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Think TanksDiario Geostrategico

L’APPROVVIGIONAMENTO ENERGETICO DIVIDE L’UMANITA’

By Redazione

FOCUS

  • June 1, 2022. By UN News. Currently, 733 million people worldwide still do not have access to electricity, and 2.4 billion people still cook using fuels detrimental to their health and the environment.  At the current rate of progress, 670 million people will remain without electricity by 2030 – 10 million more than projected last year. The findings are from the 2022 edition of Tracking SDG 7: The Energy Progress Report, which monitors global efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG7) of ensuring affordable modern energy supply for everyone by 2030. Pandemic hampers progress to achieve universal energy access by 2030

THINK TANKS & GLOBAL NEWS

THE SCIENCE OF WHERE

  • June 1, 2022. By Sunny Fleming, Esri. As much as I was looking forward to extremely awkward attempts at virtual socials, I must admit that an in-person conference felt great to attend. I think the hallmark of a good conference really boils down to this one thing: were people inspired? I can report that for the National Association of Environmental Professionals (NAEP) Conference and Training Symposium, people certainly seemed inspired. I know I was. I think this feeling of inspiration comes from the fact that right now it’s a very interesting and exciting time to be an environmental professional. That really comes through as the zeitgeist; the spirit of the times we’re in and the mood that carried the conference. Takeaways from the National Association of Environmental Professionals Conference

PERSPECTIVES

  • June 1, 2022. By Homi Kharas, Brookings. Economies stagnating. Governments overindebted. The ashes of war impeding progress on international cooperation. A widespread sense of malaise and absence of urgency blocking the mobilization of capital. A Global Sustainability Program: Lessons from the Marshall Plan for addressing climate change
  • June 1, 2022. By UN News. Russia’s continued invasion of Ukraine is causing immense suffering and devastation there, but also creating a “perfect storm” which could devastate the economies of “many developing countries”, the UN chief warned on Wednesday. Ukraine: ‘Perfect storm’ threatens economic devastation in developing world
  • May 23, 2022. By Morgan Stanley. For many consumers, the biggest contributor to their environmental footprint may not be their daily commutes or cross-country flights—it’s their wardrobe. In fact, the apparel industry uses enough fresh water to quench the thirst of 5 million people a year, produces 20% of global wastewater and has a carbon intensity that exceeds aviation and shipping combined. It’s also a major contributor to microplastic pollution in soil and water. Sustainable Fashion Has a Long Runway
  • May 18, 2022. By Morgan Stanley. Stories about YouTubers and TikTok stars earning eight-figure incomes making videos may sound far-fetched, but they are indicative of an emerging investment theme—the multi-earner era. This evolution of the gig economy centers on platforms—from social media and gaming, to shared mobility and vacation rentals—that offer avenues for freelancers and full-time employees alike to make money outside of traditional employment. Gig Economy Is Now a Multi-Earner Era

TECH, DIGITAL, CYBER

AROUND THE WORLD
Americas
  • June 2, 2022. By Global Times. The US is scrambling to salvage the upcoming Summit of the Americas (SOA) amid a backlash over its attempt to exclude some “non-democratic leaders.” Observers said it is a sign of waning US leadership and influence in the region – an inevitable result of a long history of US meddling in the internal affairs of some countries in the region while bringing apparent risks and instability. US scrambles to salvage Summit of the Americas amid distrust over meddling
Asia Pacific

Australia

  • June 1, 2022. By World Nuclear News. The board of Boss Energy Limited has approved the final investment decision (FID) for the development of the Honeymoon in-situ leach (ISL) uranium project in South Australia. The Perth-based company said it will now accelerate engineering, procurement and construction, with production set for the final quarter of 2023. Boss Energy to restart production at Honeymoon : Uranium & Fuel

Belarus

  • June 1, 2022. By Grigory Ioffe, The Jamestown Foundation. The predominant feature of Belarus’s current situation vis-à-vis its neighbors is uncertainty. Will Belarus eventually participate in Russia’s military operation in Ukraine? Will Belarus retain its statehood or fall victim to Russia’s expansionism? No definitive responses to these questions exist, possibly even in the minds of the Belarusian leadership. Belarusian Foreign Policy in Circumstances Beyond Minsk’s Control

