LA COMPLESSITA’ DELLA TRANSIZIONE ENERGETICA

Il focus di oggi riguarda la complessità della transizione energetica.

FOCUS – Meet the global leaders powering the world’s energy transition, March 28. By Atlantic Council. The return of pre-pandemic energy consumption. Threats of cyberattacks on critical infrastructure. And a generation-defining war in Europe with global repercussions. All have dampened hopes for a swift energy transition—but none have discouraged the world’s movers and shakers in the energy industry from finding solutions. The Atlantic Council’s sixth annual Global Energy Forum, which kicked off Monday in Dubai, is where they’ll discuss the tools, policies, and models essential to responding to these and other major trends in the sector. Check back here for the latest highlights from the event, which is hosted by the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center in partnership with the United Arab Emirates’ Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure and in conjunction with the 2022 World Government Summit. (read more)

AROUND THE WORLD (evolving worlds, ongoing relations, crisis, conflicts)

ASEAN – Myanmar

• An Analysis of ASEAN’s Special Envoy Visit to Myanmar, March 28. By Cchavi Vasisht, VIF.  As Cambodia takes over as the Chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 2022, the visit of Cambodia’s Foreign Minister, Prak Sokhonn as ASEAN’s Special Envoy to Myanmar marks an important development in the current crisis-ridden country. For the first time, the Myanmar military hosted ASEAN delegates since it took power in February 2021. The previous visit scheduled for October 2021 by Brunei’s Second Foreign Minister, Erywan Yusof, was cancelled as the Myanmar military denied the envoy’s meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi. The article below explores the developments made by the regional organisation and the opportunities missed in the process. ASEAN’s role as the regional force has been limited and criticised by opposition forces, civil society groups and international groups. (read more)

Democratic Republic of Congo

• M23 rebels make advances in eastern Congo, March 29. By Reuters.  Rebels from the M23 group have gained ground in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo since they attacked two army positions near the border with Uganda and Rwanda on Monday night, a civil society member and a research group said. (read more)

Islamic State in Khorasan

• How Much of a Threat is the Islamic State in Khorasan?. By Antonio Giustozzi, RUSI. While several of its victories have gained media headlines, the Islamic State in Khorasan is struggling to compete with the Taliban in Afghanistan. (read more)

Japan – India

• Fumio Kishida’s Visit to India: Major Takeaways, March 29. By Rajaram Panda, VIF. The Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida paid a two-day official visit to India on 19-20 March 2022 for the annual India-Japan Annual Summit with his Indian counterpart Narendra Damodardas Modi. This was Kishida’s first visit to India as Prime Minister and the first meeting with Prime Minister Modi. The last India-Japan summit took place in 2018 in Tokyo. This was the 14th such summit between the prime ministers of the two countries. (read more)

Jordan – Syrian Refugees

• A life of isolation for Syrian refugees in Jordan’s Azraq camp. March 29. By Hanna Davis, Al Jazeera. Uniform rows of white caravans plotted neatly in the desert’s empty expanse are home to nearly 38,000 Syrian refugees. They are the victims of the now 11-year-long Syrian war who continue to wait at Jordan’s Azraq camp, their futures still uncertain and their livelihoods still dependent on donors’ generosity. (read more)

Mexico – China

• China-linked wildlife poaching and trafficking in Mexico, March 28. By Vanda Felbab-Brown, Brookings. Wildlife trafficking from Mexico to China receives little international attention, but it is growing, compounding the threats to Mexican biodiversity posed by preexisting poaching for other markets, including the United States. Since Mexican criminal groups often control extensive territories in Mexico which become no-go-zones for government officials and environmental defenders, visibility into the extent of poaching, illegal logging, and wildlife trafficking in Mexico is limited. It is likely, however, that the extent of poaching and trafficking, including to China, is larger than commonly understood. (read more)

Middle East

• The Future of Youth in the Middle East, March 28. By John Bell, Valdai Discussion Club. The question of the future of youth in the Middle East can lend itself to inaccurate generalizations – even the categorization of youth as a politically distinct category is fraught with ambiguity. Furthermore, it is very difficult to generalize across a region with enormous diversity, the context is very different in Lebanon than in the Gulf, or elsewhere. (read more)

Pakistan 

• Pakistan: The next great infrastructure connector, March 28. By Ali Jehangir Siddiqui, Atlantic Council. Pakistan sits at the crossroads of the abundant resources of Central Asia and the Middle East, and the lucrative markets of China and India. It therefore has the potential to play a significant connecting role, one that enables broader regional interdependency while boosting domestic economic prospects. Several projects in infrastructure and energy in recent years have already laid the groundwork for this transformation. But more can be done. Pakistan’s network, though rapidly advancing, is not yet ready to take on these responsibilities. However, there are considerable opportunities; from energy transportation and roadbuilding to digital connectivity and rail access, if Pakistan pursues significant infrastructure improvements, it has a chance to assume the mantle of the region’s great connector. (read more)

