INTELLIGENZA ARTIFICIALE VS. DISINFORMAZIONE

Il diario di oggi parte con un focus sull’importanza dell’intelligenza artificiale contro la disinformazione ormai dilagante. 

FOCUS – Detecting and countering disinformation grows increasingly important as efficient disinformation campaigns lead to negative real-world consequences on a global scale, both in politics and in society. Machine learning (ML) methods have demonstrated their potential for at least partial automatisation of disinformation detection and analysis. In this report, we review current and emerging artificial intelligence (AI) methods that are used or can be used to counter the spread and generation of disinformation, and briefly reflect on ongoing developments in anti-disinformation legislation in the EU. This overview will shed light on some of the tools that disinformation-countering practitioners could use to make their work easier. Alfonsas Juršėnas Kasparas Karlauskas Eimantas Ledinauskas Gediminas Maskeliūnas Julius Ruseckas Donatas Rondomanskas – NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence – StratCom | NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence Riga, Latvia

AFRICA

• In 1953, Rollo May, an American psychologist, wrote the following in his book Man’s Search for Himself: “ in religion and science, let alone politics, is becoming increasingly accepted, not particularly because so many people explicitly believe in it but because they feel themselves individually powerless and anxious. So what else can one do . . . except follow the mass political leader . . . or follow the authority of customs, public opinion, and social expectations?”. May identified the reason for this trend, which has accelerated in the past few decades, not to the existence of psychologically disturbed, power-hungry politicians who want total control—which have existed since the beginning of organized government—but to the lack of courage of citizens who are unwilling to take the necessary actions to turn back the tide of repression. Since Rollo wrote these words, the world has seen a rise in autocratic and authoritarian governments. In the countries of the Global South, such as on the African continent, this trend appears to be accelerating, with a decline in constitutional, rule-based governments who respect the rule of law and human rights. Charles A. Ray – Foreign Policy Research Institute – Is Democracy in Retreat in Africa?

CHINA

• Giovanni Andornino, direttore del TOChina Hub, spiega che cosa significa il passo indietro del premier cinese Li, verso quale futuro va la leadership di Pechino e le possibilità di mediazione in Ucraina – Formiche – La Russia de-putinizzata non interessa a Xi. Parla Andornino (UniTo)

CHINA – INDIA

• The 15th round of China-India corps commander level meeting concluded on Friday, continuing the positive atmosphere since the 14th round of talk, as the two sides reached consensus on agreeing to maintain dialogue via military and diplomatic channels to reach a mutually acceptable resolution to the remaining issues at the earliest time. Yang Sheng and Wang Qi – Global Times – Latest China-India border talks consolidate trust from previous round, as both disregard US agitation

CYBER SECURITY

• LockBit ransomware gang claimed to have compromised the network of Bridgestone Americas, one of the largest manufacturers of tires, and stolen data from the company. Pierluigi Paganini – Security Affairs – LockBit ransomware group claims to have hacked Bridgestone Americas

DIGITAL HUMINT

• Le capacità di analisi in tempo reale non potranno che assumere sempre più rilievo nei conflitti moderni e il loro corretto inquadramento nei processi di intelligence, quindi strategico-decisionali, costituire un’importante scriminante per la supremazia sull’avversario. L’intervento di Matteo Sironi, executive board member di Humint Consulting. Formiche – La Digital Humint alla prova della guerra in Ucraina

EUROPE

• La industry delle Tlc ha bisogno di più spettro radio per sostenere la crescita del 5G e l’espansione del traffico soprattutto nelle città densamente popolose. Paolo Anastasio – Key4biz – 5G, appello della industry Tlc: ‘Senza banda 6 Ghz copertura 5G a rischio’
• Il rischio di stagflazione è reale e l’atteggiamento confuso della Bce non aiuta. Dobbiamo renderci conto che dopo la pandemia siamo di fronte a una nuova difficile prova in cui si dovrà confermare la capacità dell’Unione di unirsi in uno sforzo comune per combattere uno shock tutt’altro che temporaneo. Su Formiche.net inizia la discussione sul ripensamento dell’intero sistema macroeconomico globale. Luigi Paganetto – Formiche – Nulla sarà più come prima. L’Europa è pronta? Paganetto lancia l’allarme
• Stoccolma si unisce al novero dei Paesi europei, dopo Germania e Danimarca, che hanno ufficializzato la loro intenzione a raggiungere la soglia del 2% del Pil da destinare alla Difesa. Anche in Italia la politica è unanime sulla necessità di aumentare il budget, ma quando? Marco Battaglia – Formiche – Budget difesa al 2% anche in Svezia. E l’Italia quando?
• “Un successo”. Così Mario Draghi ha descritto il vertice informale dei capi di Stato e di governo dell’Unione europea tenutosi giovedì e venerdì a Versailles sotto la presidenza francese. “Raramente ho visto l’Unione europea così compatta, con uno spirito di solidarietà su tutti gli argomenti”, ha assicurato il presidente del Consiglio italiano. Gabriele Carrer – Formiche – Solidarietà e più difesa. La svolta europea letta da Darnis

