Diario geostrategico, 16 dicembre 2021
Buona lettura !
The Science of Where Magazine’s interviews:
– L’Intelligence tra rischio, cyber e passione. The Science of Where Magazine incontra Adriana Piancastelli Manganelli, OSINT Senior Analyst
– Towards sustainable AI. The Science of Where Magazine meets Abhishek Gupta, Founder and Principal Researcher, Montreal AI Ethics Institute
– The road to the “new normal” and the role of the G20. The Science of Where meets Priyadarshi Dash. Associate Professor at Research and Information System for Developing Countries (RIS), New Delhi, he has 14 years of experience in policy research on trade, investment, infrastructure and fintech issues in the context of G20, IORA, BIMSTEC and Indo-Pacific
– Governo dei dati tra geopolitica e tutela del cittadino. The Science of Where Magazine incontra Ivana Bartoletti, Global Chief Privacy Officer a WIPRO Technologies e Visiting Policy Fellow presso l’ Università di Oxford
– Tecnologia e responsabilità: uno snodo decisivo. The Science of Where Magazine incontra Federico Cabitza, Università di Milano-Bicocca
– Inside the ethics of artificial intelligence: for a decentralized approach. The Science of Where Magazine meets James Brusseau, Philosopher, Pace University
– L’intelligenza artificiale contro le discriminazioni sul lavoro. The Science of Where Magazine incontra Keith Sonderling, Commissioner del U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission
– Gathering strenght, gathering storms. Visions on artificial intelligence. The Science of Where Magazine meets Michael Littman and Peter Stone
Today’s Choice
– Thorsten Wetzling, Lauren Sarkesian, Charlotte Dietrich, Stiftung Neue Verantwortung: In July 2020, the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) invalidated the European Commission’s adequacy decision for the EU-U.S. Privacy Shield framework, which until then, regulated transatlantic exchanges of personal data for commercial purposes. In Data Protection Commission v. Facebook Ireland (Schrems II), the CJEU argued that U.S. surveillance law provides inadequate safeguards for EU citizens’ data. This was a transatlantic bombshell, as it left thousands of companies questioning the future of their transatlantic data flows. Since then, the United States and EU Commission have been negotiating a successor agreement, but have not yet announced a path forward. – Solving the Transatlantic Data Dilemma
Armenia-Azerbaijan-Zangezur Corridor
– Paul Globe, The Jamestown Foundation: Two seemingly unrelated developments are worrying officials in the South Caucasus, Russia and the West. On the one hand, tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the opening of a transit corridor between Azerbaijan and its non-contiguous Nakhchivan autonomy are growing, the result of Armenia’s failure to agree to reopen it after the 44-day Second Karabakh War in 2020. And on the other hand, Russians are increasingly concerned that Moscow’s dominance of the Caspian Sea is being called into question. That heretofore primacy is being eroded by the expansion of the navies of the other littoral states; but at the same time, the failure of Iran to ratify the 2018 delimitation convention legally leaves open the possibility that outside powers—Turkey in particular—could insert their own forces there in the interim. Such a development could dramatically change the already gradually shifting military balance in the region as well as make a new war more likely, with its outcomes less easy to predict. – Tensions Grow Over Zangezur Corridor, as Russia Losing Dominant Position on the Caspian
Belarus
– Grigory Ioffe, The Jamestown Foundation: According to Poland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, from June 2020 to the end of July 2021, Polish consulates issued a total of 178,711 visas for Belarusians, of which 12,190 were so-called humanitarian visas, used by de facto political refugees. For comparison, during 2019, Poland issued 358,421 visas to citizens of Belarus, of which only 7 were humanitarian (Polskie Radio, August 4). Belarusians fleeing repression also migrate to Lithuania, Ukraine and other countries. Those repressions have not yet shown signs of abating. Alexander Knyrovich, a formerly successful Belarusian entrepreneur, predicts that the number of political prisoners in Belarus will peak at about 6,000 people, up from around 1,000 today, and that the Belarusian political regime will last decades. Its longevity, he argues, is contingent on the current political regime in Russia, for which supporting Minsk is sustainable and popular among significant segments of the Russian population. That, in turn, means that emigration of the most creative and enterprising Belarusians will continue, up to a point when regime loyalists will indeed command a majority in Belarus (YouTube, December 4). Knyrovich currently resides in Poland and plans to pursue a business career there. – Belarusian Political Crisis: Untenable Risks and Achievable Goals
