IL RUOLO STRATEGICO DEL U.S.-EU TRADE AND TECHNOLOGY COUNCIL

USA – EUROPE

ITIF

• Le tensioni commerciali tra gli Stati Uniti e l’UE sono aumentate negli ultimi anni. Diminuire tali tensioni transatlantiche promuovendo al contempo una concorrenza leale sarà particolarmente importante con la sfida di una Cina in ascesa. Questo è un obiettivo chiave del nuovo Consiglio per il commercio e la tecnologia (TTC) USA-UE. Robert D. Atkinson  Jackie Whisman – Podcast: The Future of US-EU Trade, With Denis Redonnet

AFRICA

Brookings

Le previsioni per l’economia digitale in Africa sono di un mercato che potrebbe raggiungere i 180 miliardi di dollari entro il solo 2025. Vi sono gli strumenti adeguati per permettere alle donne imprenditrici di avere un ruolo centrale nella grande trasformazione ? Alexa Roscoe and Anne Njambi Kabugi – Women and e-commerce in Africa: The $15 billion opportunity

BAHRAIN – ARTEMIS ACCORDS

US Department of State

Mercoledì 2 marzo, il Regno del Bahrain è diventato la diciassettesima nazione e la terza nazione del Medio Oriente a firmare gli Artemis Accords. Kingdom of Bahrain Signs the Artemis Accords

CHINA

Reuters

La Cina, seconda economia mondiale e il più grande importatore di materie prime, sta affrontando venti contrari, sia interni che globali.  Clyde Russell – Column: Iron ore outlook is more bullish than lower China growth target suggests

CRYPTOCURRENCIES

Brookings

As cryptocurrencies march toward mainstream adoption, a persistent misconception seems to have taken root among policymakers: That cryptocurrencies broadly—and Bitcoin specifically—pose a major threat to sanctions regimes and anti-money laundering efforts because of the anonymity they provide users. In legislation being considered in Washington, such as a recent measure to address El Salvador’s adoption of Bitcoin and another to bolster innovation capacity, policymakers are considering rules that would crack down on digital currencies with the aim of preventing money-laundering. And as the United States rolls out sanctions to counter Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, cryptocurrencies have been cited as a way for the Kremlin to circumvent financial penalties. But the perception of Bitcoin as providing perfect anonymity belies an inaccurate understanding of how the technology works and fails to address the complex dynamics currently at play between cybercriminals, sanctioned entities, and law enforcement agencies. Richard Clark, Sarah Kreps, and Adi Rao – Shifting crypto landscape threatens crime investigations and sanctions

GERMANY – GULF REGION

AGSIW

La Germania sta potenziando le sue forze armate, assumendo un ruolo più assertivo e centrale nella difesa europea e in ambito NATO. Questo, insieme alle modifiche della sua politica energetica, potrebbe facilitare una più stretta cooperazione con selezionati alleati del Golfo. Robert Mason – A New Era in German Defense and Foreign Policy: The Source of Broadening Relations in the Gulf?

GULF REGION

AGSIW

On March 1, AGSIW hosted a discussion examining challenges and threats to regional de-escalation and rapprochement. Do Houthi Missile Attacks Outline the Limits of De-escalation in the Gulf Region?

IRAN – AFGHANISTAN – PAKISTAN

AGWIS

Le relazioni dell’Iran con i suoi vicini orientali, Afghanistan e Pakistan, sono diventate particolarmente importanti dopo l’acquisizione del potere dei talebani in Afghanistan, che ha alterato in modo significativo il panorama geopolitico regionale. Umer Karim – Uneasy Relations: Geopolitical Challenges for Iran on its Northern and Eastern Borders

RUSSIA – UKRAINE

The New York Times (LIVE)

• It is unclear whether Russia will continue to pursue a plan to capture all of Ukraine, the top U.S. intelligence chief said Tuesday. A full military takeover would require more military resources than Russia has currently deployed, Avril D. Haines, the director of national intelligence, told a Congressional hearing. In the face of military setbacks and fierce resistance from Ukraine, Russia has begun to loosen its “rules of engagement” and use tougher tactics, Haines said. (Julian E. Barnes)