UAE – USA – Israel

Joint Statement on the UAE-U.S.-Israel Religious Coexistence Working Group to Advance Interfaith and Intercultural Dialogue and Counter Religious Intolerance and Hatred, March 29. By US Department of State. (read more)

USA

• Why census undercounts are problematic for political representation, March 28. By Gabriel R. Sanchez, Brookings. The report last week from the U.S. Census Bureau confirmed what many experts and advocates have worried about over the past two years: Despite achieving an accurate overall estimate of the population, the 2020 census suffered from significant undercounts of racial and ethnic minorities. More specifically, there was a 3.30% undercount of the Black population, 4.99% undercount of the Latino population, and 5.64% undercount for American Indian/Alaskan Native populations who live on reservations or tribal lands. The Latino undercount in 2020 is three times the 1.54% undercount in 2010, a statistically significant difference. Given the significant consequences associated with the population numbers generated by the census, civil rights leaders are calling for changes to be made to the process—one that consistently diminishes the political influence of diverse communities who are hard to reach. (read more)

• Tech jobs spread out during the pandemic, but future dispersal isn’t guaranteed, March 28. By Mark Muro and Yang You. The tech industry’s big, coastal “superstar” cities aren’t going anywhere. That’s the first takeaway from Brookings Metro’s new look at the geography of the tech sector as it has powered through the COVID-19 pandemic. (read more)

• Fiscal policy and budget deficits following the pandemic, March 28. By Dave Skidmore, Brookings. In a panel discussion at the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) conference on March 25, three well-known economists—Greg Mankiw, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Phillip Swagel—explored the implications of interest rates and inflation for U.S. fiscal policy following the COVID-19 pandemic. (read more)

USA – North Africa

• US moves to shore up unhappy allies on North Africa visit, March 29.  Sami Hamdi, Reuters. With the focus on strained relations between the United States and its Gulf allies, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, it has been easy to overlook that discontent with the Biden administration has also spread to North Africa. Algeria has continued to remain deeply concerned about President Joe Biden’s refusal to reverse his predecessor Donald Trump’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the disputed Western Sahara. Equally, Morocco has been frustrated that Biden does not intend to go beyond Trump’s “recognition”. (read more)

Yemen

• Gulf states hold Yemen talks despite boycott by the Houthis, March 29. By Al Jazeera. Gulf Arab states are gathering for a summit on Tuesday on the war in Yemen that the country’s Houthi rebels are boycotting because its venue is in Saudi Arabia, their adversary in the devastating conflict. The United Nations, diplomats, and others have pushed for another potential ceasefire to mark the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, similar to efforts for a truce over the past few years. (read news)

HORIZONS

• Building Future-Proof Global Value Chains, March 29. Tanu M. Goyal, ORF. Recent global events have underscored the importance of economic integration even as they have exposed the fragility of global value chains (GVCs). The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, for instance, highlighted the systemic risks to the functioning of GVCs. This brief explores the factors that impact the creation of production networks and recommends key methods to make GVCs more stable and sustainable to withstand potential shocks. (read more)

LOOK IN CHINA

• China Unveils its First Long-Term Hydrogen Plan. March 28. By Jane Nakano, CSIS. On March 23, the Chinese government released the country’s first-ever long-term plan for hydrogen, covering the period of 2021–2035. The plan laid out a phased approach to developing a domestic hydrogen industry and mastering technologies and manufacturing capabilities, while pointing to the country’s carbon peaking and neutrality commitments as an overarching driver. (read more)

MARKETS

• Column: European smelter squeeze keeps zinc close to record highs, March 29. By  Andy Home, Reuters. London Metal Exchange (LME) zinc recorded a new all-time high of $4,896 per tonne earlier this month, eclipsing the previous 2006 peak of $4,580 per tonne. (read more)

RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences) 

• Britain to boost military presence in Arctic, March 29. By Reuters. Britain plans to increase its military presence in the Arctic, defence minister Ben Wallace said on Tuesday, amid increased concerns among NATO allies about Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. (read more)

• Ships stranded in Ukraine as conflict slows UN rescue efforts, March 29. By Reuters. With more than 1,000 seafarers stranded on ships in Ukrainian ports and food supplies running low, the United Nations is pressing for their safe passage out of danger but security risks and disagreements are hobbling those efforts, maritime sources say. (read more)

• AfDB president: Ukraine war could trigger a food crisis in Africa, March 29. By Jack Dutton, Al Jazeera. In September 2012, when Akinwumi Adesina was Nigeria’s agriculture minister, the country witnessed one of the worst-ever floods. The deluge engulfed 30 of Nigeria’s 36 states, killing 363 people and displacing more than two million others. The floods washed away farmlands, settlements and critical public infrastructure such as roads, bridges and power installations. (read more)

