DISINFORMAZIONE IN SALSA RUSSA

RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact)

Atlantic Council

On February 28, 2022, Russia indiscriminately shelled Ukraine’s second largest city, Kharkiv, in an attack that claimed at least eleven civilian lives, wounding many more, and destroying homes. This incident was not isolated; as previously reported by the DFRLab, Russia has shelled the city since the beginning of the war. Geolocating Russia’s indiscriminate shelling of Kharkiv

The invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces has spurred Europe’s worst security crisis in decades. But while most analysis is rightly focused on the immediate situation, it is equally important to forecast the war’s multiple possible trajectories and outcomes. Anticipating the uncertainties that this war will bring is a critical step toward successfully navigating its possible consequences. Barry Pavel, Peter Engelke, and Jeffrey Cimmino: Four ways the war in Ukraine might end

Brookings

Moscow’s efforts to spread disinformation about the crisis in Ukraine began months ago—and it will only intensify as the conflict does. Across state and social media, the Kremlin is spreading its baseless justification for invading its neighbor: that Ukraine is perpetuating a genocide against Russian speaking people in the country’s east. This propaganda effort has included plans for a fabricated video of Ukrainian soldiers committing acts of violence against civilians and spurious claims that Kyiv’s forces planned an amphibious assault against Russian-backed separatists. All the while, the Kremlin continues to accuse the United States and its partners of spreading “war propaganda” and conducting “information terrorism.”. Jessica Brandt and Valerie Wirtschafter: The surprising performance of Kremlin propaganda on Google News

Douglas Rediker, a nonresident senior fellow in the Global Economy and Development program at Brookings and in the Center on the United States and Europe, talks with David Dollar about sanctions imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine by the United States, Europe, and other nations. Rediker addresses a number of issues, including whether cutting Russian banks off SWIFT will make any difference, export control limitation of U.S. tech to Russia, the impact of sanctions on Russia’s energy sector, and if it’s possible to impose sanctions on Russian oligarchs. Douglas A. Rediker and David Dollar: What you should know about sanctions on Russia

Moscow’s efforts to spread disinformation about the crisis in Ukraine began months ago—and it will only intensify as the conflict does. Across state and social media, the Kremlin is spreading its baseless justification for invading its neighbor: that Ukraine is perpetuating a genocide against Russian speaking people in the country’s east. This propaganda effort has included plans for a fabricated video of Ukrainian soldiers committing acts of violence against civilians and spurious claims that Kyiv’s forces planned an amphibious assault against Russian-backed separatists. All the while, the Kremlin continues to accuse the United States and its partners of spreading “war propaganda” and conducting “information terrorism.”. Jessica Brandt and Valerie Wirtschafter: The surprising performance of Kremlin propaganda on Google News

CSIS

A discussion on the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its geopolitical implications for Asia. How should the United States prepare for two-front geopolitical competition? How will this situation impact China-Russia relations? What is the significance for Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula? The Ukraine Crisis and Asia: Implications and Responses

CSIS’s Nikos Tsafos and Ben Cahill join the podcast to talk about energy prices and the future of the energy and climate landscape in wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. According to Tsafos, we are “seeing the end of Russia as an energy superpower.”. End of Russia as Energy Superpower

Despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine across three axes, Ukrainian forces and the Ukrainian people have conducted an extraordinary defense of their country. Please join the CSIS International Security Program for an update on Russian military operations in Ukraine and a discussion on the challenges and opportunities for the United States and its partners as they seek to assist Ukraine and deter Russian advances. Assessing the Russian Military Campaign in Ukraine

Defense News

In the wake of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent nuclear orders to his forces, the top military officer responsible for America’s nuclear arsenal said the U.S. has not made any moves of its own. “I am satisfied with the posture of my forces. I have made no recommendations to make any changes,” U.S. Strategic Forces Command’s chief, Adm. Charles Richard, told a House Armed Services subpanel Tuesday. “All I’ll say in open session is … nuclear command and control is in its most defended, most resilient lineup that it’s ever been in, in its history.”. No changes coming to US nuclear posture after Russian threat

In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the West has responded with devastating sanctions and a swift condemnation and isolation of Russia as well as by sending arms and other support to Ukraine. But one option the Biden administration has definitively taken off the table: imposing a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Stephen Losey: Here’s why a no-fly zone over Ukraine is off the table

