FOCUS
L’incertezza del tempo che viviamo, qui intesa nell’accezione negativa, ci mette di fronte alla difficoltà di elaborare scenari. Zehrid Osmani (Martin Currie, gruppo Franklin Templeton), in una intervista a Il Sole 24 Ore del 22 maggio 2022, dice: La frenata degli indicatori di fiducia che anticipano le tendenze macroeconomiche è ormai sotto gli occhi di tutti, soprattutto in Cina dove si deve fare i conti con la politica tolleranza zero nei confronti del Covid. Un rallentamento globale resta lo scenario più atteso, con una probabilità del 60-65% di verificarsi, ma non si può neppure escludere una stagflazione, evento che adesso stimiamo al 10-15% da meno del 5% di inizio anno. L’Europa appare l’area più vulnerabile sia al ciclo economico globale, sia alle vicende legate alla guerra fra Russia e Ucraina. Osmani, parlando a ipotetici investitori, si concentra su tre megatrend: I tre megatrend legati al cambiamento demografico, allo sviluppo tecnologico e alla scarsità di risorse permettono inoltre di cogliere temi di crescita strutturale a lungo termine allineati a un mondo in transizione verso un futuro più sostenibile.
E’ interessante lavorare, non solo dal punto di vista economico e dei mercati, sui tre megatrend sopra indicati. Una riflessione di civiltà deve fare i conti, nei “dove”, con il governo delle questioni decisive della demografia, della rivoluzione tecnologica e della scarsità di risorse. Il tutto, in visioni glocali, offre già gli elementi di uno scenario da costruire e nel quale operare in funzione di una sostenibilità complessa.
A proposito di scarsità di risorse, la crisi alimentare – aggravata dalla guerra russo-ucraina – rischia di assumere proporzioni davvero preoccupanti. Alberto Magnani e Marco Valsania (Il Sole 24 Ore, 22 maggio 2022) scrivono: Prima il blocco delle esportazioni da Ucraina e Russia, il “magazzino” che contribuisce a quasi un terzo delle vendite globali di grano. Ora il veto emesso dall’India il 13 maggio, sia pure con la clausola di rifornire i Paesi più in difficoltà. La guerra nell’Est Europa sta strozzando il commercio globale di materie prime agricole, scatenando l’allarme per una crisi alimentare già annunciata prima dell’escalation di Mosca. A farne le spese sono soprattutto i paesi africani, appesi alla dipendenza dai flussi crealicoli in arrivo dal Mar Nero. Russia e Ucraina incidono da sole su oltre il 40% delle importazioni di grano in Africa, con percentuali che salgono fino a picchi come l’80% nella Repubblica democratica del Congo, il 90% in Somalia e il 100% in Eritrea. Ma l’esposizione veleggia su valori elevati anche in altre aree del Continente, dalla Libia al Camerun, dal Kenya alla Tunisia.
Nessuna crisi è slegata dalle altre. I “dove” qui descritti, coinvolti in maniera crescente nella crisi alimentare, subiranno impatti nell’accesso-alla-vita e, dunque, ne avranno un contraccolpo le situazioni politiche, le migrazioni e la sicurezza interna ed esterna. Gli effetti della guerra in Ucraina si legano alle conseguenze, sempre più evidenti, dei cambiamenti climatici. Così si riscriverà la geografia a livello glocale e le storie che potremo raccontare (organizzando i dati con l’ausilio delle tecnologie della “scienza del dove”), guardando a quei Paesi e all’Europa, ci parleranno di una realtà in trasformazione sempre più veloce e sempre più radicale.
“Geolocalizzare” queste dinamiche è fondamentale, a partire dalla conoscenza e dalla comprensione dei numeri. Ancora Magnani e Valsania (Il Sole 24 Ore, 22 maggio 2022): L’organizzazione delle Nazioni Unite per l’alimentazione e l’agricoltura, la Fao, stimava che nel 2020 almeno 323,2 milioni di persone versassero in forme “severe” di insicurezza alimentare in tutta l’Africa subsahariana. Ora il World Food Programme dell’Onu prospetta un aumento del 17% della condizione di “fame acuta”, vale a dire circa 378 milioni di persone, con impatti maggiori proprio fra Africa occidentale, orientale e australe.
