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Think TanksDiario Geostrategico

IL MONDO DI DAVOS E’ FINITO ?

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FOCUS

May 30, 2022. By , Project-Syndicate – The Strategist. Now that we have entered a new period of geopolitical conflict, protectionism and regionalism, one wonders whether the cosmopolitan, globalised world of Davos is gone forever. Returning after a two-year pandemic-induced hiatus, this year’s World Economic Forum meeting in the Swiss Alps was a shadow of its former self. The death of Davos?

FROM THINK TANKS

HORIZONS

  • May 30, 2022. By Stormy-Annika Mildner, ORF. Russia’s war on Ukraine, interrupted value chains, and increased regionalisation are putting pressures on the already-strained multilateral trading system. Though a strong World Trade Organization (WTO) is needed to navigate these challenges, the organisation risks becoming irrelevant if far-reaching reforms are not implemented as soon as possible. In the short- and medium-term, WTO members must agree on limiting export barriers, especially on vaccines and food products, and compromise on fisheries subsidies. In the long-term, the WTO rulebook must be updated, and the dispute settlement mechanism reformed for the organisation to remain relevant.  The World in Disarray: Is This the End of Multilateralism for Trade?

DEFENSE – MILITARY

  • May 29, 2022. By Guo Yuandan and Liu Xuanzun, Global Times. In the first such move, China’s state broadcaster revealed on Sunday that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force deployed fighter jets as escorts for Chinese and Russian bombers during last week’s regular joint aerial strategic patrol in the Asia-Pacific region by the two major powers, with experts saying more advanced fighter jets like China’s J-20 and Russia’s Su-57 could join the patrol next time. China’s J-16 fighter jets deployed in latest joint strategic patrol with Russia

AROUND THE WORLD

Australia

  • May 30, 2022. By East Asia Forum. As one old political hand remarked in the aftermath of Australia’s momentous federal election, the shifts underway in the country’s politics are similar to the effects of climate change: they happen very slowly, then all at once. Australia’s political climate changes

Australia – China

  • May 30, 2022. By , The Strategist. Australia and the South Pacific need to talk. The immediate conversation is about the duelling trips to the islands by China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, and Australia’s new foreign minister, Penny Wong. Australia’s voice and the China duel in the South Pacific
  • May 29, 2022. By Andrew Chubb, East Asia Forum. The change of government in Canberra opens the possibility of a thaw in Australia’s diplomatic relations with China. Since 2017, the Australian government has adopted an array of tough China policies on issues ranging from 5G communications to COVID-19. In response, Beijing imposed a diplomatic freeze and since May 2020, informal economic sanctions on Australian exports including barley, coal, beef and wine. Time for Australia to counter Beijing’s cross-border coercion and de-securitise ‘Chinese influence’

Australia – France

  • May 30, 2022. By  Nic Maclellan, The Interpreter. The newly elected Albanese government has made initial steps to reset its relationship with France, ruptured by the AUKUS agreement and the cancellation of the $90 billion Naval Group submarine contract. But the two countries will soon face dilemmas over France’s opposition to decolonisation in New Caledonia, one of Australia’s closest neighbours. Australia can’t stay silent on decolonisation in the Pacific