The Pentagon is considering whether to add U.S. troops in Eastern European NATO-member countries on a long-term basis in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a senior Pentagon official told lawmakers Tuesday. The Biden administration’s $6.4 billion request to Congress to respond to the Ukraine crisis includes $3.5 billion for the Pentagon, to pay for operating costs associated with the surge to the current 100,000 U.S. troops in Europe or its waters and also to backfill weapons the U.S. military is sending from its stockpiles to Ukraine. Joe Gould: Pentagon revisiting long-term US troop levels in Eastern Europe

Turkey has been caught off guard as its strategic partner Russia invaded its other strategic partner, Ukraine. Russia is Turkey’s biggest energy supplier. Russia and Ukraine together are Turkey’s biggest tourist markets and grain suppliers. Turkey faced suspension from the U.S.-led, multinational program that builds the F-35 Lightening II as it insisted on becoming the first NATO ally to deploy on its soil the Russian-made S-400 long-range, air-defense system. Turkey supplies armed drones to Ukraine. Burak Ege Bekdil: How talk of ‘war’ tipped Turkey’s stance on closing warship traffic through its straits

As Russian President Vladimir Putin escalates his invasion designed to topple Ukraine’s democratically elected government, Kyiv is pleading for as many anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons as possible. While the Biden administration on Saturday approved additional military assistance for Ukraine, there is more the United States and its NATO allies must do — and fast. Ryan Brobst, Bradley Bowman, John Hardie and Jack Sullivan: What the West should do now to help Ukrainians on the battlefield

Defense One

Among the mysteries of Russia’s slower-than-expected advance into Ukraine is the apparent absence of the kind of small drones that Russian forces have put to increasingly good use in recent campaigns and military drills. But there is still reason to believe that Russia’s drones are being more widely used in Ukraine than is realized, and that their effects are being masked by other flaws in the current campaign’s execution. Samuel Bendett: Where Are Russia’s Drones?

The White House this week shot down the notion of installing a no-fly zone over Ukraine, explaining that the United States will not put forces in potential combat with nuclear-armed Russia. That hasn’t stopped people from pushing for one—including the president of Ukraine and even a few former Supreme Allied Commanders Europe. So we asked someone who ran a no-fly zone about it. Marcus Weisgerber, Tara Copp: Here’s Why a Ukraine No-Fly Zone’s a No-Go

We should not delude ourselves into believing that Putin has put Chinese leader Xi Jinping in a predicament by invading Ukraine. Beijing has successfully navigated previous Russian adventurism in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Crimea, effectively insulating ties with Washington and its allies while staying aligned with Moscow where it mattered, specifically at the UN. Gabriel Alvarado: Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Does Not Put Beijing in a Bind

Six days into a multi-pronged attack on Ukraine, Russian forces have failed to claim any major cities and have reportedly suffered heavy casualties. Moscow has been diplomatically isolated while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wages a fierce, popular resistance. So what happened? Tara Copp, Patrick Tucker: Five Reasons Why Russian Forces Are Struggling in Ukraine

Formiche

Il presidente russo Vladimir Putin ha commesso un errore nel ritenere che Stati Uniti e partner europei non avrebbero risposto nel caso in cui Mosca avesse invaso l’Ucraina. È questo il messaggio che il presidente statunitense, Joe Biden, ha affidato nel suo primo discorso sullo stato dell’Unione, all’invasione russa. Ferruccio Michelin: La guerra domina lo Stato dell’Unione. “Putin ha fatto un errore”

Se si considera quanto fluida e in rapida evoluzione sia diventata la situazione in Ucraina, la probabilità che si materializzi lo scenario peggiore, o qualcosa che vi si avvicina, rimane nel campo della realtà e del possibile. L’analisi predittiva diventa sempre più imprevedibile e scoraggiante. Marco Vicenzino: Ucraina, prepariamoci al peggio

L’inaspettata resistenza ucraina, i problemi di rifornimento di carburante, le carenze di cibo e il morale molto basso: questi sono gli elementi che, secondo gli Stati Uniti, hanno reso la guerra russa all’Ucraina più difficile di quanto le autorità di Mosca avevano preventivato. Alcune unità “si stanno arrendendo, a volte senza combattere”, e “molti” soldati non sono “mai stati in combattimento prima”, ha spiegato un alto funzionario del Pentagono in un punto con la stampa. “Alcuni di loro, crediamo, non erano nemmeno stati informati che sarebbero andati a combattere”. Gabriele Carrer: Impreparate e “analogiche”. E l’intelligence occidentale ascolta le truppe russe