Ci sarà, come elemento inevitabile, un aumento di quella che potremmo definire mobilità costretta e ciò comporterà non solo lo spostamento di milioni di persone (si pensi, per restare alla cronaca, ai grandi numeri degli sfollati ucraini) ma la ri-configurazione degli assetti urbani e territoriali nonché, di conseguenza, un peso ulteriore sui servizi pubblici fondamentali quali scuola, sanità, gestioni delle multiutility. Così, in questo quadro, torna centrale il governo del territorio come fatto e come fattore di pensiero strategico per decisioni pertinenti.
FROM THINK TANKS
AROUND THE WORLD
Baloch People
- May 22. 2022. By Tejusvi Shukla, VIF. A suicide bombing that killed three Chinese nationals in the Pakistani city of Karachi on April 26, 2022, has sent shock waves throughout the region. Notably, this incident rests on two problematically linked facts. One, this attack took place at the entrance of the University of Karachi’s Confucius Institute. Therefore, this was a targeted attack against Chinese nationals. Two, the suicide bomber was a Baloch by ethnicity. The Baloch National Army has already owned up the responsibility for the attack through a viral video claiming local opposition to the constantly increasing Chinese presence in the province due to the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The group has repeatedly warned against the exploitation of resources, mineral wealth, and strategic location of the province by the incoming Chinese in collusion with the Pakistani establishment at the cost of the local impoverished population. The Boiling Baloch Pot: A Continued Saga of Baloch Resistance
India – Asia
- May 21, 2022. By Shashank Mattoo, ORF. As American power in Asia fades, allies and adversaries are scrambling to define a new Asian order. Japan has moved to sign defence pacts with Australia and the United Kingdom while South Korea has made positive noises about joining the Quad. Beijing made waves in already troubled waters when news broke of a secretive security agreement with the Solomon Islands. India and a new Asian order
India – France – Indian Ocean
- May 21, 2022. By Sayantan Haldar, ORF. India and France’s shared maritime security and geopolitical interests in the Indo-Pacific encourage the two nations to strengthen their strategic maritime strategy. India and France in the Indian Ocean: The making of a new strategic partnership
Pakistan
- May 20, 2022. By Madiha Afzal, Brookings. Even by the standards of Pakistan’s perpetually unstable politics, the last ten weeks in the country have been exceptionally turbulent. Pakistan has a new government as of April 11 after Imran Khan was forced out via a vote of no confidence. The weeks leading up to the vote, from the filing of the motion on March 8 to the vote on April 10, were dramatic and full of intrigue. Now, the country is in economic and political crisis. Shahbaz Sharif’s new government has been in a state of decision paralysis and is struggling to find its footing, while the ousted prime minister is leading rallies across the country attacking the government’s legitimacy and calling for fresh elections. At the same time, Pakistan is also in the grip of an acute climate emergency. It’s not only political temperatures that are spiking: an unprecedented heat wave has enveloped Pakistan for weeks. What is happening in Pakistan’s continuing crisis?
Russia – Ukraine (on the ground, impact, reactions, consequences)
- May 22, 2022. By Susan Thornton, East Asia Forum. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has produced disaster on many fronts, most immediately for the people of Ukraine. The conflict has jolted Europe from a reverie of extended relative peace between major powers. Russia’s blatant violation of international law and Western sanctions in response are accelerating the reversal of globalisation that began under former US president Donald Trump and continued during COVID-19. Asia’s ambivalence towards sanctioning Russia
- May 21, 2022. By Lakshmi Puri, ORF. The United Nations (UN) has recently been plagued by several crises—the COVID-19 pandemic, the Taliban’s return in Afghanistan, and the Ukraine war—that have tested its ability to deliver on humanity’s projects of peace and security, sustainable development, human rights, and humanitarian response. Indeed, its actions and inactions in the Ukraine war have triggered an existential dilemma. India must use this moment of creative destruction in the world order to push for the reinvention of the intergovernmental organisation into a more democratic, impartial, and technically excellent ‘UN 2.0’. The Russia-Ukraine War: The Last Crisis to Break the UN Camel’s Back?