Cambodia-China-ASEAN
– Davis Florick, East Asia Forum: Chinese interference has negatively impacted Cambodian politics and allowed Prime Minister Hun Sen to lean more fully into authoritarianism. As illiberalism calcifies in Cambodia, the country grows further isolated from the international community — making it further dependent on China and unlikely to escape Beijing’s influence in the short- or medium-term. – Cambodia is China’s leverage point on ASEAN
China
– Liu Xuanzun, Global Times: At a time when artificial intelligence (AI) technology is developing fast and has wide prospects in military use, China for the first time proposed to the UN to regulate the military applications of AI during a conference held on Monday, raising concerns over the long-term impact and potential risks in such areas as strategic security, rules on governance and ethics, while also giving suggestions on how to resolve potential problems. – China urges regulating military use of AI, first time in UN history, showing global responsibility
Cities
– Carlo Ratti, Project-Syndicate: After hosting the Olympics in 1992, the Catalan capital became one of Europe’s most popular destinations, but the influx of tourists strained infrastructure and fueled resentment among residents. The COVID-19 pandemic has given the city a chance to try new initiatives that make visitors a part of the community. – Can Barcelona Create a New Kind of Tourist Economy?
Energy
– Alex Gilbert, Morgan D. Bazilian, and Samantha Gross, Brookings: The ongoing energy crisis of late 2021 looks sure to move into 2022. It has already had wide-ranging impacts on economics, the environment, and security. This essay considers a few of the tensions arising for government policy, investors, and consumers. The crisis has three distinct elements: COVID-19 and supply chain disruptions, greater interconnectedness of natural gas markets, and signs of energy price volatility during the energy transition away from fossil fuels. – The emerging global natural gas market and the energy crisis of 2021-2022
Financial Inclusion-Digital Transition
– Cecilia Varendh Mansson, Brookings: In an attempt to deepen financial inclusion, microfinance organizations are introducing digital solutions to serve low-income households and small- and medium-sized enterprises. Mobile financial services and fintech solutions are particularly promising in Africa where financial inclusion is only
43 percent, whereas mobile phone penetration is almost 90 percent. Such solutions show promise: In Kenya, for example, mobile financial services—specifically mobile money—contributed to increasing financial inclusion from 26.7 percent to 82.9 percent between 2006 and 2019. – Mobile financial services can increase impacts of microfinance organizations—but the story is more complicated than we think
Hong Kong
– Tai Hing Shing, ThinkChina: Following an overhaul of the electoral system in Hong Kong by the Chinese central government, both the pro-democracy and localist camps are not taking part in the upcoming Hong Kong Legislative Council elections, leaving a small number of moderate democrats who advocate dialogue with Beijing in the running. However, a severely fractured society in Hong Kong means that it will not be easy for them to be elected. Faced with the prospect of a LegCo that is likely to be made up of mainly pro-establishment voices, what is the way forward for Hong Kong? – First LegCo election under Hong Kong’s new electoral system: Tough road ahead for non-pro-establishment candidates, Politics News
Koreas
– Jay Song, East Asia Forum: As of September 2021, data from the South Korean Ministry of Reunification suggest that 33,800 North Korean defectors currently live in South Korea. This number has soared over the past two decades — before 1998, they numbered under 200. – Escaping North Korea under Kim Jong-un
Libya
– Belabbes Benkredda, Project-Syndicate: After a decade of chaos and civil war, Libyans have grown disenchanted with politics. In the run-up to the first round of the presidential election on December 24, the opportunity to hear the candidates discuss and debate their plans for the country is a crucial step toward building political trust, legitimacy, and stability. – Making Libya’s Next Election Count
Malaysia