• Avril D. Haines, the director of national intelligence, told a Congressional hearing Tuesday that American spy agencies were working with other agencies to document Russian actions in Ukraine, including war crimes, and hold the perpetrators accountable. Such actions would build on the intelligence released ahead of the war that sought to expose Russia’s war plans, rally allied support for tough sanctions and deny Moscow the chance to create a false pretext for an attack. (Julian E. Barnes)

• India’s Foreign Ministry said that the country had been able to evacuate all Indian students from Sumy, Ukraine, after days of shelling and gunfire made their evacuation too dangerous. The students, who number about 700, are currently en route to Poltava in central Ukraine, from where they will board trains to the western part of the country, the ministry said. (Karan Singh)

• Ukrainian forces have held off a ferocious, days-long Russian assault on the southern city of Mykolaiv, a strategic point in Russia’s bid to capture all of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast. Early on Monday morning, a Russian cruise missile targeted barracks used by airborne troops from the Ukrainian army’s 79th Brigade. Several soldiers were killed in the attack, which took off the front facade of the building, leaving bedrooms with gray steel bunk beds visible from the front courtyard. In the same attack, Russian forces hit a warehouse complex where vegetables were stored and a residential street in the village of Ternovka, where several homes were reduced to rubble. (Tyler Hicks)

• The Vatican confirms that its secretary of state, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, spoke by phone on Tuesday with the Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov. A Vatican statement said that Parolin “conveyed Pope Francis’ deep concern about the ongoing war in Ukraine,” and reiterated his call for “an end to armed attacks, for humanitarian corridors to be set up for civilians and rescuers, and for the violence of arms to be replaced by negotiation.” The Russian foreign ministry’s account of the call said that Lavrov had explained “the causes and goals of the special military operation being carried out in Ukraine” and had discussed humanitarian issues as well, adding: “The parties expressed hope for the earliest possible holding of the next round of talks between Moscow and Kiev and reaching an agreement on solving the key problems underlying the Ukrainian crisis in order to resolve it and stop hostilities.” (Elisabetta Povoledo)

• Leaders of America’s intelligence agencies are testifying this morning in front of members of Congress, in the first big opportunity for lawmakers to publicly question them about the war in Ukraine. Lawmakers are expected to ask questions about President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia’s decision-making and mental state, the direction of the conflict on the ground, American support for a potential insurgency if Russia were to take control of Ukraine and other matters. The spy chiefs — including Avril D. Haines, the director of national intelligence, and William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director — could also field questions on the Biden administration’s effort before the war to declassify information about Russia’s troop buildup and expose Moscow’s operations meant to create a false pretext for the war. The hearing is nominally set to discuss the intelligence agencies’ annual threat assessment. The document is the intelligence community’s major opportunity to offer a public evaluation of national security challenges around the world. While the document was released Tuesday, work on it finished a month ago. It reflects Russia’s threat to Ukraine, but it does not explore what intelligence agencies have learned from the Russian military’s struggle on the ground or Ukraine’s stiff resistance. The document does offer some insight into Russian strategy, even if it may be outdated. As Russia prepared for its invasion of Ukraine, according to the report, it sought to avoid a direct confrontation with the United States. “Russia seeks an accommodation with the United States on mutual noninterference in both countries’ domestic affairs and U.S. recognition of Russia’s claimed sphere of influence over much of the former Soviet Union,” the report said. With Moscow buffeted by Western financial sanctions, the Russian government finds itself in a far weaker position than it did a month ago, something members of Congress are expected to dig into in their questions. (Julian E. Barnes)
• United Nations monitors in Ukraine report that 474 civilians have died in two weeks of fighting, including 29 children. Another 861 civilians had been injured, the U.N. said, among them 44 children. The U.N. repeated its belief that actual casualties are much higher and said it was trying to corroborate reports of hundreds of casualties in the besieged city of Mariupol and the towns of Volnovakha and Izium. (Nick Cumming-Bruce)

