CONNETTIVITA’ NEL PACIFICO. UNA QUESTIONE GEOSTRATEGICA

FOCUS

July 28, 2022. Melissa Conley Tyler and Alexandre Dayant, East Asia Forum. Investment in Pacific infrastructure has become an area of geopolitical competition. The landscape includes multilateral development banks, China’s Belt and Road Initiative, the Australian Infrastructure Financing Facility for the Pacific (AIFFP) and minilateral initiatives such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. In this crowded space, Australia should take an approach that judges proposed infrastructure investments by their impact on service delivery. The exception is in the physical infrastructure required to build Pacific digital connectivity. Changing the conversation on Pacific infrastructure

AROUND THE WORLD

Astana Peace Process – Syria

• July 27, 2022. Vali Kaleji, The Jamestown Foundation. Three days after US President Joe Biden’s trip to the Middle East, Tehran hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on July 19. This tripartite meeting was held within the framework of the seventh summit of the heads of states of the Astana Peace Process for Syria. The three parties announced that the next meeting will be held in Russia before the end of 2022. But what were the motivations of Turkey, Russia and Iran in attending the summit? And what are the summit’s consequences on the Syrian crisis? 7th Summit of the Astana Peace Process in Tehran: Implications for the Syrian Crisis

Belarus

• July 27, 2022. Grigory Ioffe, The Jamestown Foundation. Within the span of a couple of days (July 20–21), a number of major Belarusian commentators made suggestive public statements: President Alyaksandr Lukashenka gave an hour-long interview to Agence France-Presse; Svetlana Tikhanovskaya made a speech at the Berlin-based ceremony devoted to the 78^th anniversary of the assassination attempt on Adolf Hitler; Belarusian Popular Front Founder Zianon Pazniak was interviewed by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL); and, finally, two of the most influential and active opposition-minded analysts, Ryhor Astapenia and Artyom Shraibman, also shared their judgments with RFE/RL. Whose Judgments on Belarus Deserve Attention?

Germany

• July 28, 2022. DW. Inflation in Germany is likely to start dropping again over the rest of the year, according to a prestigious economic think tank. But researchers warn food prices may still rise. Inflation in Germany has peaked, IFO researchers say

Japan

• July 27, 2022. Kazuhiko Togo, East Asia Forum. The assassination of former prime minister Shinzo Abe on 8 July 2022 was a shock for Japan, but the longest-tenured head of government after World War II leaves behind a significant legacy. Carrying the torch of Abe’s legacy

Libya

• July 27, 2022. The Libya Observer. Russia has welcomed the initiative of the President of the Republic of Congo, Denis Sassou Nguesso, to organize a conference on Libyan national reconciliation soon. Russia welcomes the organization of a conference on Libyan reconciliation in Congo

• July 27, 2022. The Libya Observer. The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Najla Al-Manqoush, confirmed on Wednesday the government’s continuous work to hold parliamentary and presidential elections according to an agreed constitutional basis to achieve the demands of the Libyan people in imposing security and stability inside the country. Al-Manqoush confirms GNU continuous work to hold elections according to an agreed constitutional basis

• July 27, 2022. The Libya Observer. The British Ambassador to Libya, Caroline Hurndall, has commended lifting the force majeure on the oil ports, saying this will contribute to advancing the economic development wheel in Libya. UK welcomes lifting force majeure on oil ports in Libya

• July 27, 2022. The Libya Observer. The spokesman for the Government of National Unity (GNU), Mohammed Hammouda, reaffirmed his government’s readiness to invest in developing Libya’s oil sector, saying their efforts can lead to increasing oil production to 3 million barrels per day (bpd). GNU spokesman claims his government can increase Libya oil output to 3 million bpd

• July 27, 2022. The Libya Observer. Identical sources confirmed that a meeting was held Tuesday night by military and security leaders from Tripoli, Misrata, Al-Zawiya and Zintan was successful in reaching a preliminary agreement to demobilize forces from contact-line positions in west Tripoli and to avoid engaging in clashes, allowing security patrol personnel to position in the area. Meeting for Libyan military and security leaders puts an end to tensions in Tripoli

Libya-China

• July 27, 2022. The Libya Observer. The Deputy Foreign Minister for International Cooperation and Organizations, Omar Keti, received, in his office at the Foreign Ministry in Tripoli, Wang Zhimin, the Chargé d’affaires of China in Libya.  Libya, China review ways of boosting relations

Mali

• July 28, 2022. DW. The unstable Sahel state has long been a target of militants linked to al Qaeda and Islamic State who have repeatedly raided bases across the country. Mali: 15 soldiers, 3 civilians killed in Islamist attacks

