chains reflects, in geopolitics as well, the fear of over-reliance on China as the sole provider of many products and components in the global supply chain. India, then, becomes an attractive alternative for international investors in pharmaceuticals, ICT/internet and computer technology as well as service and consulting. – How can cooperation with Taiwan benefit India and Maharashtra in the global supply chain shift? | ORF (orfonline.org)
Iran
– Marwan Bishara, Al Jazeera: As the negotiations to salvage the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement resume in Vienna, it is a déjà vu all over again. The United States warns of crippling sanctions, Israel threatens war, the Europeans plead and prod, and the Arabs watch from the sidelines, as Iran drags out the talks and accelerates its uranium enrichment. Except this time, diplomacy seems destined to fail, leaving the door open to a number of scenarios, which, thanks to former US President Donald Trump and his Middle East brain trust, former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, include war and/or the distinct possibility of Iran becoming a latent nuclear state. – Why Iran may become a latent nuclear state
Russia-Ukraine
– Ian Hill, The Interpreter: Reports this month of a sizeable recent build-up of Russian military forces around Ukraine’s borders have aroused fears in Kiev and Western capitals of impending Russian military action in Ukraine. Emphasising Washington’s “serious concerns”, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned Moscow against making a “serious mistake” by repeating its 2014 aggression against Ukraine. The Kremlin, for its part, has denied any aggressive intent, and accused Ukraine and the West of inflammatory remarks and artificially whipping up tensions. – The Kremlin may be tiring of the impasse in eastern Ukraine
Saudi Arabia
– Robert Mogielnicki, AGSIW: Efforts to revitalize sluggish foreign direct investment figures will remain at the forefront of Saudi policymakers’ agendas for the remainder of the year and throughout 2022. Saudi Arabia held the fifth annual Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh from October 26-28, convening global leaders in business and government to discuss the future of global investment. Saudi officials hope that such a future entails the kingdom functioning as an integral node in international investment flows. – Saudi Arabia’s Ever More Ambitious Investment Strategy
Turkey-Ukraine
– Burak Ege Bekdil, Defense News: Turkey’s largest defense company has signed a deal with two Ukrainian businesses to share upgrade work for Ukrainian-made Mi-8 helicopters. Military electronics specialist Aselsan will work with Ukraine’s Motor Sich and Ukroboronprom to perform electro-optical and missile upgrades on the Mi-8s. The deal was signed during Saha Expo, a defense and aerospace event held in Istanbul from Nov. 10 to 13. – Turkish, Ukrainian companies team up for Mi-8 helicopter upgrades (defensenews.com)
USA
– Stephen Ezell, ITIF: An increasingly digitalized global economy requires ever-more digitally skilled workforces for nations to remain productive. Unfortunately, domestic and international assessments of digital skills show the United States is lagging its competitors. – Assessing the State of Digital Skills in the U.S. Economy
USA-South Korea-U.S.-ROK Information and Communication Technology Policy Forum
– US Department of State: The text of the following statement was released by the Governments of the United States of America and the Republic of Korea at the conclusion of the sixth meeting of the U.S.-ROK Information and Communication Technology Policy Forum. – Joint Statement on the Sixth U.S.-Republic of Korea Information and Communication Technology Policy Forum
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