China

China – Japan

  • June 2, 2022. By Global Times. Chinese Ambassador to Japan Kong Xuanyou said on Wednesday that the relations between China and Japan are at a crucial crossroads, as Japan, in an apparent collaboration with the US, is increasingly considering China a strategic threat. The envoy urged Japan not to cross the red line on the Taiwan question, warning a “destructive impact” on bilateral ties if the situation is not handled properly, at a conference organized by one of the Japanese associations that are friendly to China, to commemorate the 50 years of diplomatic relations between China and Japan, on Wednesday. China-Japan ties at a crucial crossroads; Tokyo’s handling of Taiwan question serious obstacle to bilateral relations: Chinese envoy
China – Russia
  • June 1, 2022. By CSIS. China has largely eschewed formal alliances, but over the years Beijing has increasingly courted close ties with Russia. On February 4, 2022, just weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Beijing and issued a historic joint statement emphasizing that the bilateral relationship has “no limits,” and that “there are no ‘forbidden’ areas of cooperation” between them. What Are the Key Strengths of the China-Russia Relationship?

China – USA

DR Congo

Iran
  • June 1, 2022. By Raz Zimmt, INSS. Disagreements between Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and his rivals in the conservative camp have intensified in recent weeks. Politicians, media outlets, and hardline clerics have criticized him, reflecting growing dismay with his policy and failure to improve the economic situation. At the same time, disputes have also recently emerged between the government and the Majles on certain issues, and Majles members have even begun an initiative for the dismissal of a number of ministers in Raisi’s government. The tension between the President and his rivals less than a year after his government was formed provides further evidence that the conservative faction is not monolithic, and that the restoration of political rule by the hardliners does not guarantee unity. The disagreements are likely to worsen if the President fails in his efforts to improve the economic situation, especially ahead of the parliamentary elections, scheduled for two years from now. Growing Disagreements between President Raisi and his Conservative Rivals

ISIS Khorasan

  • June 1, 2022. By Peter Mills, ISW. Islamic State-Khorasan Province’s overarching objective remains to undermine and ultimately replace the Taliban government. The group’s recent attacks are part of its effort to delegitimize the Taliban at home and obstruct its efforts to normalize its government internationally. These attacks on countries neighboring Afghanistan signal to international jihadists that Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP) is both willing and able to attack internationally. IS-KP is also attempting to attract local Uzbek and Tajik jihadists by signaling to them that it will support their efforts against the Uzbek and Tajik governments. Islamic State-Khorasan Province Expands Attacks beyond Afghanistan

Israel – Palestine

  • June 2, 2022. By Middle East Eye. Israeli troops killed a Palestinian man during a raid on a refugee camp in the occupied West Bank on Thursday, the third Palestinian to be killed by Israeli forces in the past 24 hours. West Bank: Third Palestinian killed by Israeli forces in past 24 hours
  • June 1, 2022. By Kobi Michael, Ori Wertman, INSS. The Jenin area has recently emerged as a breeding ground of terrorism and a relatively easy and free theater of action for Islamic Jihad, the largest and strongest active organization there. The Israeli defense establishment has marked this area as an extremely dangerous problem and has elected to focus its offensive effort there. In essence, however, this effort amounts to no more than extinguishing local fires. This activity makes it possible to thwart individual terrorist actions – the importance of which should not be discounted – but it can neither disrupt the terrorist campaign in Jenin nor deal a critical blow to the terrorist infrastructure in the area. The effects and possible strategic value of a far more extensive campaign throughout the Jenin area using much larger Israel Defense Forces against many more fronts in the area should be assessed. The strategic objective of such a campaign should be to destroy the terrorist infrastructure in the area and demonstrate deterrent power there and beyond. The Unavoidable Campaign to Destroy the Jenin Terrorist Hub

Lebanon

  • May 31, 2022. By David Daoud, Atlantic Council. There’s little to celebrate about the outcome of Lebanon’s parliamentary elections on May 15. While the results demonstrate that an active minority are angry, the low voter turnout—41 percent—in an election billed as “decisive” for Lebanon’s future reveals that the country’s citizens are largely apathetic or disillusioned about the prospects of meaningful change. Indeed, the surprise victories of “independent” or so-called opposition candidates, the gains of the Christian nationalist Lebanese Forces party, and Hezbollah’s loss of a parliamentary majority with its allies are unlikely to help reverse the country’s economic downturn. Lebanon just had an election. Its result? Curb the optimism.