Nicaragua

• July 28, 2022. DW. A court in Managua has sentenced Suazo to 10 years in prison on charges which include spreading fake news. But his NGO says the case is politically motivated. Nicaragua: Opposition leader Suazo jailed over alleged conspiracy, fake news

Pacific

• July 28, 2022. Greg Earl, The Interpreter. Pacific relations may have been an expected conflict zone at the last federal election but once in office the new Albanese government has doubled down on a big decision of its predecessor. Economic diplomacy: The Pacific reset needs real commercial investment

Russia – Ukraine

• July 27, 2022. Ihor Kabanenko, The Jamestown Foundation. On July 22, Ukrainian representatives signed the Initiative on Safe Transportation of Grain and Food Products from Ukrainian Ports with Turkey and the United Nations secretary-general in Istanbul (Pravda.com.ua, July 22). Ukraine’s agreement was concluded with Ankara and the UN, but not with Moscow, and provides for grain transportation from three Ukrainian Black Sea seaports—Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi—for 120 days with the possibility of extension. Russia, represented by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, signed a similar, but separate, agreement. The Kremlin signed its respective accord with Turkey and the UN before Kyiv signed its initiative. Export of Ukrainian Grain Through Seaports: Opportunities and Risks

• July 27, 2022. Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, Katherine Lawlor, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. Russian forces appear able to sustain only two significant offensive operations in Ukraine at this time, one attempting to seize Siversk and the other advancing on Bakhmut. These operations have focused on advances in the Siversk, Donetsk Oblast, direction from Verkhnokamianka and Bilohorivka and in the Bakhmut direction from the areas of Novoluhanske and the Vuhlehirska Thermal Power Plant since the end of the operational pause on July 16. Russian forces have committed enough resources to conduct near-daily ground assaults and to seize territory on these two axes but have been unable to sustain a similar offensive operational tempo or to make similar territorial gains elsewhere in Ukraine. The Russian offensive, therefore, remains likely to culminate before seizing any other major urban areas in Ukraine. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 27

Syria

• July 28, 2022. The Syrian Observer. On Tuesday, the Men of Dignity movement took control of a military security militia headquarters in Sweida governorate.  Revolution in Suweida: Local Factions Take Control of Military Security Headquarters

• July 28, 2022. The Syrian Observer. A mass grave, including more than ten bodies, was found on Wednesday in the city of Manbij, northern Syria. Mass Grave Containing More than 10 Bodies Found in Syria’s Manbij

• July 28, 2022. The Syrian Observer. Throughout the year, tent residents face the obstacle of securing annual rent for private agricultural land, on which informal camps for displaced persons are built in Idleb.  Renting of Camp Lands Exacerbates Crises of Displaced in Idleb

• July 28, 2022. The Syrian Observer. An army formation executed a night parachute jump covered by warplanes in cooperation with Russian instructors and within the framework of coordination and joint training between the Syrian and Russian friendly armies. Syrian Army Performs Parachuting in Cooperation with Russian Trainers

• July 28, 2022. The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Opposition Coalition (SOC) received a delegation from the U.S.-based Syrian Emergency Task Force and the M Night Shyamalan Foundation. The two sides discussed the latest field and political developments in Syria and the important role of the Syrian communities in the U.S. in supporting the Syrian cause and conveying the Syrian people’s voice to the public opinion. SOC Meets with Delegation from U.S.-based Syrian Emergency Task Force

• July 28, 2022. The Syrian Observer. Hassakeh Governor, Louay Sayouh, said that the practices of the U.S. and Turkish occupation reflect negatively and directly on the daily lives of the people of the governorate. They are weakening and hampering the efforts of vital sectors, especially the water sector. UNICEF Representative Visits Hassakeh

USA

• July 28, 2022. DW. The bill aims to spend $369 billion on energy and climate initiatives and $64 billion into state-funded healthcare. It also looks to raise minimum taxes for big companies. US Democrats finally agree on $430 billion anti-inflation bill

• July 27, 2022. Salil Mitra and Brian Sack, Brookings. The U.S. Treasury makes regular decisions about the issuance patterns of its debt securities with the objective of meeting the financing needs of the government at the lowest cost of servicing the debt over time. The overall level of outstanding debt is beyond the direct control of the Treasury, as it is determined by federal budget deficits resulting from legislative decisions and economic developments. However, the Treasury exercises full control over the structure of that debt through its decisions on the pattern of issuance across different types of securities and different maturity points. Projecting the structure of US Treasury debt