• President Biden is expected on Tuesday morning to ban the importation of Russian oil into the United States, a senior administration official said, making the move after pressure from lawmakers in both parties to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Mr. Biden is scheduled to make the announcement at 10:45 a.m. Tuesday from the White House. In a statement, the administration said Mr. Biden would “announce actions to continue to hold Russia accountable for its unprovoked and unjustified war on Ukraine.”. The move would shut off the relatively small flow of oil into the United States, which receives less than 10 percent of its energy resources from Russia. But Republicans and Democrats in Congress had been urging the president to take the step to ensure that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia was not profiting from American purchases of oil. Officials said Mr. Biden had struggled for days about whether the take the step amid concerns about whether it would accelerate the already rapid rise in the price of gasoline at the pumps — a potent political issue for Americans in a critical election year. Already, concern about disruptions in the flow of oil around the world has pushed up the price of Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil. On Tuesday morning, Brent crude hit $130 a barrel. It has been as high as $139 a barrel, up 26 percent over the past week. And on Monday, anticipation of a ban on oil by the United States shook financial markets. The S&P 500 fell 3 percent, its sharpest daily decline since October 2020. The Nasdaq composite dropped 3.6 percent and is now 20 percent off its November record. But the pressure on Mr. Biden to act has been intense. Lawmakers from both parties in Congress began discussing on Monday legislation that would ban Russian oil and suspend normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus. Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Democrat of California, has repeatedly endorsed those actions, telling reporters last week: “I’m all for that. Ban it.”. It was not immediately clear when the ban would take effect. The United States and its allies in Europe and elsewhere have already imposed severe sanctions and export restrictions on Russia. The threat of those sanctions was initially designed to try to deter an invasion from happening in the first place. Those steps — which failed to prevent the war — include freezing the assets of major Russian banks and Mr. Putin’s wealthy Russian friends, cutting some Russian banks off from the international banking system, and blocking Russia from acquiring certain imports, including high-tech equipment. Mr. Biden and his counterparts had purposely exempted energy resources from those sanctions in an effort to ensure the steady flow of natural gas and oil throughout the world. But it is unlikely that Mr. Biden will be joined by the leaders of European countries, officials said. Europe gets about 30 percent of its oil from Russia, and leaders there have been wary of taking a step that would cut off that supply. The president met virtually with the leaders of Britain, France and Germany on Monday morning to discuss the issue. On Monday — before news of Mr. Biden’s announcement — Alexander Novak, the Russian deputy prime minister, warned that Russia could cut Europe off from the delivery of natural gas through a pipeline if the allies move to stop importing Russian oil. “It is absolutely clear that a rejection of Russian oil would lead to catastrophic consequences for the global market,” Mr. Novak said. “European politicians need to honestly warn their citizens and consumers what to expect,” he said. “If you want to reject energy supplies from Russia, go ahead. We are ready for it. We know where we could redirect the volumes to.”. Senator Chris Coons, Democrat of Delaware, said Tuesday that Americans needed to be ready for the consequences if Russia retaliated, a move he said would be aimed at dividing the allies. “We might well see energy prices double because Putin realizes that he’s got Western Europe over a barrel,” Mr. Coons said on CNN. (Michael D.Shear)

• A statement released by the French presidency said that China’s leader, Xi Jinping, in a call with his French and German counterparts, “expressed his support” for “a cease-fire as well as the need to guarantee the population access to humanitarian aid coordinated by the United Nations.” The statement added that Mr. Xi stressed “the importance of the principle of sovereignty and territorial integrity” and “expressed his regrets” over the latest developments in the war in Ukraine. (Constant Méheut)

• The London Metals Exchange said it was halting the trading of nickel on Tuesday after “unprecedented” price increases driven by the “evolving situation in Russia and Ukraine.” As the United States considers imposing sanctions on Russia’s energy exports, some traders feared that nickel, a key component in batteries for electric vehicles and stainless steel, could be targeted as well, driving up the price by 75 percent on Monday. (Austin Ramzy)

• The U.N. refugee agency said that the number of people who have fled Ukraine since the Russian invasion began has reached 2 million.