FRANCE

• Le proposte dei candidati alle presidenziali francesi sul cloud nazionale: dai server francesi per i dati strategici, ai data center di diritto francese alla nuvola sovrana per proteggere la sovranità del dato dal cloud act americano. Paolo Anastasio – Key4biz – ‘Dati sensibili su server francesi’. Cloud nazionale all’Eliseo. E in Italia?

GLOBAL SEA FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN

• In the fight to ensure that our seafood is safe, legally caught, and accurately labeled, traceability is a critical tool. It ensures that information such as how and where fish are caught or farmed—from capture to market—is accessible throughout the global seafood supply chain. The complex interactions between supply chains and actors, however, produce challenges. They can make it difficult for traceability programs to be used effectively, an issue that illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing operators can exploit. Experts from various nations recently gathered to discuss challenges, innovations, and best practices of their traceability programs. Stimson Center – Tackling Challenges of Global Seafood Traceability Programs

INDIA

• India made headlines at the COP26 summit in November 2021 after it announced net-zero targets by 2070 on the first day but intervened to water down the Glasgow Climate Pact on the final day. Instead of a ‘phase out’ of coal power, countries must only accelerate efforts toward a ‘phase down’. Ajay Gambhir, Shivika Mittal, Sandeep Pai, Fergus Green – East Asia Forum – A just green transition for India demands international support

IRAN – SAUDI ARABIA

• Iran has “temporarily suspended” direct talks with Saudi Arabia, according to an outlet linked with the country’s top security body. Iraq’s Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein announced on Saturday during a diplomatic forum in Turkey’s Antalya that a fifth round of talks between the two regional rivals will be hosted by Baghdad on Wednesday.  Maziar Motamedi – Al Jazeera – Iran ‘temporarily suspends’ direct talks with Saudi Arabia

IRAQ

• A dozen ballistic missiles launched from outside Iraq have struck the country’s northern Kurdish regional capital Erbil, Kurdish officials say, adding there are no casualties. There was no immediate claim of responsibility or further details available. Al Jazeera – A dozen ballistic missiles hit Iraq’s Kurdish capital: Officials

• No casualties have been reported following a missile strike in a city in northern Iraq on Saturday. Multiple ballistic missiles hit Erbil, the capital of Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan region, on Sunday local time, Reuters reported, citing Kurdish officials. Lexi Lonas – The Hill – Missiles hit city in northern Iraq, no reported casualties

KENYA

• Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta has endorsed his former archrival for the country’s top job, weeks after their parties joined forces ahead of presidential and parliamentary elections in August. “We have chosen Raila Odinga, without any opposition, to be the fifth president of Kenya,” Kenyatta told a cheering crowd of thousands in the capital Nairobi. Al Jazeera – Kenya’s President Kenyatta backs his former rival Odinga in polls

NORTH KOREA

• From November 2021 through till January 2022, Pyongyang has violated UN resolutions and caused significant alarm in the international media by testing a plethora of missiles. But the international community needn’t be intimidated by North Korea’s missile testing, as they have little strategic impact. Standing firm against Pyongyang is still the best course of action. Liang Tuang Nah – East Asia Forum – Pyongyang’s manufactured missile crisis

RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)

