FOCUS
July 27, 2022. Bo Lidegaard, Project-Syndicate, The Strategist. Russia’s war in Ukraine and the disruption of Russian gas exports to Europe has triggered an energy crunch, with price spikes unlike anything seen since 1973. And the situation will get worse before it gets better. Russian natural-gas flows to Europe are likely to be further curtailed—or even shut off—before the northern winter, and sanctions on oil exports may soon start to bite into energy supplies, too. Europe’s energy choice
AROUND THE WORLD
Azerbaijan – Uzbekistan
- July 26, 2022. Rusif Huseynov, The Jamestown Foundation. On June 21, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev paid a two-day official visit to Uzbekistan, where he met with his counterpart, Uzbekistani President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. Almost 20 documents, including a declaration on deepening strategic partnership and expanding comprehensive cooperation, were signed by the two delegations during the visit (Uzdaily.uz, June 21). Aliyev’s Visit to Uzbekistan: Expanding Connectivity Between Caucasus and Central Asia
China
- July 27, 2022. Yu Sheng, East Asia Forum. China has made great efforts to meet increasing domestic food demand over the past four decades. From 1978–2021, China’s real agricultural output grew on average 5.4 per cent a year (over five times the population growth), with increased diversification towards high protein and high-value products. Yet a substantial gap remains between food demand and domestic supply — and is expected to increase. Can aquaculture meet China’s demand for food?
China – Indonesia
- July 27, 2022. Cao Siqi, Wan Hengyi and Zhang Changyue, Global Times. In a cordial and friendly atmosphere, Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks with Indonesian President Joko Widodo on Tuesday in Beijing, hailing a sound China-Indonesia relationship has positive, far-reaching regional and global impacts and stressing the strong commitment of the two sides to growing their bilateral ties as President Widodo is the first head of state China hosts after the Beijing Olympic Winter Games. China, Indonesia deepen ties, inject stability to region, world in international landscape full of uncertainties
Myanmar
- July 27, 2022. Juliette McIntyre and Adam Simpson, The Strategist. On Friday, the International Court of Justice announced that it had comprehensively rejected Myanmar’s objections to the continuation of the genocide case brought against it by the Republic of the Gambia over the treatment of Myanmar’s Rohingya ethnic minority. In a small but important victory for international justice, the case can now continue on to a final determination of Myanmar’s responsibility for genocide. International court rejects Myanmar’s bid to halt genocide case
Russia – Iran
- July 26, 2022. Paul Globe, The Jamestown Foundation. In the run-up to the June 2022 Caspian Summit in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, Moscow had expected that Tehran, animated by the same anti-Western attitudes as Russia, would cooperate closely in the opening of a north-south transportation route between Russia and the Indian Ocean. This plan would allow Russia to effectively circumvent Western sanctions. Yet, as continuing disagreements between Iran and the other Caspian littoral states were highlighted at the meeting, the Kremlin’s hopes for such an approach are a tad premature and may give way to new concerns about Iran’s projection of naval power in the Caspian and the risk that this could lead to new tensions in the Caspian, which the Russian government will find difficult, if not impossible, to resolve. Iran’s Position on Caspian Seriously Impedes Moscow’s Plans to End Sanctions
Russia – Ukraine
- July 27, 2022. DW. The dispute over millions of tons of grain stuck in Ukraine could finally be over after the country reached an agreement with Russia to resume exports. What does that mean for the world? Five facts on grain and the war in Ukraine
- July 27, 2022. DW. Ukraine’s navy said work had resumed at three ports following a UN-brokered grain export deal. Meanwhile, Ukraine struck a bridge over the Dnieper river on a significant Russian resupply route. DW rounds up the latest. Russia-Ukraine updates: Ukraine resumes operations at 3 ports for grain shipment
- July 26, 2022. Vadim Shtepa, The Jamestown Foundation. The Russian full-scale re-invasion against Ukraine, launched in February 2022, was initially explained as the desire for “denazification” of Kyiv. This meant a struggle against the national self-determination of Ukraine, which entered into an insurmountable conflict with Kremlin imperialism. However, in the protracted war, Moscow has started to rely on national movements. In June 2022, the formation of “volunteer national battalions” began in Russian regions, and the authorities intend to send them en masse to the Ukrainian front. Will the Kremlin Send New ‘Savage Divisions’ to Ukraine?