• Russia says it will reduce military activity near Ukraine capital, March 29. By Al Jazeera. Russian and Ukrainian negotiators have ended the first direct talks in more than two weeks in Istanbul, with Moscow saying it was ready to “fundamentally cut back” military activity near the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv and the northern city of Chernihiv. Deputy Defence Minister Alexander Fomin said the move was meant “to increase trust” in talks aimed at ending the fighting, as negotiators met face-to-face on Tuesday after several rounds of failed talks. (read more)

• E.ON and Australia’s FFI to explore green hydrogen shipments to Europe, March 29. By Christoph Steitz, Reuters. Germany’s largest energy group E.ON (EONGn.DE) on Tuesday signed a memorandum of understanding with the green power arm of Australian miner Fortescue Metals (FMG.AX) to explore shipping green hydrogen to Europe and help wean itself off Russian gas. (read more)

• Shares, bond yields jump after “encouraging” Russia-Ukraine talks, March 29. By  Marc Jones, Reuters.  World share markets and global borrowing costs surged on Tuesday, as the first face-to-face talks between warring Russia and Ukraine in nearly three weeks yielded signs of progress.(read more)

• Oil drops on positive signals from Russia-Ukraine peace talks, March 29. By  Bozorgmehr Sharafedin, Reuters. Oil prices dropped on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous day after Russia called peace talks with Ukraine constructive and China’s new lockdowns to curb the spread of the coronavirus hit fuel demand. (read more)
• Russia to buy back $2 bln in Eurobond-2022 for roubles, March 29. By Reuters. Russia said on Tuesday it was launching a buyback offer on its $2 billion sovereign Eurobonds maturing on April 4, its biggest debt payment of the year, and would make full payment to bondholders taking up the offer in roubles. (read more)
• UAE, Saudi say OPEC+ should not play politics, March 29. By Maha El Dahan, Riham Alkousaa and Yousef Saba, Reuters. The energy ministers of Saudia Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, key members of OPEC+, said on Tuesday the producers’ group should not engage in politics as pressure mounted on them to take action against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. (read more)
• U.S. Senators want Russia removed from U.N. Human Rights Council, March 29. By  Patricia Zengerle, Reuters. A dozen members of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee urged President Joe Biden’s administration to push for Russia’s removal from the United Nations Human Rights Council, citing its invasion of Ukraine. (read more) Reuters
• Russia promises to scale down operations; Ukraine proposes neutrality, March 29. By Reuters. Russia promised at peace talks on Tuesday to drastically scale down its military operations around Kyiv and the northern Ukrainian city of Chernihiv, while Ukraine proposed neutral status with international guarantees to protect it from attack. (read more)
• List of companies still buying Russian crude oil, March 29. By Al Jazeera. Several Western countries, including the United States, imposed an outright ban on Russian energy imports, following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, but major European economies dependent on Russian oil and gas have avoided drastic measures showing the divide in the European Union. Australia, Britain, Canada and the US have banned the import of Russian oil purchases in the wake of the Russian aggression, which has triggered the biggest refugee crisis in decades. (read more)

• Russia sanctions redraw shipping routes, cleaving East from West, March 29. John Psaropoulos, Al Jazeera. Western sanctions punishing Russia for its invasion of Ukraine are reorganising global trade along political lines, defying geography and efficiency. This new reality is creating a windfall for merchant shipping, but risks creating higher prices for European consumers and hunger for Africa. (read more) 

• Ukraine crisis: The war that is changing relations, rules, March 28. By Swaminathan Gurumurthy, VIF. Having pushed Ukraine into war, the US does not know how to save it. Having started it, Russia does not know where to end it. Having been pushed into the war, Ukraine does not know how to come out of it. It accuses its adversary Russia saying it is an invader and charges that its friends are betrayers. The UN Security Council keeps on meeting without any result. The global TV network for which the war is a reality show, a boon, keeps demonising Russia and valourising Ukraine. What the desperate Ukraine needs is a ceasefire. It is running from pillar to post — from India to Turkey to France, to Israel, to Japan — pleading with them to talk to Putin for a ceasefire. Everyone is talking to everyone else. (read more)

• Ukraine: As history returns to haunt the world, March 28. By Swaminathan Gurumurthy, VIF. In the early 1990s, Francis Fukuyama proclaimed that with the liberal democracy and the free market economy of the West finally emerging as a one-size-fits-all model for all nations, all conflicts that were the source of history had ended. That became the “moolmantra” of globalisation. Fukuyama ambitiously saw the convergence of the conflicting opposites — Free Market and Liberal State with Communism and Stateless Marxism — as the end of history leading to the perfect society-State envisioned by Hegel, the 18th century German philosopher. How? It calls for a recall of the short socio-political history since Fukuyama wrote his thesis. (read more)