China

  • May 30, 2022. By Global Times, Xinhua. On Friday afternoon, Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, presided over the 39th group study session of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee to further a national research project on tracing the origins of Chinese civilization. Xi calls for advancing study of Chinese civilization
  • May 30, 2022. By Global Times. Two mega-kilowatt pumped storage power plants in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) officially started power generation on May 28, marking the power grid capacity in the GBA leading the world with the largest installed pumped storage, the strongest grid adjustment capacity, and the highest proportion of clean energy consumption among international bay areas, Chinese media cnr.cn reported on Monday. Two mega-kilowatt pumped storage power plants start operation in Greater Bay Area
  • May 29, 2022. By Xie Jun, Global Times. Shanghai authorities on Sunday sent a clear signal of economic stabilization by rolling out a total of 50 stimulus measures to support the local economy, with a focus on business resumption and employment stabilization, as the city inches toward a full recovery from the most severe COVID-19 outbreak. Shanghai takes 50 measures to support economy as city eyes full recovery from COVID-19
  • May 29, 2022. By Global Times. Area harvested for winter wheat had hit 37.98 million mu (2.53 million hectares) across China as of Saturday, with daily mechanically harvested wheat crops totaling 6.78 million mu, signaling a nationwide rollout of summer wheat harvesting, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said on Sunday.  Mechanized wheat harvesting in full swing across China, aims to stabilize prices
  • May 27, 2022. By Jayadeva Ranade, VIF. China is headed for a difficult period. A variety of factors have converged to make this a potentially volatile period. With barely six months to go for the crucial 20th Party Congress, it will be a period of particularly heightened concern for Chinese President Xi Jinping. This especially as he has been in charge of the economic and foreign policy portfolios, both being areas where major problems loom. Chinese academics and strategists have for some years blamed Xi for China’s deteriorating relations with the US. Now, following the Xi-Putin Summit on February 4 in Beijing, he is additionally personally associated with China’s support to Russia and Putin and imposing further strain on Sino-US relations. The latter has raised the uncomfortable prospect for Chinese Communist Party (CCP) members and China of being targeted with sanctions by the US and West. Troubled Times Ahead for China and Xi Jinping

China – Fiji

China – Sri Lanka

China – USA 

  • May 29, 2022. By Liu Xin, Global Times. UN human rights chief Michelle Bachelet has wrapped up her six-day visit in China, including its Xinjiang region, but her statement that showcased her team’s wide interactions with people from different sectors in China and progress in facilitating future exchanges between Beijing and Geneva seemed to have disappointed the US. Meanwhile, anti-China forces attempting to use the visit to nail the allegation of “genocide” on China are now trying to deny Bachelet’s visit and attacking China for “manipulating” her trip for propaganda.  UN human rights chief wraps up China visit after wide interactions with all sectors

Europe – Arab Diasporas

  • May 24, 2022. By Arab Reform Iniziative. Over the past decade, Europe has been experiencing an important wave of migration emanating from the Arab region, reaching its peak in 2015. These migratory flows and subsequent processes of diasporization of MENA populations in European spaces has often been the result of deteriorating conditions in home countries, including intractable conflict, repression and renewed authoritarianism, and economic and even State collapse. Yet, alongside this expansion and diversification of MENA diaspora communities in Europe has been a mixture of increasing popular and political hostility in host sites to migrants and asylum seekers along with the opening of new opportunities for diaspora organization and mobilization. Sites in Europe – cities, virtual forums, transnational networks – have emerged as spaces in which new political identities and modes of political activism are forming among Arab diaspora communities. A crucial dimension in these processes of diasporization, identity formation and re-formation, and political mobilization has been the diversification of media and the expanded offer of information and communications technology. Mediatized Arab Diasporas: Understanding the Role of Transnational Media in Diasporic Political Action Formation

Hong Kong

  • May 29, 2022. By Global Times. The national security law in Hong Kong, which took effect on June 30 in 2020 following prolonged social unrest in the previous year, has further consolidated the city’s role as an international financial center, Paul Chan, financial secretary of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR), said on Sunday. IPOs in HK raise over $82.8b after national security law: finance chief

Iran

Israel

  • May 29, 2022. By Dore Gold, JCPA. How are we to understand the meaning of Jerusalem Day, when we commemorate the reunification of our historical capital? In 1997, I served as Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations and I asked for instruction from our foreign minister at the time, Ariel Sharon. He sent me back to the speech our first prime minister, David Ben-Gurion, gave to the Knesset on Dec. 5, 1949. Jerusalem Day: Correcting a Historical Injustice

Israel – Hamas

  • May 29, 2022. By Yoram Schweitzer, David Siman-Tov, INSS. Hamas has been working for the past year, and more specifically in the current wave of terrorism, to present itself as a powerful organization that succeeds in defeating Israel – even when things do not correspond to the situation on the ground. Israel repeatedly falls into the pit that Hamas has dug, failing to reflect the relations of the military forces before both the Palestinian and Israeli public. How can we win the game of cognition? The Cognitive War between Israel and Hamas: Implications and Recommendations