- July 26, 2022. Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, Katherine Lawlor, Layne Philipson, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. Russian-backed proxy leadership continues to enunciate deadlines for the capture of additional Ukrainian territory, likely to support ongoing preparations for referenda on the annexation of these territories to the Russian Federation.Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Deputy Minister of Information Daniil Bezsonov stated on July 25 that the DNR expects to capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast by the end of August. Various Russian and Western sources have previously reported that Russia intends to hold referenda in occupied areas by the first half of September, likely sometime around September 11, which is the unified voting day in the Russian Federation. Proxy leadership and Russian-backed occupation authorities are likely pushing for deadlines for military objectives to support condition setting for expedited annexation objectives, although Russian forces remain unlikely to occupy significant additional territory in Ukraine before the early autumn annexation timeline. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 26
Sri Lanka – India
- July 27, 2022. Murali Krishnan, DW. Economic instability has Indian investors and exporters worried about receiving payments. The Indian government is doing what it can to help keep essential goods moving. Sri Lanka′s economic crisis hits trade ties with India
Tunisia
- July 26, 2022. Karim Mezran, Emadeddin Badi, Alia Brahimi, Alessia Melcangi, and Alissa Pavia, Atlantic Council. On July 25, Tunisian voters approved the president’s proposed new constitution, to replace the 2014 one adopted by the Constitutional Assembly of Tunisia in the wake of the 2011 Arab Spring. While only 27.5 percent of the country cast a vote, exit polls indicated that more than 90 percent of those who cast a ballot did support the changes. The new constitution will allow President Kais Saied to rule by decree until new elections are held in December 2022. Additionally, it will allow the president to directly oversee the government, shifting from a parliamentary to a presidential system. A year after Saied’s decision to sack the prime minister and freeze parliament (which he later dissolved), critics argue that the country’s post-Arab Spring democratic transition is under assault. Those in favor of Saied’s moves claim he is ridding the country of inept and corrupt leaders who have been unable to govern the country and that he will be able to lift Tunisia out of hardship and poverty. We reached out to our experts for their thoughts on the vote and what it means for North Africa writ large. Experts react: Tunisia’s president cemented his power grab with a referendum vote. What does it mean for North Africa?
Turkey – Kurds
- July 27, 2022. Cathrin Schaer, Sinem Özdemir, DW. Turkey’s longstanding campaigns against Kurdish militants in Iraq and in Syria are under the spotlight after alleged Turkish strikes killed nine tourists in northern Iraq. It’s led to a new flaring of regional tensions. Turkey′s strategy in Kurdish-dominated areas of Iraq, Syria under scrutiny
USA
- July 26, 2022. Gabriel R. Sanchez, Keesha Middlemass, and Aila Rodriguez, Brookings. Democracy in the United States is in serious trouble. A review of some recent public opinion research shows just how much. Misinformation is eroding the public’s confidence in democracy
Vietnam
- July 27, 2022. Thư Nguyễn Hoàng Anh, The Interpreter. Illegal fishing activities conducted by Vietnamese vessels have spiked during the first six months of 2022, with most boats caught encroaching into the waters of Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia. Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) fishing has long been a conundrum for Vietnam. In October 2017, the country was issued with a “yellow card” by the European Commission (EC) to signal a judgement that Vietnam had made inadequate efforts to combat the practice. What Vietnam can learn from Thailand’s fight against illegal fishing
TOPICS
Climate Change & Sustainability
- July 26, 2022. Abidah B. Setyowati, Susan Shen, World Bank blogs. Landmark climate reports launched by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change this year make it clear that we urgently need a rapid transition to low-carbon development to tackle the climate crisis. For the first time, these reports focus on the people at the heart of transformative climate action and underscore the social aspect of climate mitigation and adaptation. Integrating social dimensions and inclusion is key to accelerate climate action in East Asia and Pacific
- July 26, 2022. Marco Letta, Pierluigi Montalbano, Adriana Paolantonio, Gero Carletto, World Bank blogs. Climate change has been recognized as a key driver of migration and one of the root causes of refugee movements. Its effects are shaping new mobility patterns within and across countries, yet the costs and benefits of these movements are still not fully understood. Leveraging household surveys to boost research on climate migration
- July 27, 2022. Sarah Mewes, Gloria Koepke, Social Europe. For decades, the European vehicle industry was a guarantor of prosperity and economic development. Driving a car became a postwar symbol of progress. But times are changing, with petrol prices reaching records amid Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and climate-change goals requiring a fundamental shift away from high carbon emissions towards an eco-friendly transport system. Vehicles and just transition—turning the wheel
Cybersecurity