• The shock wave of the Russian attack against Ukraine is sensed worldwide, yet the closer one stands to the epicenter of tragedy, the stronger one feels the trembling of the ground. Riga, the capital of Latvia, is situated less than 1,000 km from both Kyiv and Moscow, and the Russian war against its neighbor has shaken Latvian society to its deepest core. It is not only the geographical proximity with both aggressor and victim that had made so many Latvians feel a wide range of emotions from anger to fear, from compassion to rage; it’s also the realization that by attacking Ukraine, Vladimir Putin’s regime has launched an attack on the European post-Cold War order, an order in which Latvia, as well as the two other Baltic states of Lithuania and Estonia, have prospered and flourished since 1991. This article offers a brief overview of the first responses to the war at societal and governmental levels, tracing Latvian outreach to its Euroatlanatic partners and Ukraine. It argues that while Russia’s war against Ukraine could potentially cause divisions in the Latvian multiethnic society, so far the political elites have delivered a strong message of unity while actively advocating for Ukraine at the international level. Meanwhile, the public space, just like in many other European countries, has been dominated by an unprecedented effort of solidarity toward Ukraine. Una Bergmane – Foreign Policy Research Institute – Latvia’s First Response to Russia’s War in Ukraine

• Ukraine informed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) today that Russia was planning to take full and permanent control of the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) under the management of the state firm Rosatom, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said. This was later denied by the Russian Federation. IAEA – Update 19 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine

• Russian troops have launched multiple air raids on a large Ukrainian military facility outside the western city of Lviv near the Polish border, Ukrainian officials said, in what appeared to be the westernmost attack since Moscow launched an invasion on February 24. Russia “launched an air strike on the International Centre for Peacekeeping and Security”, the head of the Lviv regional administration, Maxim Kozitsky, said on Sunday on his verified Facebook page, adding that eight missiles were fired. Al Jazeera – Russia strikes Ukraine army base near Poland as it widens attacks

• During a video address by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the House of Commons on Wednesday, British politicians applauded as Zelenskyy, dressed in army khakis, invoked Winston Churchill’s wartime rhetoric and urged the UK to increase its military and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. Ruairi Casey . Al Jazeera – ‘Shameful’: UK’s response to Ukraine refugee crisis criticised

• La storia propone strani scherzi. Che sia solo una minaccia confusa oppure un caso di omonimia accidentale, il nome “Operazione Z” – l’invasione russa dell’Ucraina – evoca sinistri ricordi. James Hansen – Key4biz – Guerra Russia-Ucraina. La lettera “Z” non porta molta fortuna, i giapponesi ne sanno qualcosa
• I colossi petroliferi BP, Shell ed ExxonMobil, per il trasporto Boeing, General Motors e Ford, nei media Disney, Warner Media e Sony Pictures e poi Apple, Nike, Netflix, Visa, Mastercard, PayPal, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, McDonald’s e Burger King. La Casa Bianca: “Tornate all’economia del 1917”.  Luigi Garofalo – Key4biz – 37 aziende che dicono bye bye a Russia. Putin minaccia sequestro asset
• Le scomposte dichiarazioni di Dmitry Rogozin, capo dell’agenzia spaziale russa Roscosmos, che in un tweet del 26 febbraio minacciava di lasciare l’astronauta statunitense, Mark Vande Hei, nello spazio sono molto gravi e per più di una ragione. La prima – e più evidente – è che il solo minacciare di non collaborare in un ambiente ostile, difficile e molto pericoloso come lo spazio è qualcosa di totalmente avulso dalla realtà quotidiana della Stazione Spaziale Internazionale (Iss). Andrea Zanini – Formiche – Polvere di stelle. Il complesso rapporto tra potere e spazio
• Il Quinto Servizio – o, come ufficialmente chiamato, il Servizio informazioni operative e relazioni internazionali – sovrintende alle comunicazioni dell’Fsb con i partner stranieri, comprese le agenzie governative statunitensi. È anche sede del famigerato Dipartimento delle informazioni operative, che gestisce il lavoro di intelligence estera dell’Fsb. Andrei Soldatov e Irina Borogan – Formiche – Ascesa e caduta del Quinto Servizio dell’Fsb
• NATO has superior force at its disposal and an abundance of intelligence, and yet it cannot use force to alter the crisis in Ukraine. It must revise the threshold for resisting Russia militarily, if it is to find a way out of this ‘escalation trap’, argues John Raine. IISS – Time for NATO to find a way out of the escalation trap in Ukraine
• These books—memoir, fiction, and nonfiction—offer a glimpse into a century of historical context in Eastern Europe. Marci Shore – The Atlantic – Nine Books to Read to Understand the War in Ukraine
• Against the background of the build-up of troops along the Ukrainian border, Western countries are considering sanctions against Russia. Any new sanctions would come on top of those the West has introduced since Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Partly because of these sanctions, the Russian economy has experienced a lost decade. Russia has built up reserves and reduced its exposure to the dollar, but its economy remains highly dependent on fossil-fuel exports, with the European Union by far its most important trading partner. Despite Russian efforts to build up resilience against further financial sanctions, the unprecedented measures currently under discussion would have a substantial impact on the Russian economy. Meanwhile, different EU countries would be affected to different degrees by sanctions. The EU should design support policies for the most-affected countries to make sanctions against Russia more credible. Monika Grzegorczyk, Niclas Poitiers, Pauline Weil, Guntram B. Wolff – Bruegel – The risks for Russia and Europe: how new sanctions could hit economic ties
• As young men from across Europe strengthen the ranks of Ukraine’s volunteer army following President Zelensky’s call to help his country fend off the Russian onslaught, the creation of a new breed of ‘foreign fighters’ now poses a definitional challenge amongst security experts. According to the Ukrainian President, more than 16,000 foreigners have volunteered so far. Reuters reports that many of them are seeing this as a “once in a generation showdown between the forces of democracy and dictatorship.” – Maya Mirchandani – ORF – Foreign fighters in Ukraine – A definitional dilemma
• At NATO’s Tapa military base in central Estonia, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sparked a heightened sense of purpose among the troops. Charlie Duxbury – Politico – ‘Rest now, while we can.’ At Estonian NATO base, troops prepare for Putin’s next move
• Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Saturday announced that he had authorized $200 million in defensive assistance for Ukraine following a request from President Biden. Lexi Lonas – The Hill – Blinken authorizes $200M in defense aid for Ukraine following Biden request