Come può Vladimir Putin uscire dall’Ucraina senza perdere completamente la faccia ora che l’ha raccontata al mondo come una minaccia esistenziale (con fantasiose armi di distruzione di massa comprese) per la Russia? Come può pensare di costruire un cambio di regime ora che le vittime aumentano e i soldati russi diventato detestati da tutti? Come può giustificare le perdite tra i suoi cittadini? Non solo l’operazione militare sta diventando sempre più violenta, ma la narrazione anche sta uscendo dal controllo del Cremlino. Emanuele Rossi: Putin dovrà fare i conti con i morti. Ucraini e anche russi

È fuga da Mosca. Il colossi dell’energia, spinti tra le altre cose anche dalla mossa occidentale delle sanzioni, abbandonano la piazza Rossa e mettono sì in conto perdite e contraccolpi finanziari, ma si inseriscono nella direttrice strategica imboccata dai Paesi atlantici di provenienza. Out Shell, ExxonMobile, Eni, Bp: il trend economico-finanziario dopo lo scellerato attacco russo all’Ucraina non si ferma. Francesco De Palo: Dasvidania. Tutti i big dell’energia che fuggono da Mosca

“2022? No, siamo di fronte a un nuovo 1939. Per questo è un cambio di paradigma”. Nathalie Tocci, direttrice dell’Istituto affari internazionali, non usa i guanti. L’invasione della Russia in Ucraina, i carri armati e i bombardamenti su Kiev “stanno cambiando la storia”. È un domino che va molto oltre l’Ucraina. Forse più in là di quanto Vladimir Putin avesse previsto. “Pensava di poter invadere l’Ucraina e che il mondo gli sarebbe venuto dietro. Invece ha sbattuto contro un muro di una forza che non avrebbe mai previsto o immaginato”, ha tuonato il presidente americano Joe Bidenquesta notte nel suo “State of the Union”, accolto da un applauso corale del Congresso vestito per l’occasione di giallo e blu. Francesco Bechis: Benvenuti in Europa, 1939. Intervista a Nathalie Tocci

Politica estera e dinamiche internazionali per dimostrare competenza, incisività e capacità di unire un Paese diviso, con un approccio bipartisan, anche riservando poca enfasi ad altre questioni riguardanti le riforme. Così Mario Del Pero, docente di Storia Internazionale e Storia della politica estera statunitense all’Institut d’études politiques di Parigi, fotografa il primo discorso sullo stato dell’Unione di Joe Biden. Emanuele Rossi: Biden prova a superare le divisioni parlando di Ucraina. Parla Del Pero

Global Times

After Russia conducted “a special military operation” in the Donbass region on February 24, the US and EU launched a new round of sanctions against Moscow on Saturday, covering a wide range of areas, including finance and trade, travel, air services, sports and culture. Xu Wenhong: Weaponizing financial infrastructures is a lose-lose choice

Nextgov

The Federal Communications Commission cited Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in announcing its unanimous approval of a notice of inquiry for secure use of the Border Gateway Protocol, the internet’s routing system. Mariam Baksh: Russia’s Cyber Tactics Are Prompting the FCC to Address Internet Routing Security

All cybersecurity is local, regardless of the world situation. That means it’s personal, too – in Americans’ homes, computers and online accounts. As violence spreads thousands of miles away from the U.S., my strong recommendation is that all Americans remain vigilant and check on their own cybersecurity. Richard Forno: Ukraine Conflict Brings Cybersecurity Risks to U.S. Homes, Businesses

Reuters

An end to the era of foreign currency stockpiling may be nigh. This week’s dramatic freeze of the Russian central bank overseas assets in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine may now question just why countries build foreign currency reserves at all. Mike Dolan: Russia central bank freeze may hasten ‘peak’ world FX reserves: Mike Dolan

New-crop Chicago corn and soybean futures are at or near record levels for the time of year, and that should boost U.S. farmers’ enthusiasm to plant both this spring and potentially relieve the market of historic tightness. Karen Braun: Column: High stakes for U.S. corn, soy stocks with steep prices, Ukraine woes

“A major geopolitical realignment is taking place,” which, like 9/11, “shapes major governments’ foreign and military policies unpredictably for years to come.”.  Jamie McGeever: Ukraine crisis re-focuses world investment themes

Security Affairs

Recently a Ukrainian researcher leaked 60,694 messages internal chat messages belonging to the Conti ransomware operation after the announcement of the group of its support to Russia. He was able to access the database XMPP chat server of the Conti group. Pierluigi Paganini: Ukrainian researcher leaked the source code of Conti Ransomware

ESET researchers uncovered a new data wiper, tracked as IsaacWiper, that was used against an unnamed Ukrainian government network after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Pierluigi Paganini: IsaacWiper, the third wiper spotted since the beginning of Russian invasion