• The Ukrainian military claimed early Tuesday to have shot down three Russian fighter jets and a cruise missile, an assertion that was backed up by several loud explosions in the night sky over Kyiv — and a sign that its air defense systems and air force are still functioning nearly two weeks into the war. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has issued increasingly urgent pleas for Western support for his country’s air defenses. Mr. Zelensky has asked Western countries to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine, an idea rebuffed by NATO because it risked direct conflict with Russia. The United States, however, has been coordinating a possible arrangement in which Eastern European countries would send Soviet-designed fighter jets to Ukraine in exchange for American F-16s. Ukrainian pilots would not need additional training to fly the MiG aircraft, if they could be flown or trucked across the border into Ukraine. Thick and low cloud cover over the northern parts of Ukraine in the early days of the war have limited the effectiveness of Russian bombing and air support for troops on the ground. At the same time, Russia’s armored columns have slowed, apparently bogged down by a mix of logistical glitches and Ukrainian airstrikes, artillery attacks and ambushes using anti-tank missiles. The prospect of clearing skies, and a possible Russian shift to using air power to compensate for the lack of progress on the ground, have given new urgency to Mr. Zelensky’s requests. That Ukraine’s air force has survived for two weeks is seen by Western military analysts as something of a success. “We will close the sky ourselves,” the Ukrainian military said in a statement Tuesday morning about the downing of the Russian planes. “NATO is invited” to help, it added. The military had said earlier that an antiaircraft missile shot down a Russian fighter jet over Kyiv, the capital, around 8:30 p.m. on Monday. In the city center around that time, air raid sirens wailed before a series of thunderous booms in the sky. The Ukrainian military said that about half an hour later, one of its interceptor jets shot down a Russian fighter jet in aerial combat near the capital. Air-to-air combat has been exceedingly rare in modern war, with only a tiny number of incidents in decades — between Russia and Turkey in Syria and in the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s. Another Ukrainian pilot shot down a cruise missile, the statement said. Ukrainian military statements have typically included only scant information about failures and losses in the war, leaving it unclear how many of their own planes the Russian military has shot down or destroyed on the ground. News photographs from southern Ukraine have shown blown-up and burning Ukrainian radar installations. (Andrew E. Kramer)

• An effort to evacuate thousands of people from Sumy, a city east of Kyiv that has been the scene of heavy fighting, got underway on Tuesday with the dispatch of a convoy of buses, led by the Red Cross and loaded with supplies. “Today, the humanitarian corridor for Sumy should start working,” said Iryna Vereshchuk, a government minister tasked with helping displaced people. While there was hope that people could start leaving in greater numbers from that city, which had a population of around 200,000 before the war, there was little sign that a broader evacuation effort for towns and cities farther east would materialize. (Marc Santora)

• The World Health Organization said that it has verified 16 attacks on health services in Ukraine since the Russian invasion began, leading to nine deaths and 16 injuries. Dr. Hans Kluge, the agency’s regional director for Europe, told a virtual news conference that 76 tons of health supplies have been sent Ukraine, including five tons to Kyiv. “International collaboration for a safe humanitarian corridor for lifesaving medical supplies is a top priority,” he said. (Isabella Kwai)

• As trading heads into the European day, futures are down sharply in Germany and Britain as concerns about energy supplies continued to rattle markets. In Asia, major markets dropped. Oil prices, spurred by the prospect of American sanctions on Russian energy exports, extended their rally, with Brent crude futures climbing 3.2 percent. (Austin Ramza)