- May 21, 2022. By Nick Bisley, East Asia Forum. In 2022, there will be great interest in Asia’s summit season because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The annual East Asia Summit, ASEAN and APEC meetings always attract attention due to the proximity of many world leaders, but the less glamorous work of the multilateral mechanisms goes on throughout the year in efforts to drive cooperation as well as to prepare for the jamborees at the year’s end. The Ukraine war threatens Asia’s regional architecture
HORIZONS
Global Economy
- May 21, 2022. By Mengdi Yue and Christoph Nedopil, East Asia Forum. As COVID-19 continues to interrupt economic activities, induce higher public spending and decrease tax revenues, sovereign debt issues in emerging countries are worsening. The World Bank has noted that the debt burden of low-income countries rose 12 per cent to a record US$860 billion in 2020. COVID-19, the growing developing country debt burden and the special role of China
Global Sustainable Development
- May 20, 2022. By Christian Kastrop, John McArthur, Sébastian Treyer, Think7. The world’s systems of international cooperation are facing three great conflicts at once: violent conflict in Ukraine, political conflict between great powers, and a fissure between the near-term priorities of the world’s rich and powerful societies and the long-term needs of both poorer societies and the planet itself. The first two conflicts exacerbate the third. Amid massive investment shortfalls, the global sustainable development agenda is on the brink. Next year, 2023, will mark the midpoint to the Sustainable Development Goal deadline of 2030. It’s high time to start preparations for a better “second half” of the SDG era. The G7 needs to be a two-pronged leader, one that lends all its supportive muscle to mobilize required forms of capital while also leading through the power of its own influential example. Three deep structural changes over the past two decades have shifted the context for G7 contributions: (1) the smaller relative power of G7 countries on the global stage, (2) the more complex and fragmented policy terrain, and (3) the flawed heritage of high-profile G7/8 commitments. Amid the world’s deep practical interconnections between the “infrastructure agenda,” the “climate agenda,” and the “sustainable development agenda,” all G7 countries need to prioritize their domestic implementation of the SDGs. In parallel, they need to help mobilize a massive scale-up of public and private resources for global sustainable development. This includes partnering with other countries to instigate profound changes in the scale and business models of the multilateral development banks, while also taking a leadership role to promote SDG alignment in public and private financing systems. G7 efforts relating to infrastructure should be pursued in the larger context of the 2023 moment for the SDGs and existing efforts coordinated through the G20 and elsewhere. The G7 can further consider a range of proposals to boost a partnership-driven approach to international cooperation on specific issues. Issue Paper: Ramping up investments in a better future: The need for a refreshed G7 approach to realize the opportunity of global sustainable development
TECH & DIGITAL
- May 20, 2022. By Gregory C. Allen, CSIS. Over the past 10 years, artificial intelligence (AI) technology has become increasingly critical to scientific breakthroughs and technology innovation across an ever-widening set of fields, and warfare is no exception. In pursuit of new sources of competitive advantage, militaries around the world are working to accelerate the integration of AI technology into their capabilities and operations. However, the rise of military AI has brought with it fears of a new AI arms race and a potential new source of unintended conflict escalation. One Key Challenge for Diplomacy on AI: China’s Military Does Not Want to Talk
- May 20, 2022. By Sujai Shivakumar, Charles Wessner, Thomas Howell, CSIS. All major U.S. defense systems and platforms rely on semiconductors for their performance, and the erosion of U.S. capabilities in microelectronics is a direct threat to the United States’ ability to defend itself and its allies. The Pillars Necessary for a Strong Domestic Semiconductor Industry