Kurdistan

Libya

  • May 29, 2022. By The Libya Observer. The Chairman of the Administrative Board of the Turkish Karanfil Group, Murtaza Karanfil, said cruise voyages between Turkey and Libya are boosting trade and tourism relations between the two countries. Cruise voyages are boosting trade relations between Libya and Turkey
  • May 29, 2022. By The Libya Observer. The Chairman of the General Electricity Company of Libya (GECOL), Wiam Al-Abdali, said that the municipalities that cooperate with GECOL and adhere to the plan for power loads would not experience load shedding hours, calling on all municipalities to follow the example of Abu Salim municipality for the benefit of the residents and to reduce energy consumption. GECOL says no power load shedding in cooperating municipalities
  • May 29, 2022. By The Libya Observer. Members of the judiciary police apparatus announced in a statement the suspension of work in all branches, calling on the Government of National Unity to provide food supplies and approve medical insurances for members of the apparatus. Judiciary police suspends work across Libya
  • May 29, 2022. By The Libya Observer. The Mayor of Derna Municipality, Abdel Moneim Al-Ghaithi, has discussed with the Italian Consul, Carlo Batori, coopration and relationship between the two countries and the need to strengthen it in the field of economy. Libyan-Italian talks on the reconstruction of Derna
  • May 29, 2022. By The Libya Observer. The Prime Minister of the Government of National Unity (GNU), Abdel Hamid Dbeibah, has met with the Chairman of the Steering Council of Tubruk Municipality, Faraj Bu Al-khatibiya, and the Mayor of Al-Qubba Municipality, Moussa Abudawiya, in the presence of the Deputy Prime Minister, Hussein Al-Qatrani and a number of government ministers. PM Dbeibah discusses difficulties facing eastern region municipalities
  • May 29, 2022. By The Libya Observer. The Chairman of the African Union Commission Moussa Faki said terrible had increased in the continent with the start of the Libyan crisis in 2011. African Union Commission: Libya crisis led to increase of terrorism in Africa

Russia – Ukraine (on the ground, impact)

  • May 30, 2022. By Nilanjan Ghosh, Soumya Bhowmick, ORF. The last few years proved extremely volatile for the food value-chain due to issues ranging from the pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions to the impacts of climate change on agriculture. To add to the already existing woes, the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has inflicted a major blow to the foundations of the global food security agenda. Why India’s food value-chain needs better risk management instruments amid Ukraine war
  • May 30, 2022. By Ian Hill, The Interpreter. What both sides might eventually have to settle for to end the fighting – and when – is far from clear. War in Ukraine: Gloomy prospects
  • May 29, 2022. By Karolina Hird, Mason Clark, and George Barros, ISW. New reports confirmed that Ukrainian forces conducted a successful limited counterattack near the Kherson-Mykolaiv oblast border on May 28, forcing Russian forces onto the defensive.This Ukrainian counterattack is likely intended to disrupt Russian efforts to establish strong defensive positions along the Southern Axis. While the Ukrainian counterattack does not appear likely to retake substantial territory in the near term, it will likely disrupt Russian operations and potentially force Russia to deploy reinforcements to the Kherson region, which is predominantly held by sub-standard units. Ukrainian counterattacks may additionally slow Russian efforts to consolidate administrative control of occupied southern Ukraine. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 29
  • May 27, 2022. By Valdai Discussion Club. The initial stage of confrontation between Russia and the West is a process of consolidating the positions of both opposing sides. One of its most obvious manifestations is the beginning of Finland and Sweden joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, writes Konstantin Khudoley, professor at the Faculty of International Relations at St. Petersburg State University. The consequences of this step for the future development of international relations in Europe and beyond can be very significant. Finland and Sweden Joining NATO: The Game Is Afoot
  • May 26, 2022. By Raquel Jorge Ricart, Elcano Royal Institute. he war in Ukraine has redesigned the forum that the European Union and the United States created in June 2021 to coordinate on key global issues of international trade and technology, the Trade and Technology Council (TTC). The effect of the conflict on global supply chains for critical gases and minerals in the semiconductor industry, the risk of a food crisis stemming from the lack of wheat crops’ exports produced in Ukraine, or the energy price war and its impact on the production of green technologies are some of the causes that knocked on the TTC’s door and led to a shift towards Ukraine. Ukraine in the spotlight of the Trade and Technology Council (TTC)