• On the morning after Russia invaded Ukraine, Maria Hawranek did what hundreds of thousands of Poles would soon do: She signed up to host refugees at her home in Krakow. In the evening, she got a call: A family from Lviv was on their way. “We didn’t even discuss it,” said Ms. Hawranek, a freelance journalist whose partner, also a journalist, immediately left to cover the war. “It was obvious that we were going to do this.”. Of the 1.7 million people who have fled Ukraine since the beginning of the invasion, more than one million have made their way to Poland, according to the United Nations. This huge, sudden influx of refugees has given rise to an enormous grassroots movement across Polish society, as private individuals have mobilized to raise funds and offer free accommodation and transport to the refugees. More than 500,000 Poles have joined a nationwide Facebook group coordinating support. In some places, supply was greater than demand, with local authorities calling on citizens to refrain from driving to the border to offer free rides, because they were causing traffic jams. Years of nationalist, anti-refugee policies have left Poland with a fragmented immigration system. It’s now mostly up to citizens to handle what the U.N.H.C.R. said was “the fastest growing refugee crisis in Europe since World War II.”. Ms. Hawranek’s guests arrived on Friday night: Kostiantyn Komkov, a software developer, Olena Poretskova, a costume designer, and their 5-year old son, Tomas. As soon as the invasion started, the family immediately left their Lviv apartment to friends who were evacuating from Kyiv, and crossed the border to Poland. “I had anticipated an attack for the past two years, and when I saw the Russian troops building at the border, I knew this was it,” Ms Poretskova said. For Tanja Fedchyk, a nurse from Luck in western Ukraine, who has also found asylum in Poland, the decision on whether to stay or go was not instantaneous. When the Russian army first entered eastern Ukraine, she and her husband decided to wait 24 hours. “We were hoping that the situation wouldn’t develop into a full-scale invasion,” Ms. Fedchyk said. “But as hours passed, it became obvious that things were only getting worse.”. The next morning, Ms. Fedchyk and her 2-year-old son, Tymi, got in a car and headed for Wroclaw, Poland. The trip went relatively smoothly, except for a 10-hour wait at the border. But saying goodbye to their husband and father, who stayed in Luck to build barricades, left them heartbroken. In Wroclaw, they are hosted by Robert and Hana Reisigová-Kielawski, an English language university instructor and a human-resources supervisor, who live with their two children. The couple didn’t have a spare room in the apartment so they moved their 5-year-old daughter to their bedroom. “As we waited for their arrival, we got nervous,” Mr. Reisigová-Kielawski said. “We had no idea what physical and emotional state they would be in. I wondered how we should behave in order to be as helpful as possible, but also not overwhelm them. Which issues should we discuss and which are best left unsaid?”. One thing was clear from the beginning: They wouldn’t ask their guests how long they were planning to stay. Their invitation didn’t have an expiration date. But whenever they asked if Ms. Fedchyk needed anything, she would say, “No, thank you. We’re just here for a few days.” As the invasion unfolded, however, it became evident that those days could turn into weeks, perhaps longer. Since the war began, Ukrainians on both sides of the border have faced uncertainty. In Poland, the government is preparing an emergency bill that will make it easier for Ukrainians to access the labor market and some of the social benefits available to permanent residents. Commentators have pointed out that the warm welcome Ukrainian refugees have received stands in stark contrast to the public response to the humanitarian crisis at the border with Belarus, which peaked in October. The government did not open the border to those refugees, most from the Middle East, and it banned aid workers from the border region — policies widely supported by Poles. The Reisigová-Kielawskis, long active in various refugee-support programs, were frustrated. “During that crisis the government made it extremely difficult for Poles to help refugees, and unfortunately many people chose to look away,” Mr. Reisigová-Kielawski said, adding. “The grassroots movement to help Ukrainians, which we are seeing at the moment, is immense and heartwarming, but I have the impression that it is also lined with a sense of guilt that as a society we didn’t do enough back then.” (Ada Petriczko)

