GLI USA E LA SFIDA CLIMATICA

TODAY:

• AROUND THE WORLD
• DEFENSE – MILITARY
• TECH

AROUND THE WORLD

Africa

• May 10, 2022. By Chigozie Nweke-Eze and Rainer Quitzow, Brookings. Abundant energy resources in many parts of Africa position the continent as a potential location for the production and export of climate-friendly hydrogen, based either on renewable electricity (green hydrogen) or natural gas in combination with carbon capture and storage technologies (blue hydrogen). Green hydrogen is produced via electrolysis by splitting water molecules into their component parts using renewable electricity, while blue hydrogen is produced by splitting natural gas into hydrogen and CO2—after which the CO2 needs to be captured and stored. The promise of African clean hydrogen exports: Potentials and pitfalls

Asia Pacific

• May 10, 2022. By Faizal Yahya, East Asia Forum. With the global aviation market still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Asia Pacific region has gone from a world leader in aviation growth to a laggard. Airports Council International (ACI) data indicates that air passenger traffic in the Asia Pacific region experienced a 62.7 per cent reduction from 2019 to 2021. In comparison, the total world passenger traffic decreased by only 48.3 per cent. Slow take-off for Asia Pacific aviation during COVID-19 recovery

Belarus

• May 10, 2022. By  Steven Pifer, The Jamestown Foundation. In a May 5 interview with the Associated Press, Belarus dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka expressed concern that the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War could see the use of nuclear weapons. Lukashenka called such use “unacceptable because it’s right next to us.”  He has good reason for concern. Belarus has good reason for concern over Putin’s nuclear intimidation
• May 10, 2022. By Grigory Ioffe, The Jamestown Foundation. While the Belarusian opposition insists that President Alyaksandr Lukashenka is unworthy of attention because he no longer has anything to offer to the collective West (YouTube, May 2), opposition leader and 2020 presidential candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya is seen navigating the corridors of power in Europe and the United Sates (Euroradio, May 4). And yet, Western journalists continue to request Lukashenka for interviews, which, indeed, he has lately been sitting down for “much more frequently than prior to 2020” (Svaboda.org, May 5). Notably, on May 5, Lukashenka gave a 1.5-hour interview to Ian Phillips, the vice president of the Associated Press (AP) news agency (YouTube, President.gov.by, May 5). Belarusian President Speaks to the West

Black Sea

• May 10, 2022. By John C. K. Daly, The Jamestown Foundation. Since Classical times up through the violence of World War I, the issue of control of the Bosporus, Sea of Marmara and Dardanelles—the Turkish Straits, which connect the Black Sea with the eastern Mediterranean—has vexed kings and admirals and led to the rise and fall of empires. When the largest global conflict until that time ended in November 1918, the newly emerged Republic of Turkey, led by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, was committed to restoring its sovereignty over the Straits while providing for the commercial and naval concerns of Black Sea and non–Black Sea countries in an equitable manner. With Communism, Fascism and Nazism beginning to roil the European continent, Atatürk’s diplomatic abilities to compromise resulted in the 1936 Montreux Convention regarding the Regime of the Straits. Thanks to its shrewdly written text, that 86-year-old treaty remains relevant and in force in the 21^st century, despite periodic diplomatic complaints about the document by both signatory and non-signatory countries. Referee and Goalkeeper of the Turkish Straits: The Relevance and Strategic Implications of the Montreux Convention for Conflict in the Black Sea

China

• May 11, 2022. By Xunpeng Shi, East Asia Forum. The energy price surge and crunch in late 2021 and the ongoing crisis in Ukraine have renewed global momentum for replanning energy transition roadmaps. While some suggest accelerating clean energy transitions to cope with surging energy prices, others are taking the opposite approach. China’s changing climate action roadmap

Europe – Russia

• May 10. By Ben Cahill, CSIS. The European Union is debating an embargo on Russian crude oil and petroleum products, as well as restrictions on the shipping of oil and products from Russia. If approved, the ban will likely include a longer phase-in period for some countries, and Russia will be able to divert some volumes to Asia. But EU measures would force Russia to shut in some production, tightening the oil market and driving up prices. European Union Prepares to Ban Russian Oil

Japan

• May 10, 2022. By Diana Schnelle, East Asia Forum. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 shook the world to its core. Unsurprisingly, the vast majority of states didn’t hesitate to publicly condemn Russia’s unilateral aggression and express solidarity with Ukraine. Japan was no exception. Tokyo has joined the international response to Putin’s aggression by imposing sanctions on Russia on an unprecedented scale. Japan’s energy mix after the Ukraine crisis

Russia

• May 10, 2022. By Atlantic Council. As Russia continues its assault on Ukraine, the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab) is keeping a close eye on Russia’s movements across the military, cyber, and information domains. With more than seven years of experience monitoring the situation in Ukraine, as well as Russia’s use of propaganda and disinformation to undermine the United States, NATO, and the European Union, the DFRLab’s global team presents the latest installment of the Russian War Report. Russian War Report: Russia accidentally honors Bonnie and Clyde during Victory Day celebration
• May 10, 2022. By Paul Globe, The Jamestown Foundation. At present, Moscow can move ships, including the naval vessels of the Caspian Flotilla, between the Caspian Sea and the Sea of Azov for only about eight months out of the year because of low water levels in the Volga–Don Canal. However, because of the Kremlin’s desire to reintegrate and dominate the former Soviet republics to the south of Russia, including Ukraine, and be able to use the ships of its Caspian Flotilla not only against Ukraine but in the Black Sea and Mediterranean, Moscow has now announced plans for a major effort to widen and deepen the canal. Those improvements would permit ships to transit the Volga–Don Canal 365 days out of the year. Officials say that the $10 billion project will be completed in 2030. And some of them suggest that Chinese firms will play a major role in this effort, given that Russian companies currently cannot obtain Western support and lack the domestic capacity to complete such a giant undertaking. Russia Seeks to Keep Water Transit Between Caspian and Azov Seas Open Year Round