- July 27, 2022. Elizabeth Garside, Elisabeth Mackay, Infosecurity. Consumer data is central to online organizations’ ability to personalize experiences and services to enhance customer value. UX Design is Key to Creating Privacy Controls that Unlock Value
- July 27, 2022. Jason Steer, Infosecurity. For months, Western leaders have warned about the risk of military conflict in Ukraine spilling over into the rest of the world. Their fears may not yet have been directly realized, but several governments in Latin America have certainly begun to feel the impact. Emboldened cybercrime groups may be redefining acceptable targets, which has implications for governments everywhere. How Ransomware Has Become a Geopolitical Risk for Governments
- July 27, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. The US government has increased its reward for information on North Korean state-linked hackers to $10m. US Doubles Reward for Info on North Korean Hackers
- July 27, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. The No More Ransom project celebrated its sixth birthday this week with a reminder of how far the initiative has come and the scale of its achievements over that time. No More Ransom Has Helped Over 1.5m Victims
- July 27, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. The average cost of a data breach globally now stands at $4.35m, up nearly 13% on 2020 figures and a new all-time record, according to IBM. Data Breach Costs Reach New Record High
- July 26, 2022. Danny Bradbury, Infosecurity. Banks received the lion’s share of phishing attacks during the first half of 2022, according to figures published by cybersecurity company Vade today. Phishers Targeted Financial Services Most During H1 2022
- July 26, 2022. Danny Bradbury, Infosecurity. Poor training is hindering companies’ ability to protect themselves from cybersecurity risks, according to a report from email security company Tessian. Poor Training and Communications Hindering Cybersecurity Efforts
Defense – Intelligence – Military – Security – Space
- July 27, 2022. Naval News. Thales Defense & Security, Inc. (TDSI) has acquired full ownership of Advanced Acoustic Concepts (AAC), their joint venture with Leonardo DRS. Thales acquires full ownership of Advanced Acoustic Concepts (AAC)
- July 27, 2022. Naval News. The French shipbuilder Socarenam starts the sea trials of the first POM (Patrouilleur d’Outre-Mer) Offshore Patrol Vessel (OPV), the “Auguste Benebig”, on 26 July 2022. Socarenam begins sea trials of the First POM OPV
- July 27, 2022. Theresa Hitchens, Breaking Defense. There is an aphorism among political pros that process often equals policy. If true, it goes some way toward explaining the inherent Defense Department difficulties in space acquisition reform, given not just the legal and regulatory complexities, but also the byzantine and often opaque Pentagon bureaucracy involved. Rocket science: How Space Force acquisition works, with many players and dual hats
- July 27, 2022. Colin Demarest, Defense News. A burgeoning U.S. Army effort to ensure command posts are suited for fights teeming with sensors and combatants using advanced technology could soon be ready for a demonstration. US Army sets timeline for demo of new, hard-to-detect mobile command post
- July 27, 2022. DW. Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu slammed Finland and Sweden for allowing “terror propaganda” as the two countries await Ankara’s permission to join NATO. Turkey says Sweden and Finland not fulfilling NATO deal
- July 27, 2022. Naval News. BAE Systems has signed a five-year contract to support its ARTISAN Radar on the Brazilian Navy’s flagship, the multipurpose aircraft carrier NAM Atlântico. Brazil’s NAM Atlantico to be fitted with Artisan Radar
- July 26, 2022. Theresa Hitchens, Breaking Defense. The Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) move to establish a new space division is less of a revolution than an evolution, building on current operations and force structure — with no plans to break out a separate space service mirroring the US Space Force. Canada’s new Space Division: Evolution not revolution
- July 26, 2022. Valerie Insinna, Breaking Defense. Secretary Frank Kendall said today that the Air Force should waste no time in resolving a question that could result in a major expansion to the capability of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter: Is the service prepared to fund a new, adaptive engine for the jet, or will it choose more budget-friendly upgrade for the existing F135 engine? Kendall: Air Force needs to make a decision on F-35 engine in FY24 and ‘get on with it’
- July 27, 2022. Bryant Harris, Defense News. When Ukrainian fighters in May surrendered Mauripol’s sprawling steel plant to Russian forces after a months-long siege, the consequences were widespread. Russia not only notched a victory over the 500 Ukrainians fighting to maintain control, but it also knocked out a plant central to Ukraine’s position as a powerhouse in global neon gas exports. Those exports are key to manufacturing the very weapons the United States is sending to Kyiv to defend against Moscow’s invasion. After years of inattention, Congress scrambles to save defense supply chain
- July 27, 2022. Megan Eckstein, Defense News. The chief of naval operations has updated his strategic vision for the U.S. Navy to tie it more directly to the Pentagon’s National Defense Strategy, in the hopes of making it more likely to be funded and implemented. Navy moves to align its strategy with National Defense Strategy priorities
- July 27, 2022. Tom Kington, Defense News. Italy has hiked defense spending again as it showers cash on the Tempest fighter program in 2022 and radically upgrades its forecast for its total spending on the sixth-generation program. Tempest program, Russian invasion drive growth in Italy’s defense budget
- July 26, 2022.