USA – Guyana

• July 27, 2022. CSIS. Please join the CSIS Americas Program for a discussion on strengthening the U.S.-Guyana bilateral relationship with Guyana’s President Mohamed Irfaan Ali. The United States and Guyana have a deep-rooted history of trade, public health initiatives, economic development, and collaboration to empower civil society, promote stability, and reinforce security. According to the International Monetary Fund, Guyana’s economy is the fastest growing in the world. Its economy is forecast to grow this year at roughly 47% with a projected GDP of $9.5 billion. Additionally, Guyana serves as a gateway to Caribbean trade development as it is home to the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) secretariat. As Guyana’s largest trading partner, the United States should work closely with Guyana to fortify democratic institutions, trade, and regional cooperation. A stronger relationship between the U.S. and Guyana is vital for the development of economies, trade policies, and humanitarian action. Strengthening the Guyana–U.S. Relationship

TOPICS

Climate Change & Sustainability

• July 27, 2022. Amar Bhattacharya, Homi Kharas, and John W. McArthur, Brookings. Despite the widespread economic strains caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and related crises, advanced economy governments have increasingly been emphasizing “green” economic growth strategies to tackle climate change while promoting both recovery and future prosperity. This is a welcome and long overdue shift. In 2020, for example, the European Union launched the European Green Deal; the U.K. government launched a Green Industrial Revolution; and the government of Japan launched a Green Growth Strategy. In the United States—the world’s largest economy—President Joe Biden took office in 2021 promising a Green New Deal. Across the OECD, these and other plans set large-scale ambitions to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions while promoting jobs, innovation, and long-term economic growth. Why developing country voices will shape the global climate agenda

Cybersecurity

• July 27, 2022. Danny Bradbury, Infosecurity. A database containing 5.4m Twitter users’ data is reportedly for sale on a popular criminal forum. Twitter is investigating the issue, which the seller said exploited a vulnerability in its systems reported in January. Cyber-Criminal Offers 5.4m Twitter Users’ Data

• July 27, 2022. Danny Bradbury, Infosecurity. A bill to help secure US government cryptographic systems against attack from quantum computers has passed the House and has now advanced to the Senate. The Quantum Computing Cybersecurity Preparedness Act introduces requirements for federal agencies to identify systems using cryptography and prioritize them for migration. Senators Introduce Quantum Encryption Preparedness Law

• July 27, 2022. Danny Bradbury, Infosecurity. Criminals are using malicious bots to steal information from victims via the popular Telegram and Discord messaging services, said a report this week. Some bots can be rented for as little as $25 a day. Criminals Use Malware as Messaging Bots to Steal Data

• July 27, 2022. Lauren C. Williams, Defense One. U.S. Cyber Command is looking to expand its acquisition shop and buy the tools it needs to keep pace with digital warfare. But it’ll have to contend with a tight labor market where technical talent is in high demand.  Faster Attacks Have Cyber Command Looking to Add All-Too-Scarce Experts

Defense – Intelligence – Military – Security – Space

• July 28, 2022. DW. North Korea’s supreme leader Kim Jong Un said “nuclear war deterrence is also fully ready to mobilize” in the event of a war. He accused the United States of “gangster-like” behavior. North Korea: Kim threatens to use nukes in potential war

• July 28, 2022. Yang Sheng and Liu Xuanzun, Global Times. US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s unconfirmed plan of a trip to the island of Taiwan keeps troubling the US as Pelosi, US President Joe Biden and Democrats are now facing pressure instead of “encouragements” from the Republicans on the matter, with Chinese experts warning that if the US eventually let the partisan struggle and internal politics hijack its strategic decision-making, it would definitely bring a new crisis in the Taiwan Straits. China reinforces bilateral ‘guardrail’ to US; Partisan struggle may ‘bring crisis to Taiwan Straits’

• July 27, 2022. Xavier Vavasseur, Naval News. South Korean shipbuilder Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI) today launched the lead ship of the KDX-III Batch-II AEGIS destroyer project for the Republic of Korea (ROK) Navy: ROKS Jeongjo the Great. HHI Launches South Korea’s First KDX III Batch II Destroyer

• July 27, 2022. Naval News. An MQ-9B SeaGuardian Unmanned Aircraft System from General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. (GA-ASI) is under contract with the U.S. Navy to support the Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) 2022 exercise. MQ-9B SeaGuardian Supports RIMPAC 2022

• July 27, 2022. Jaspreet Gill, Breaking Defense. The Senate today voted 64-33 to advance a bill meant to jumpstart the US semiconductor industry with an infusion of $52 billion in grants and incentives for domestic semiconductor manufacturing and research, and some $2 billion specifically for Defense Department microelectronics. Senate advances CHIPS-plus bill, with $2 billion designated for military microelectronics