• President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela signaled on Monday a willingness to increase his country’s oil production if Russian supplies are shut out of the international market, as he described a meeting with American officials over the weekend as “respectful, cordial, very diplomatic.”. Venezuela, a Russian ally whose oil industry is under American sanctions, has emerged as a possible replacement for some of the crude supplies that could be banned as the United States increases its effort to punish the Russian economy. American officials are reportedly looking at easing the sanctions to allow Venezuelan oil back onto global markets and address rapidly rising crude prices. But such efforts face a host of obstacles. Some members of Congress have been sharply critical of any effort to rekindle ties with Venezuela, saying that efforts to isolate President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia should not boost other authoritarian leaders. “The White House offered to abandon those seeking freedom from Venezuela in exchange for an insignificant amount of oil,” Senator Marco Rubio, a Republican from Florida, said in a tweet. Senator Robert Menendez of New Jersey, a Democrat, said in a statement that resuming oil trade with Venezuela “risks perpetuating a humanitarian crisis that has destabilized Latin America and the Caribbean for an entire generation.” He called Mr. Maduro “a cancer to our hemisphere and we should not breathe new life into his reign of torture and murder.”. The United States has accused Mr. Maduro of electoral fraud, and the Trump administration attempted to oust him while recognizing the opposition leader, Juan Guaidó, as the country’s president in 2019. The United States imposed sanctions on Venezuelan oil to starve Mr. Maduro’s government of cash. Aside from the political whiplash of resuming oil trade with Venezuela to confront what the United States sees as a more immediate challenge in Russia, there are practical problems to ramping up production as well. Venezuelan oil fields have long suffered from mismanagement, and some industry analysts say it could be slow to increase supply. “When you’ve had a prolonged period of underinvestment, you can’t just flip a switch and bring it back overnight,” said Saul Kavonic, an energy industry analyst for Credit Suisse. The potential cut to global supply from sanctions on Russia would also require looking far beyond Venezuela to make up the shortfall, he added. “Literally all options are going to have to be on the table in terms of sources of alternative supply,” Mr. Kavonic said. “No one source — whether that’s Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Iran, the U.S. — is going to be able in itself to come anywhere close to replacing the totality of Russian supply if all Russian exports were to be subject to sanctions.” (Austin Ramzy)

• South Korea will begin sending emergency medical supplies to assist Ukraine in four shipments totalling 40 tons of starting on Tuesday as part of its pledge to give $10 million in humanitarian aid (Yu Young Jin)
• As global markets reel from the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela said on Monday that Venezuela has the capacity to produce more than 3 million barrels of crude oil per day “if necessary for the stability of the world.” His comments came after senior Biden administration officials met with Venezuelan leaders over the weekend (Jesus Jimenez)
• Stocks in Asia fell on Tuesday, extending the selloffs in global markets. The Nikkei 225 in Japan was down 0.3 percent by midday, and markets in South Korea and Hong Kong were also down. Oil prices also continued to climb after sharp jumps on Monday, as the U.S. considers a potential ban on Russian oil. The Brent crude index was up 3 percent to nearly $127 a barrel (Austin Ramzy)

Atlantic Council

• In a further attempt to justify its invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin once again accused Ukraine of provoking Russia by developing dirty bombs and biological weapons. Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs claimed on March 6 that the Security Service of Ukraine and Azov Battalion “mined a reactor at an experimental nuclear facility at the Kharkov Institute of Physics and Technology” in order to “accuse Russia of creating an ecological catastrophe.” The claim was based on an “alert” from Russia’s Ministry of Defense and quotes from the Kremlin-owned outlet Sputnik. The accusation is the latest in a series over the last two weeks in which Russian officials and Kremlin media have claimed without evidence that Ukraine was creating a dirty bomb. Digital Forensic Research Lab – Russian War Report: Kremlin recycles old narratives to claim Ukraine is constructing dirty bombs and bioweapons