Somalia – USA

  • May 29, 2022. By Tricia Bacon, Lawfare. In May, Somalia gained a new president as well as a bolstered U.S. commitment to counterterrorism against al-Qaeda’s strongest affiliate, al-Shabaab. On May 15, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was elected president for the second time, returning to the office he held from 2012 to 2017. On May 16, it was reported that the United States had decided to (re)reposition several hundred of the troops stationed in East Africa back in Somalia, partially reversing a decision made in the waning days of the Trump administration to pull all U.S. troops out of Somalia. The move marks a shift from the previous practice, since January 2021, of U.S. troops “commuting” to Somalia from neighboring countries for short-term deployments. In addition, the United States has expanded its policy on drone strikes in Somalia from being used only to defend partner forces facing an immediate threat to also targeting about a dozen al-Shabaab high-value targets. Expanding U.S. Counterterrorism in Somalia Is Necessary but Insufficient – Lawfare (lawfareblog.com)

Syria

  • May 30, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. Turkish artillery shelled on Sunday the vicinity of the Umm Hawsh village in the northern countryside of Aleppo Governorate, near a military base of the government forces. Turkish Forces Shell Syrian Army Base in Aleppo
  • May 30, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. According to a Sham FM correspondent in Aleppo, the joint Syrian-Russian air force has carried out concentrated strikes on Turkish militant positions northwest of Aleppo. The strikes came at a time when Turkish occupation forces were targeting the Syrian Democratic forces (SDF)-controlled Ain al-Arab area in the northeastern countryside. Aleppo: Syrian-Russian Air Force Conducted Focused Strikes on Turkish Militant Positions
  • May 30, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. The Assistant Minister of Higher Education for Scientific Affairs said that more than 30 percent of the medical staff has emigrated outside the war-torn country over the past 11 years. More than 30% of Medical Staff Fled Syria Since 2011: Official
  • May 30, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. Over the past two days, Russia has implemented military precautions by maintaining its military presence north and northeast of Aleppo and strengthening Russian presence and movements in Raqqa and Hassakeh, northeast of the Euphrates River. Meanwhile, Turkish regime president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been blocked from carrying out his threats, made a week ago, to launch an aggression on Syrian territory to create the so-called 30-kilometre border “safe zone.”. Is Erdogan in Trouble?
  • May 30, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Opposition Coalition’s (SOC) political committee held a regular meeting in the presence of President Salem al-Meslet, President of the Syrian Negotiations Commission Anas Abdah, and Co-chair of the Constitutional Committee Hadi al-Bahra. SOC Selects Badr Jamous as Candidate to Head Syrian Negotiations Commission
  • May 30, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. The Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) called for peacekeeping forces on the borders separating the areas it runs from those held by Turkish forces. Syria’s AANES Calls for Peacekeeping Forces on Border with Turkey
  • May 30, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. In the last few hours, Turkey has informed the Syrian National Army factions that it has postponed the planned military operation in northern Syria, following a meeting held in the Hawar Kilis area, located on the Syrian-Turkish border. Turkey Postpones Military Operation in Northern Syria
  • May 30, 2022. By Sultan al-Kanj, Al-Monitor. Dozens of angry residents of al-Bab in the eastern countryside of Aleppo gathered on May 22 in front of the military police building in the city, demanding accountability for those responsible for the release from the military police prison of a regime army soldier accused of war crimes without bringing him to justice. Release of Syrian soldier accused or war crimes stirs protests

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