NATO 

  • June 1, 2022. By Jacqueline Feldscher, Defense One. Even as a war rages in its own backyard, NATO will use its highly anticipated summit later this month to look beyond the concerns of the moment and address the threat posed by China for the first time in a major document, a top American official told reporters on Wednesday. NATO’s Next Strategic Concept Will Add China’s Threats, US Ambassador Says

Russia

  • June 1, 2022. By World Nuclear News. The first of two reactors aboard Russia’s new Ural icebreaker has been brought to criticality. It is part of a fleet that will enable Russia to open new sea routes and develop remote regions. First criticality at Ural icebreaker : New Nuclear

Russia – Arctic

  • June 1, 2022. By Sergey Sukhankin, The Jamestown Foundation. Two government documents—“On the development of the Arctic zone and ensuring national security until 2035” (Pravo.gov.ru, October 26, 2020) and “Energy Strategy 2035” (ES-2035) (Minenergo.gov.ru, accessed May 29, 2022)—outline Russia’s vision on its role, place and ambitions in the Arctic macro-region. Aside from other aspects, these documents argue that for Russia to preserve its dominance over the northern polar region, two strategic goals must be achieved. First is exploiting the macro-region’s economic potential, which is to be primarily accomplished through an intensification of exports of non-renewable energy resources and liquefied natural gas (LNG) in particular. Second is capitalizing on the local transportation potential of the region, first and foremost establishing the Northern Sea Route (NSR) maritime corridor (which follows Russia’s northern coast and links Europe with the Asia-Pacific) as an alternative to the Suez Canal. According to the Russian side, the implementation of both of these measures will assist Russia in its strategic reorientation toward the economically booming Indo-Pacific macro-region—the so-called “Pivot to Asia”—with China becoming Russia’s key trade and geopolitical partner. Russia’s Arctic Strategy Melting Under the Scorch of Sanctions (Part One)

Russia – Ukraine

  • June 2, 2022. By  and , Reuters. Russian forces were attempting to consolidate their hold on Ukraine’s industrial city of Sievierodonetsk on Thursday, edging closer to claiming a big prize in their offensive in the eastern Donbas region. Russians consolidate hold on Ukrainian city; U.S. to give Kyiv advanced rockets
  • June 1, 2022. By Seth G. Jones, CSIS. Russia has failed to achieve most of its objectives in Ukraine because of poor military planning, significant logistical problems, low combat readiness, and other deficiencies, which undermined Russian military effectiveness. These and other challenges—including Ukrainian military efforts and Western aid—severely impacted Russian air, ground, cyber, and maritime operations. Russia’s failures will force the Russian military to fundamentally rethink its training practices, organizational structure, culture, logistics, recruitment and retention policies, and planning efforts. Nevertheless, Russia is still attempting a de facto annexation of parts of eastern and southern Ukraine that it controls. Russia’s Ill-Fated Invasion of Ukraine: Lessons in Modern Warfare
  • June 1, 2022. By Anders Åslund, Atlantic Council. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine is also a war on global food security. In February 2022, Russia blockaded all of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, through which all its bulk exports were being shipped. The ports remain closed, with no opening in sight. David Beasley, the executive director of the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), recently warned, “When a country like Ukraine that grows enough food for 400 million people is out of the market, it creates market volatility, which we are now seeing.”. Russia’s war on global food security
  • June 1, 2022. By Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast has gotten the attention of Russian forces in the area, and the Russians are scrambling to secure the vital ground line of communication (GLOC) the Ukrainians have threatened. Ukrainian forces carried out a series of organized counterattacks targeting settlements on the eastern bank of the Ihulets River that are very close to a key highway supporting Russian forces further north. The Russians have responded by destroying the bridges the Ukrainians used in one of those counterattacks and other bridges across the river in an effort to hold their line against anticipated continued Ukrainian counter-offensive operations. Ukrainian forces are likely still close enough to the highway to disrupt its use as a main supply route, potentially undermining the Russians’ ability to hold against Ukrainian counter-offensives from the north. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 1

Somalia

  • June 1, 2022. By UN News. Accompanying Somalia’s newly-appointed drought envoy on his first field visit, the United Nations’ top humanitarian official for the Horn of Africa country warned on Tuesday of the devastating outlook for millions of affected Somalis, amidst heightened risks of famine. Somalia: ‘Dire and grim’ drought, impacting more than 7 million

South Boemia

  • June 1, 2022. By World Nuclear News.  A development of small modular reactors (SMRs) at the Czech Republic’s Temelín nuclear power plant would be known as the South Bohemia Nuclear Park, according to a memorandum to set up the park signed by the utility ČEZ, the South Bohemian government, and the UJV Rez research organisation. South Bohemia Nuclear Park founded : New Nuclear