Russia – Ukraine

• May 10, 2022. By  Bryant Harris, Defense News. The House on Tuesday passed a $40 billion military and humanitarian aid package for Ukraine 368-57 — opting to provide Kyiv with $7 billion more than President Joe Biden initially sought in his supplemental request last month. The bill now awaits a vote in the Senate, where it is widely expected to pass with robust bipartisan support. House passes $40 billion Ukraine aid package
• May 10, 2022. By Atlantic Council. As Russian President Vladimir Putin confronts a series of humiliating battlefield setbacks since his February 24 invasion of Ukraine, and amid an increased flow of Western arms into the country, the risk of escalation remains all too real. Will Putin use nuclear weapons in Ukraine? Our experts answer three burning questions
• May 10, 2022. By Richard Arnold, The Jamestown Foundation. Moscow may be drawing most of its conscripts for the war in Ukraine from ethnic minority regions such as Buryatia and Dagestan (see EDM, May 4), but there appears to be a wartime division of labor amongst the voluntarist Cossack movement as well. In particular, one can observe a distinction between “fighters” and “cheerleaders”—that is, those Cossacks actually engaged in combat in a war zone versus those tasked with maintaining morale back on the home front. Evidence of this seeming division of labor requires a close reading of the local media sources linked to the Cossack movement, such as the website of the All-Russian Cossack Society (Vsko.ru). As of early May, this site published a total of 70 articles related to Cossack involvement in the war effort, of which 21 named a specific host in the title. Fully one-third of those articles (7) concerned the Kuban Cossacks, with most reporting on that group’s combat role. Russia’s Cossacks: ‘Fighters’ Versus ‘Cheerleaders’

USA

• May 10, 2022. By Barry G. Rabe and Christopher Borick. Americans continue to favor reducing greenhouse gas emissions as their preferred approach for staving off the worst impacts of climate change, according to new public opinion findings. The public remains considerably more skeptical of any pivot from mitigation toward climate policy that prioritizes adaptation, use of geoengineering that releases particles into the atmosphere in attempting to deter warming, or subterranean carbon storage. These findings emerge from the Winter 2022 National Surveys on Energy and Environment (NSEE). Emission reduction remains public’s preferred approach to climate change

Yemen – Saudi Arabia

• May 10, 2022. By Bruce Riedel, Brookings. The fragile ceasefire in Yemen between the Saudis and the Zaydi Shia Houthi rebels has lasted more than a month, despite a key clause concerning resumption of commercial flights being blocked. The United States behind the scenes has quietly abandoned seven years of broken diplomacy to play a more useful and balanced role. American distancing from Saudi Arabia has helped get the truce. The immediate priority should be to get commercial flights out of the capital Sana’a and then get an open-ended extension of the ceasefire before it expires in early June. The Yemen truce reflects a broader Saudi turn to detente with its regional rivals. How to bolster Yemen and Saudi Arabia’s brittle peace deal

DEFENSE – MILITARY

• May 10, 2022. By  José Higuera, Defense News. Colombia has asked the U.S. about procuring secondhand M1A2 Abrams tanks to bolster the armored capacity of its land forces, local military sources have told Defense News. Colombia is currently on a path to becoming a major non-NATO ally of the U.S., with President Joe Biden in March announcing the process has begun. Colombia seeks Abrams tanks amid new ally status with US
• May 10, 2022. By Kyle Rempfer, Defense News. Reestablishing the 11th Airborne Division in Alaska could entail cutting Stryker vehicles from a brigade there and adding personnel to create an operational headquarters. But the changes are expected to be cost-neutral in the immediate future and even the manpower added to the upgraded headquarters would come out of the cannibalized Stryker brigade, should that plan move forward, Army Secretary Christine Wormuth told the Senate Appropriations Committee Tuesday. Army looks to take Stryker vehicles out of Alaska

TECH

• May 10, 2022. By Mark MacCarthy, Brookings. After years of letting them manage their own systems and content moderation practices with little or no public supervision, governments around the world are throwing a regulatory net over digital companies. Online regulation measures have been adopted or are pending in Australia, Canada, the European Union, Germany, Ireland, the United Kingdom and the United States. Last year’s revelations by Facebook whistle-blower Frances Haugen have prompted these governments to redouble their efforts to reduce social media addiction and the spread of harmful content. The war in Ukraine has accelerated this push and greatly complicated it, simultaneously. Transparency is the best first step towards better digital governance
• May 10, 2022. By Anton Korinek and Avital Balwit, Brookings. As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes more powerful and widespread, the AI alignment problem – how to ensure that AI systems pursue the goals that we want them to pursue – has garnered growing attention. This article distinguishes two types of alignment problems depending on whose goals we consider, and analyzes the different solutions necessitated by each. The direct alignment problem considers whether an AI system accomplishes the goals of the entity operating it. In contrast, the social alignment problem considers the effects of an AI system on larger groups or on society more broadly. In particular, it also considers whether the system imposes externalities on others. Whereas solutions to the direct alignment problem typically center around more robust implementation, social alignment problems typically arise because of conflicts between individual and group-level goals, elevating the importance of AI governance to mediate such conflicts. Addressing the social alignment problem requires both enforcing existing norms on their developers and operators and designing new norms that apply directly to AI systems. Aligned with whom? Direct and social goals for AI systems