The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) published a joint cybersecurity advisory to warn US organizations of data wiping attacks targeting Ukraine that could hit targets worldwide. Pierluigi Paganini: CISA and FBI warn of potential data wiping attacks spillover – Security Affairs

The Microsoft Threat Intelligence Center (MSTIC) continues to investigate the attacks that are targeting Ukrainian networks and discovered that entities in Ukraine were targeted with a previously undetected malware, dubbed FoxBlade, several hours before Russia’s invasion. Pierluigi Paganini: FoxBlade malware targeted Ukraine hours before Russia’s invasion

AFRICA

Brookings

By developing evidence-based national medicines policies, African member states have demonstrated that they are prioritizing universal access to essential medicines and health products. Notably, 95 percent of African countries have developed policies and plans on medicines, over 90 percent on blood safety and 85 percent on traditional medicine. Such policies are vital for a robust and effective health infrastructure: For example, by developing essential health products lists, countries are better able to regulate and procure health products that contribute to patient safety and better quality of healthcare. Jean-Baptiste Nikiema: How strengthened political engagement can lead to improved health outcomes in Africa

CHINA

China Leadership Monitor

China’s economy decelerated sharply toward the end of 2021 and at the start of the new year it was growing at about 4 percent.  But some easing of monetary policy and real estate regulations could move it closer to 5 percent.  With the all-important Party Congress scheduled for the end of the year, the leaders want steady growth but also stability.  The main headwinds are in COVID, real estate, policies toward the private sector, and trade.  The situation with the pandemic could become better (mRNAs boosters for the Chinese population) or worse (new variants resistant to Chinese vaccines).  On the one hand, in real estate, too much tightening could lead to a collapse in prices that results in panic selling and weakened household wealth and confidence.  On the other hand, Too much easing could reignite the bubble and lay a foundation for a larger financial crisis.  The regulatory crackdown could reach new sectors or leave most of the private economy untouched. In trade, the risk is a re-acceleration of the U.S. trade war, and too weak of a global economy to make up for the re-acceleration by trade with other partners.  All in all, it makes for a year of dangerous growth. David Dollar: Dollar | China Leadership (prcleader.org)

Global Times

Beijing-based private rocket start-up Galactic Energy announced on Tuesday that its self-developed 50-ton-thrust reusable liquid oxygen-kerosene engine has succeeded on a full-system test run, a fresh sign of progress for China’s commercialization of space program that has seen its local private firms closing in on their Western competitors. Private rocket firm succeeds in test run of reusable liquid engine

Technology companies participating in the MWC Barcelona are eyeing the metaverse, an area blending physical and digital experiences and possibly unlocking new digital business models. Global firms eye metaverse; China likely to take lead with 5G deployment

CHINA – ARCTIC

Think China

Although not an Arctic state, China has called itself a “near-Arctic state” and is an observer in the Arctic Council. It takes an interest in Arctic affairs and the development of Arctic shipping routes such as the Northern Sea Route which could see transits between Europe and Asia shortened if they become commercially viable in the future. While China-Russia ties look to be getting ever closer, Hong Nong explains why close cooperation between the two countries in the Arctic — which some call the theatre of a new Cold War — is not at all straightforward. Hong Nong: China’s cautious navigation amid talk of a new Cold War in the Arctic, Politics News

CHINA – EUROPE

Global Times

China’s development is a good opportunity for the EU, not a challenge, nor is it a “threat” that some people clamor for, Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao said in Beijing on Tuesday, calling on both sides to strengthen communication and promote healthy competition. Yin Yeping: China-EU Summit’s ‘ice-breaking’ role expected to advance bilateral cooperation: experts

CLIMATE CHANGE

ESA

Human-induced climate change is causing dangerous and widespread disruption in nature, affecting the lives of billions of people around the world, according to the latest state of the climate report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published this week. Satellites support latest IPCC climate report

FUTURE OF CAPITALISM

Council on Foreign Relations

Roger W. Ferguson Jr., Steven A. Tananbaum distinguished fellow for international economics at CFR, leads a conversation on the future of capitalism.  Academic Webinar: The Future of Capitalism

ITALY

Formiche

Quattro miliardi di euro sul piatto, da qui al 2030, per aumentare la produzione nazionale di semiconduttori e attrarre investimenti da aziende straniere. È quanto contiene una bozza di decreto del governo italiano visionata da Reuters: 150 milioni di euro nel 2022 e 500 milioni di euro all’anno dal 2023 al 2030. Silvia Bosco: Corsa ai chip, 4 miliardi fino al 2030 e 600 milioni dalla Bei