South Korea

Syria

Taiwan 

  • June 2, 2022. By Reuters. China “firmly” opposes the launch of the U.S.-Taiwan Initiative on 21st Century Trade, the commerce ministry said on Thursday, adding that the Chinese government opposed any form of official contact between Taiwan and other countries. China says opposes U.S.-Taiwan trade initiative
  • June 1, 2022. By Michael E. O’Hanlon, Brookings. President Joe Biden has yet again stated that if China attacked Taiwan to reunify what Beijing sees as a renegade province with the mainland, the United States would come to Taiwan’s military defense. White House staff has again followed up these off-the-cuff presidential comments with a “clarification” that in fact, strategic ambiguity remains American policy. Somewhat oxymoronically, the United States seeks to be crystal clear about being intentionally unclear about what we would do (evocative of British policy just before World War I on whether London would come to Paris’s aid, should France be attacked). The goal is to avoid emboldening Taiwan to provoke China even as we try to deter China in the event it does feel provoked. Quite the balancing act. But CAN the United States defend Taiwan?

Tajikistan

  • June 1, 2022. By Edward Lemon, The Jamestown Foundation. The second half of May saw the worst violence in the Pamir Mountain region of Tajikistan since the end of the civil war in 1997. At least 40 people have been killed and over 200 arrested in the central government’s attempt to assert full control over this rugged eastern territory (Bomdod, May 24). The most recent cycle of violence began on May 16, when locals in Khorog gathered to call for several law enforcement officers to be brought to justice for allegedly killing local youth leader Gulbiddin Ziyobekov on November 25 (Radio Ozodi, May 16, 2022; CABAR.asia, December 7, 2021). His death sparked protests in November in Khorog resulting in 2 fatalities and 17 injuries (Asia Plus, November 25). Since then, a tense standoff prevailed between the government and the local Pamiri population over the incident. Law enforcement used tear gas and snipers to break up the May 16 protests and quickly cut off the region’s internet connection (Radio Ozodi, May 16). When the authorities decided to send additional military forces to quell the unrest on May 17, residents blocked the road from Dushanbe to Khorog in Rushan. In response, the government launched a “counter-terrorism” operation, killing dozens and arresting hundreds (see EDM, May 24). Tajikistan’s Crackdown in the Pamirs: Causes and Implications

UK

  • June 1, 2022. By World Nuclear News. EDF Energy has said it still intends to end electricity generation at the Hinkley Point B nuclear power plant in Somerset, England, no later than mid-July this year, despite media reports that the government may request it to keep the plant running for longer. EDF Energy confirms Hinkley Point B shutdown plan : Corporate

UK – Europe

  • June 1, 2022. By Sanjay Patnaik, Brookings. After several years of pandemic uncertainty, many undergraduate students in the United Kingdom (U.K.) are now making plans to study abroad for the 2022-23 academic year. Unlike in previous years, students no longer have access to the rich opportunities provided by the European Union’s (EU) pan-continental exchange program, Erasmus+. Reversing an earlier promise from Boris Johnson, the U.K.-EU trade agreement finalized in late 2020—the result of the U.K.’s departure from the EU, i.e., “Brexit”—did not include a provision for the U.K. to remain in the popular program. Instead, students that wish to receive funding for international experiences have had to make use of the Turing Scheme, a U.K. government funding program that was launched in 2021 as a substitute for Erasmus+. Why post-Brexit UK should rejoin the EU’s Erasmus+ exchange program

Ukraine

USA 

  • June 1, 2022. By Jamie Lutz, Caitlin Welsh, CSIS. Food insecurity among U.S. veterans and military families is a national security concern: it multiplies stress on active-duty personnel, diminishes well-being among service members and their children—who are more likely to serve in the military as adults—and may hinder recruitment for the armed services. As direct service providers and the U.S. government respond to the short-term needs of veterans and military families, this brief puts forward long-term solutions to food insecurity in the U.S. military and veteran communities. Solving Food Insecurity among U.S. Veterans and Military Families
  • June 1, 2022. By William B. English and Donald Kohn, Brookings. In the course of making monetary policy and issuing currency, the Federal Reserve accumulates a portfolio of Treasury and agency securities, which earn interest. Its liabilities consist primarily of currency outstanding, which of course pays no interest, deposits of the U.S. Treasury, which also pay no interest, and reserve deposits of banks and repo borrowing from money market funds and other lenders, both of which do pay interest. Normally, the interest the Fed earns on its securities greatly exceeds the interest it pays to banks and money funds, and the Fed meets its expenses from the surplus and remits the rest to the Treasury. What if the Federal Reserve books losses because of its quantitative easing?

USA – NATO

DEFENSE – MILITARY – SPACE

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