• In our previous edition of the Global Sanctions Dashboard, we warned that Russia’s potential invasion of Ukraine would bring a wave of rapid sanctions escalation. A little over one month later, the unfortunate event we all dreaded took place. This was not the first time Russia instigated an unjust war against a neighbor, but it was the first time the West sanctioned Russia with the purpose of crippling the Russian economy and financial system. Julia Friedlander, Maia Nikoladze, Charles Lichfield, Ananya Kumar and Castellum.AI – Global Sanctions Dashboard: Special Russia Edition

• Hours after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin called his Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi to inform him about Russia’s “special military operation.” During the call, Raisi expressed Iran’s understanding of Russia’s security concerns and affirmed the country’s contention that “NATO expansion is a serious threat to the security and stability of independent nations.”. Nicole Grajewski – As the world shuns Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, Iran strengthens its ties with Moscow

Bloomberg

• Markets have a short memory. It’s hardly surprising that when the price of Brent crude jumps 39% over the course of a month, people take fright. Russia usually sits ahead of Saudi Arabia these days as the world’s biggest oil producer after the U.S. The position of its exports on global markets looks highly uncertain, since sanctions that were designed to exempt energy trade appear to be spooking. David Fickling – The World Economy Can Get By Surprisingly Well With $129 Crude

Reuters

• Brazil will not take sides over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Foreign Minister Carlos Franca said on Tuesday, adding its stance was one of “impartiality”, not “indifference”, and that it sought peace. Brazil won’t take sides over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – foreign minister

• The Vatican’s Secretary of State told Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in a phone call on Tuesday that the Holy See wants armed attacks in Ukraine to stop and humanitarian corridors to be guaranteed. Vatican told Lavrov bombings in Ukraine must stop, humanitarian corridors guaranteed

• The White House is expected to impose a ban on U.S. imports of oil from Russia as punishment for the invasion of Ukraine, Democratic U.S. Senator Chris Coons said. Steve Holland and Pavel Polityuk – White House plans Russian oil ban

• Hedge funds have been completely wrong-footed by the surge in U.S. Treasuries and the dollar sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Futures market positioning data show speculators increased their bearish bets on bonds and cut their bullish bets on the greenback, just as both were lifted on a wave of safe-haven inflows.  Jamie McGeever – Column: Funds flattened by safety stampede into U.S. bonds, dollar
• Oil traders are anticipating a sharp spike in prices that will likely bring on a business cycle slowdown after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was met by severe sanctions that are disrupting the country’s petroleum exports. John Kemp – Column: Hedge funds anticipate oil price spike, possible recession
• British insurer and asset manager M&G (MNG.L) has only 0.1% of its assets under management exposed to Russia, and will divest of those assets when it can, CEO John Foley said on Tuesday. M&G says further investment in Russia “unthinkable”-CEO

• Oil prices rose on Tuesday, with Brent surging past $126 a barrel, as fears of formal sanctions against Russian oil and fuel exports spurred concerns about supply availability.
  Sonali Paul and Mohi Narayan – Oil rises as fears of Russian oil sanctions spur supply concerns

• All sanctions options against Russia are on the table, but if the European Union imposes sanctions on energy, all EU states must be able to bear the burden, the Foreign Minister of the Netherlands, Wopke Hoekstra, said in Vilnius on Tuesday. All sanctions options on the table, including energy-Dutch Foreign Minister

• After the first wave of refugees from Ukraine there is likely to be a second wave consisting of more vulnerable refugees, the head of the U.N. refugee agency said on Tuesday. Second wave of refugees from Ukraine will be more vulnerable, UNHCR head says

Security Affairs

• The popular cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced today that it’s blocking access to more than 25,000 blockchain addresses linked to Russian people and entities. Pierluigi Paganini – Coinbase blocked 25K addresses linked to Russian individuals and entities

Stimson Center

• L’invasione russa dell’Ucraina ha avuto come conseguenza un sostegno globale senza precedenti al governo di Kiev. I governi si sono affrettati a fornire hardware e materiale militare per sostenere la difesa dell’Ucraina. Elias Yousif, Rachel Stohl – Under Caution: Assessing Arms Transfer Risk in Ukraine