• Can Russia return to the world stage, as other aggressor nations?, March 29. By Al Jazeera. The war in Ukraine has turned Russian President Vladimir Putin into a pariah – at least in the West. The United States is trying to remove Moscow from the Group of 20 (G20) block of nations and continues to penalise Russia with sanctions along with its European partners, which are simultaneously rushing to wean themselves from Russian oil. (read more)

• The promises and perils of new technologies to improve education and employment opportunities, March 28. By Annelies Goger, Allyson Parco, and Emiliana Vegas, Brookings. Digital technologies are rapidly developing and transforming the way individuals work, learn, and participate in civic life. As digital innovations become more available and present opportunities to make quality learning and career opportunities more accessible across the globe, educational institutions, administrative data systems, and regulatory frameworks have struggled to adapt. Through research on the landscape of digital micro-credentials, we hope to provide insights and policy recommendations to decisionmakers and stakeholders, such as education and labor policymakers, to expand access to skills and quality jobs to the most disadvantaged learners and workers across the world. (read more)

• The coming of strategic autonomy in the Gulf, March 29. By  Kabir Taneja, ORF. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought to the forefront crevasses in the international order amidst a larger unfolding of great-power competition. While the US and the EU have acted in concert to isolate Russia on the world stage, others, such as India and the Gulf states are looking to try and maintain a level of neutrality. (read more)

• Is Greater Eurasia Possible Without Europe: A Security Perspective?, March 28. By Wang Yiwei, Duan Minnong, Valdai Discussion Club.  It is up to European countries, including Russia, to talk through a future European security structure: even though strategically Russia can rely on its Asian partners, it cannot separate itself from Europe geographically. If Russia intends to promote Greater Eurasia eastward smoothly, European stability should be taken into consideration: cooperation with the Belt and Road Initiative, whose route goes to west, is also a major part of Greater Eurasia. (read more)

• Saint Javelin of Limited Supply, March 28. By John Schaus, CSIS. The United States and other countries in NATO, the European Union, and around the world watched in disbelief as Russia steadily shelled Ukrainian towns—and its people—for a month. While the world watched, the flow of weapons to support Ukraine’s self-defense moved at a fast pace. The White House announced over $1 billion in assistance to Ukraine. Other countries have announced their own efforts to supply Ukraine with military equipment. The situation in Ukraine even caused Germany to revise both its military export policy and its national defense spending. (read more)

• Rhetoric Versus Reality: The European Union and Imports of Russian Natural Gas, March 28. By Mateusz Kubiak, The Jamestown Foundation. On March 8, the European Commission announced plans to cut European Union imports of Russian natural gas by two-thirds by the end of 2022 (EurActiv—Polish service, March 9). Last year, Russia supplied EU consumers with 155 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas. Moreover, the EU said it is working on a proposal to introduce a binding ban on all Russian energy resources supplies by 2027 (Twitter.com/vonderleyen, March 11). The strong rhetoric signals that, in the face of a Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, EU countries are fully committed to phasing out energy cooperation with Vladimir Putin’s Russia. However, this is only partially true. Indeed, at present, Russian gas flows to the European Union are rising, not declining, and only a few countries of the bloc would be ready to immediately cut their energy ties to Europe’s massive eastern neighbor. (read more)

• Russia Redeploys Troops From Its Bases in Georgia to Ukraine, March 28. By Zaal Anjaparidze, The Jamestown Foundation. The Kremlin’s large-scale war against Ukraine has vividly demonstrated various weaknesses of the Russian military. And as Russian losses have mounted, speculation grew quickly about whether Moscow would seek to redeploy additional troops to the front lines from different regions, including Georgia. That possibility appears to have come to pass. (read more)

• Russia’s Strategic Confusion in Ukraine Deepens and Widens. March 28. By Pavel K.Baev, The Jamestown Foundation. For at least the past 3 weeks of the 33-day-long war against Ukraine, it has been clear that the Russian offensive has lost momentum, with its key groupings of forces stuck in the suburbs of Kyiv, Kharkiv and Mykolaiv. The question that all concerned observers have been asking is what the ostracized Russian leadership will do in this unwinnable situation. Western leaders, led by United States President Joseph Biden, met together at three emergency summits in various formats last Thursday (March 24) to find ways to dissuade the Kremlin from seeking to break this deadlock through sharp escalation—perhaps even with the use of Russian nuclear weapons (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, March 24). On Friday, an ambivalent signal from the Russian top brass indicated that an answer involving de-escalation and a reduction of Russia’s over-ambitious goals was at least being considered in Moscow. (read more)