TECHNOLOGY

• In recent years, both 5G and AI have received considerable attention. However, there has been little focus on the complexities presented by AI and 5G operating together in the context of communications and information operations. Greater connectivity and access to information enabled by 5G also promise to bridge the digital divide, improving democratic participation and citizen mobilization. At the same time, there will be more opportunities for misuse of this technology. Many studies of 5G highlight the technical risks posed by Chinese companies manufacturing 5G equipment. In contrast, this paper examines the ways in which 5G-enabled applications alter the realm of communications and briefly identifies implications 5G can have for democracy and political life in general. Finally, it outlines broader systemic threats and negative impacts of 5G rollout on political participation. Katarina Kertysova – NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence – StratCom | NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence Riga, Latvia

TURKEY

• Turkey’s traditional policy on Ukraine – a mix of deterrence with dialogue towards Russia – is now in need of revision with the failure of the first part. But although deterrence has failed, Turkey is still pursuing the dialogue aspect by trying to mediate between the two sides. As expected, Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers’ meeting in Turkey has not produced a result, but it was a boost for Turkey’s international stature. Galip Dalay – Chatham House – Ukraine’s wider impact on Turkey’s international future

USA 

• Il 9 marzo, a un mese di distanza dal lancio – in sordina, e ora sappiamo, non solo a causa della pandemia – dello yuan digitale durante le Olimpiadi di Pechino, e in uno dei momenti più critici della guerra in Ucraina, il presidente statunitense Joe Biden ha firmato un atteso e complesso Executive Order on Ensuring the Responsible Development of Digital Assets sugli asset digitali, intesi in senso ampio (e dunque, incluse le criptovalute, le stablecoin, le blockchain e in generale le DLT). È un provvedimento atipico, per i suoi contenuti, e molto complesso, che segue – con ritardo – il cyber executive order del maggio 2021: pone le premesse di un percorso che acceleri l’adozione di un dollaro digitale (Central Bank Digital Currency – CBDC). È la marcatura stretta alla ripartenza cinese che ci si attendeva, anche su Formiche.net, e che lancia gli Stati Uniti verso un obiettivo preciso, nel solco di un approccio regolatorio light (self-regulation), contrapposto sinora a quello europeo (co-regulation) e ovviamente, a quello cinese (command and control). Fabio Bassan – Formiche – Valuta digitale e non solo. Biden ha fatto la sua mossa, tocca all’Ue