- July 26, 2022. Marcus Weisgerber, Defense One. Defense industry executives have largely attributed the supply-chain woes of recent years to the coronavirus pandemic. But more than a year after the widespread arrival of COVID vaccines, shortages of skilled workers are still delaying weapons deliveries and eating into firms’ profits. Lack of Workers Is Hurting Supply Chains More than COVID, Defense Execs Say
- July 26, 2022. Jacqueline Feldscher, Defense One. The America-first faction of the Republican party is at war with itself over how much the United States should be helping Ukraine in the lead-up to the November election. Biden Is Arming Ukraine To ‘Play For a Tie,’ Some America-First GOPers Say
- July 26, 2022. Jonathan Panikoff, Jesse Salazar, Defense One. After 9/11, the country moved swiftly to secure cockpits and improve airport security. Today, we must act with similar urgency to build up America’s ability to design and produce new microchips—starting by passing the CHIPS Act. Pass the CHIPS Act
- July 26, 2022. Mackenzie Eaglen, Defense One. Despite an annual budget over three-quarters of a trillion dollars, money is always tight at the Defense Department. And the U.S. military is being paced and passed in terms of innovation and raw size. Call it the paradox of scarcity in a defense budget of largesse. (I did.) How did we get here? And can we escape? The Pentagon Gets the Better Part of a Trillion Dollars a Year. Why Isn’t That Enough?
- July 27, 2022. Marcus Hellyer, The Strategist. The Labor government’s election platform contained a commitment to conduct a ‘defence force posture review’. Historically, Australia’s defence posture reviews have mainly considered where Australian Defence Force assets are based. Different stakeholders have inconsistent goals: the Department of Defence wants to consolidate in fewer, larger bases to save money; regional towns want to hang on to what they have; and boosters in the north and west push for more ADF assets to be at the ‘pointy end’ in—no prizes for guessing—the north and west. Australia’s force posture review is a much bigger deal than the name suggests
Digital & Tech
- July 26, 2022. Julian Jacobs, Brookings. Digitalization is rapidly changing U.S. labor market dynamics. An unequal embrace of digitalization may contribute to recession risk
Future of Work
- July 27, 2022. Rolf Schmucker, Social Europe. During the pandemic, working from home has experienced an unprecedented boom. According to many observers, the associated changes in work organisation and processes will frame the work of the future. ‘Hybrid’ working at different, self-chosen locations—in the office, at home, on the road—is set to become the ‘new normal’ of the working world. Blurring of boundaries in work’s ‘new normal’
Global Economy
- July 27, 2022. Arthur Sullivan, DW. The world has been gripped by multiple shocks, from a surge in populism and trade barriers, to a global pandemic and a war in Europe. Globalization appears to be in retreat. Will we see the dawning a new economic era. The globalization backlash: A new world economic order?
- July 26, 2022. William Reinsch, Grant Reynolds, CSIS. Both the U.S. government and the G7 are considering polices to simultaneously address high oil prices and inflation as well as Russia’s control over energy markets. However, the proposed U.S. crude oil export ban would do little reduce inflation, and instead could have the opposite effect of actually increasing U.S. gasoline prices. The effects of the G7 price cap, alternatively, would depend on a few key actors, namely Russia, China, and India. Ultimately, prices levels may eventually decrease not due to government intervention but rather because of growing fears of an economic downturn. Geopolitics of Oil and Inflation
- July 26, 2022. Brookings. On Wednesday, July 13, the Global Economy and Development program at the Brookings Institution convened a panel of experts to answer pressing questions on the state of the global economy. David Malpass, president of the World Bank Group, delivered introductory remarks on the deteriorating global growth outlook, touching on energy and food insecurity, capital misallocation, stagflation, and more. World Bank President David Malpass on the state of the global economy
Health & Digital
- July 26, 2022. Shania Kennedy, Health IT Analytics. Mayo Clinic and Mercy announced a 10-year partnership focused on using data science and deidentified patient outcomes to determine effective disease prevention and treatment. Mayo Clinic, Mercy Launch Data Science Collab to Transform Patient Care
Migration
- July 27, 2022. David McKenzie, World Bank blogs. Moving to a new city or country is costly, scary, and relatively few people do it. Only 3.5 percent of the global population lives in a different country from the one they were born in. Internal migration is harder to compare and aggregate, but UN data suggests approximately 763 million persons live within their own country but outside their region of birth – so in total, only around 1 in 7 of the World’s population have ever migrated even internally. This lack of movement matters a lot at both the personal and societal levels. It means most people’s incomes are determined by local labor market opportunities, and that the development process of reallocation of labor from less productive to more productive areas is limited. Migration and the multiverse
Rare Earths
- July 27, 2022. Nik Martin, DW. Turkey has announced the world’s second-largest deposit of critical metals needed to build electric cars and wind turbines. But is the grade good enough and can Ankara end China’s dominance? Doubts grow over Turkey′s huge discovery of rare earths