UN News

• Catherine Russell, Executive Director of the UN children’s agency, UNICEF, alongside the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Filippo Grandi, urged countries taking in displaced Ukrainians to ensure these youngsters are immediately identified and registered. Protect unaccompanied children fleeing Ukraine: UN agency chiefs

US Department of State

• La conferenza stampa del Segretario di Stato USA e del Ministro degli Esteri della Lettonia. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkēvičs at a Joint Press Availability

SOUTH SUDAN

UN News

“As we enter the remaining 12 months of the transitional period … we are mindful of the accumulation of unfulfilled commitments and the imperative to address them in the limited time at hand,” said Nicholas Haysom, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for South Sudan, and head of the UN mission there, known as UNMISS. South Sudan marks milestone amid stalled progress, spreading violence

TECHNOLOGY

ITIF

• In both Washington and Brussels, the debate over whether or how to reign in Big Tech has become increasingly philosophical in nature. The long-standing view that antitrust interventions are only justified when real consumer harm has been demonstrated is being challenged by those who believe market dominance is inherently a problem. These Neo-Brandeisians argue that overly powerful companies will inevitably treat their competitors and employees unfairly, eventually slowing innovation, and thus proving to be bad for consumers too. They conclude that it’s best to intervene early to preempt more serious problems later. David Moschella – Theory Aside, Antitrust Advocates Should Keep Their ‘Big Tech’ Ambitions Narrow

• La governance internazionale dei dati e l’approccio cinese. Nigel Cory – China’s Digital Ambitions: A Global Strategy to Supplant the Liberal Order
• In case you missed it, the airline industry recently issued a series of dire warnings that we would soon face mass flight cancellations with commerce grinding to a halt as a result of wireless carriers deploying 5G services in radio waves that are the electromagnetic equivalent of several zip codes away from the ones airplanes use for their altitude gauges. Those fears of interference potentially leading to catastrophe triggered an intense standoff between federal aviation and communications regulators. The long-planned 5G rollout was delayed. After an eleventh-hour flurry of rulemaking, aviation officials eventually began clearing flights in proximity to 5G services. Disasters have not come to pass. Joe Kane – New Spectrum Technologies Aren’t the Problem, They’re the Solution

USA

Brookings

• Trump is no doubt a very popular figure in Texas, but the primaries yield no reason whatsoever to think that Trump is a force to be reckoned with. This is the big takeaway from the March 1 Texas primary—the first state to hold primaries. Other states will hold their primaries between now and September and from them we will learn a lot about the shape of American politics in the years to come. Elaine Kamarck – Lessons from the Texas Primary and why primaries are the most important races in America

• High value real estate is a popular destination for corrupt and criminal assets, in part caused by limited oversight and lack of transparency in real estate transactions. In response to these concerns, the U.S. Treasury began implementing a series of Geographic Targeting Orders (GTOs) in 2016, forcing corporate buyers making all-cash purchases in targeted counties to report the company’s ultimate beneficial owner. Matthew Collin, Florian M. Hollenbach, and David Szakonyi – The impact of beneficial ownership transparency on illicit purchases of US property

• Central banks have a choice when it comes to confronting climate change, BlackRock’s Isabelle Mateos y Lago said at a recent Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy event. They can navigate climate change and the transition to net zero carbon emissions, or they can go further and drive the transition to net zero. But ignoring climate change is not an option. David Wessel – Climate change & the Fed: Navigating the transition to net zero

USA – AUSTRIA

US Department of State

• The text of the following statement was released by the Governments of the United States of America and the Republic of Austria on the occasion of the U.S.-Austria Strategic Dialogue. Joint Statement on the Strategic Dialogue between the United States and Austria

USA – BAHRAIN

US Department of State

The following is the text of a joint statement by the Governments of the United States of America and Bahrain. Joint Statement of the Second U.S.-Bahrain Strategic Dialogue