– Kevin Zhang, Joshua Wan, East Asia Forum: After winning only two out of the 28 seats in Malaysia’s recent Melaka state election, Chairman of the Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition Muhyiddin Yassin found himself defending against calls to disband and return to the victorious Barisan Nasional (BN). – Silver linings for Perikatan Nasional after its Melaka election loss
NATO-Cyber Defense
– Vivienne Machi, Defense News: NATO is moving into 2022 determined to increase its cyber defense posture, investing in new capabilities, refreshing its policies, and learning from recent exercises to do so. Coming off the heels of the most recent flagship exercise – Cyber Coalition 2021, held in-person in Tallinn, Estonia – alliance officials are focused on ensuring that networks, people, and resources are as protected as possible, several leaders said at a media day held Dec. 6. – NATO looking at holistic path to boost cyber defense arsenal
Russia
– John C. K. Daly, The Jamestown Foundation: Amidst growing tensions in the Western Pacific over rival Chinese and United States efforts to bolster their presence there, Russia’s military is pursuing a major upgrade of the Viliuchinsk naval base in the Russian Far East. Viliuchinsk is the Pacific Fleet’s ballistic nuclear missile submarine (SSBN) base on the southeastern coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula. The Sea of Okhotsk has been used as a “bastion” for sheltering Russian naval SSBNs since Soviet times, but Viliuchinsk’s advantage over Vladivostok, to the south, is that it has direct access to the open ocean. The Viliuchinsk upgrades include constructing new hardened submarine shelter pens for the Pacific Fleet’s SSBN and attack submarines. Given the distance of Pacific Fleet warships from European-based Northern Fleet maintenance and repair facilities in the Kola polar region, the harbor is also to receive a modern floating dock for berthing and repairing the Russian navy’s recent Project 955 Borei- and Project 885 Yasen–class submarines to lessen the facility’s current near-total reliance on shipyards at the other end of Eurasia. – Russia’s Pacific Fleet Upgrades Kamchatka Submarine Base
State and Market
– Luigi Zingales, Project-Syndicate: The long-standing dichotomy between the state and the market is misleading, and poses a major obstacle to understanding and addressing today’s policy challenges. We should instead aim to improve both, and to contain each within its respective sphere. – Burying the Laissez-Faire Zombie
USA
– John Villasenor, Brookings: On December 1, a federal judge in Texas issued a
ruling blocking the state from enforcing its new social media law. Shortly after Texas Governor Greg Abbott signed House Bill 20 into law in September, NetChoice and the Computer and Communications Industry Association (CCIA) filed suit in federal court, arguing that it is unconstitutional. – Texas’ new social media law is blocked for now, but that’s not the end of the story
– Lauren Bauer, Wendy Edelberg, Brookings: In spring 2020, millions of Americans lost or left their jobs. While many continued to search for work, ready to take a job, others left the labor force entirely. Even as the unemployment rate has fallen back to historically low levels, the labor force participation rate (LFPR, which measures the share of the population that is employed or is unemployed and looking for work) remains depressed. This report takes a deeper dive into who is returning to work—and who is not—to better understand how the balance of the recovery might unfold. – Labor market exits and entrances are elevated: Who is coming back?
– Katie Bach, Molly Kinder, Brookings: Last week, baristas at a Buffalo, NY Starbucks voted overwhelmingly to unionize, creating the first unionized Starbucks store in the US. The union victory came despite Starbucks fighting tooth and nail to thwart it. Amazon took the same aggressive anti-union approach in Bessemer, AL earlier this year; the National Labor Relations Board has since thrown out the results of the vote due to Amazon’s “dangerous and improper” messaging. – Is your business struggling with the labor shortage? Consider a union
USA-Russia-Minsk Agreements-Ukraine
– Vladimir Socor, The Jamestown Foundation: Russia imposed the Minsk “agreements” on Ukraine in 2014 and 2015 through military force. Ukraine’s government and civil society regard the terms of those documents as inimical to the national interests. They spent these seven years resisting, evading, and asking to change those terms. – Biden Administration Aligns With Russia to Support the Minsk ‘Agreements’ on Ukraine (Part One)
Altre notizie e approfondimenti su The Global Eye