SOUTH KOREA – JAPAN

East Asia Forum

Ties between Seoul and Tokyo reached their lowest ebb in decades under the administrations of South Korean President Moon Jae-in and former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe as bilateral history problems flared. Now, with a new Japanese leader at the helm and an impending presidential election in South Korea, questions abound as to whether the shifting political landscapes of both countries will usher in a reset of the bilateral relationship. Lauren Richardson: Prospects for a reset of Seoul–Tokyo relations

USA

The White House

State of the Union Address: 2022 State of the Union Address

Brookings

In July 2021, President Biden lost his patience with Facebook. “They’re killing people,” the president said of the falsehoods around the coronavirus and COVID-19 vaccines circulating on the platform. A White House spokeswoman announced that the administration was “reviewing” Section 230 (§ 230) of the Communications Decency Act, the law that protects Facebook and other platforms from being held liable for much of what users post to their websites. “[C]ertainly they should be held accountable,” she told CNN. Quinta Jurecic: The politics of Section 230 reform: Learning from FOSTA’s mistakes

Defense News

In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the West has responded with devastating sanctions and a swift condemnation and isolation of Russia as well as by sending arms and other support to Ukraine. But one option the Biden administration has definitively taken off the table: imposing a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Stephen Losey: Here’s why a no-fly zone over Ukraine is off the table

The U.S. Army is preparing to demonstrate an offensive drone swarm capability at its next Project Convergence experimentation effort this fall, according to the service’s Rapid Capabilities and Critical Technologies Office. The Army awarded a $14 million contract to BlueHalo in February to develop the capability over a 30-month period, the company announced in a Feb. 24 statement. Jen Judson: US Army to demo offensive drone swarms in next Project Convergence

Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman announced Tuesday they have selected payload providers for their respective segments of the Space Force’s Next-Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared program. Both companies are on contract to build a portion of the first block of Next-Gen OPIR satellites — Lockheed to develop three satellites based in geostationary orbit and Northrop two polar satellites destined for highly elliptical orbit. Next-Gen OPIR is the successor to today’s Space-Based Infrared System, which detects and tracks ballistic missiles. Courtney Albon: Lockheed, Northrop choose payloads for Space Force missile warning satellites

As the U.S. Army looks to expand its sensor-to-shooter capabilities, a new agreement with the Space Force is meant to ensure cooperation between the two services and inform future joint architecture requirements. Courtney Albon: New agreement aims to bolster US Army, Space Force cooperation on architecture requirements

The U.S. Navy’s cruiser modernization program has been disorganized in its planning and troubled in its execution, service leaders have told Defense News. But it’s a sliver lining for those working on destroyers, as they’re able to learn from mistakes in the cruiser effort and avoid repeating them. Megan Eckstein: How mistakes in modernizing a US Navy cruiser can benefit destroyers

Nextgov

Ways adversaries have been recently observed exploiting Navy networks are listed in a newly unclassified notice penned by the Deputy Chief of Naval Operations for Information Warfare, which urges military officials to play an alert and active role in U.S. cyber defense. Brandi Vincent: ‘You Are a Target’: Navy Warns Staff to Prepare for Cyber Threats

President Joe Biden condemned Vladimir Putin’s Ukraine invasion, lauded NATO’s and the global community’s response, and announced new measures to squeeze the dictator’s supporters in his first State of the Union address to Congress, delivered Tuesday. Jacqueline Feldscher: ‘Battle Between Democracy and Autocracy’ Leads Biden’s First State of the Union

Technological innovations and industry policy were present among the myriad topics President Joe Biden briefly discussed during his State of the Union address on Tuesday evening. Alexandra Kelley: Biden Calls Out Big Tech, Supports Greater Domestic Investment

The Defense Department took a big step toward building a global satellite system to track and respond to missiles and hypersonic weapons in making three awards with a total value of $1.8 billion. Nick Wakeman: DOD Plans Next Phase of JADC2 Satellite Layer

USA – CHINA

Brookings

Decisions undertaken by Washington and Beijing in the coming months could have outsized influence over the trajectory of U.S.-China relations, and indeed the international system, for coming decades. At its core, the question confronting both countries is whether the U.S.-China relationship remains capable of being confined to an intense interests-driven competition. The more China clings to Russia following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s barbarism in Ukraine, the stronger that calls will grow in the United States and elsewhere to treat China and Russia as interchangeable enemies bent on imposing their violent might-makes-right vision for the world. Ryan Hass: Ukraine presents opportunity to test China’s strategic outlook

China Leadership Monitor