• July 27, 2022. Valerie Insinna, Breaking Defense. Boeing announced today about $400 million in charges associated with fixed-price defense contracts that had gone over budget, most significantly a $147 million pre-tax charge on the Navy’s MQ-25 tanker drone. Boeing defense programs hit with $400M in cost overruns

• July 27, 2022. Justin Katz, Breaking Defense. The Navy has grounded an undisclosed number of planes following the discovery of a problem with a component involved in the pilot ejection process, a service spokeswoman told Breaking Defense. Navy grounded ‘some’ aircraft over ejection seat problems

• July 27, 2022. Andrew Eversden, Breaking Defense.  The US Army’s top acquisition official said today that he’s “encouraged” by the recent operational test of the service’s signature Integrated Visual Augmentation System despite some “challenges.”. Army ‘encouraged’ by IVAS test despite ‘challenges,’ FLRAA decision may come in October

• July 27, 2022. Jaspreet Gill, Breaking Defense.  Following complaints made earlier this month by the Army’s top acquisition official about the Pentagon’s disparate Joint All Domain Command and Control efforts, the Air Force’s principal cyber advisor today added her voice to the calls for a centralized JADC2 office. Air Force official: ‘Someone needs to push us where to go’ with JADC2

• July 27, 2022. Breaking Defense. The White House raised eyebrows earlier this month when a senior official claimed Russia may try to obtain “hundreds” of UAVs from its Middle Eastern ally Iran. In the op-ed below, The Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ John Hardie, Ryan Brobst and Behnam Ben Taleblu analyze what Iran has to offer, and how it could impact the war in Ukraine. Iranian drones could make Russia’s military more lethal in Ukraine

• July 27, 2022. Douglas A. Birkey, Defense News. America’s hypersonic enterprise appears to be crossing a key juncture this summer. After years of struggle, including numerous test failures, programs like the Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon and Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon Concept appear to be hitting their strides — including full-up test flights at hypersonic speed. The hypersonic race: A case for guarded optimism

• July 27, 2022. Stephen Losey, Defense News. Boeing reported lower sales and profit in its defense unit in the most recent quarter, as charges on several key programs dragged it down. Supply chain, inflation woes drag down Boeing’s defense profit

• July 27, 2022. Burak Ege Bekdil, Defense News. Turkish Aerospace Industries has announced new deals to export its helicopter gunships and trainer aircraft to two African countries. TAI inks helicopter, trainer aircraft deals with African nations

• July 27, 2022. Vivek Raghuvanshi, Defense News. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited has awarded a $100 million contract to American firm Honeywell for the supply and manufacture of 88 TPE331-12B engines for the HTT-40 trainer aircraft, the Indian state-run company announced Wednesday. Hindustan Aeronautics awards $100M engine contract to Honeywell

• July 27, 2022. Defense News. Russia’s newly appointed deputy prime minister has a challenge ahead of him: protecting and building the country’s defense-industrial base amid Western sanctions and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Meet Russia’s new arms industry boss — a fan of Stalin and business consolidation

• July 27, 2022. Caitlin M. Kenney, Defense One. The U.S. Navy’s planned fleet of 2045 will require annual real budget increases of 3 to 5 percent, according to the Navy’s top officer, who called that a “realistic” schedule for amassing the 500 hyperconnected manned and unmanned vessels that national security will require. Navy Fleet Plan Needs 3-5% Annual Budget Increases for the Next Two Decades

• July 28, 2022. Ron Huisken, The Strategist. China has reacted strongly to Australia’s intention to acquire a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines under the AUKUS agreement with the US and UK. Since the announcement in September, Beijing has taken a stance of lofty and profound opposition to this development, labelling it provocative, destabilising, betraying Australia’s slavish adherence to America’s strategic posture of containing China’s rise, weakening the barriers to the further proliferation of nuclear weapons in the Indo-Pacific and hinting that Australia likely intends to be among the first new nuclear-weapon states in the region. What China’s condemnation of AUKUS says about Beijing

• July 27, 2022. CSIS. As countries prepare for the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) Review Conference next month, increased competition between regional and global powers, the pace of technological development and the collapse of long-standing agreements present more challenges to arms control and global strategic order than ever before. In this increasing vacuum, the potential for misunderstanding and miscalculation grows. Please join us as the UK’s National Security Adviser, Sir Stephen Lovegrove, offers a UK perspective on the current climate and advocates a new set of principles for the future of arms control and resetting strategic stability for the new international order. The Future of Arms Control, Strategic Stability, and the Global Order

• July 27, 2022. Atlantic Council. Russia appeared to launch its standoff with the West to new heights this week by announcing that it will pull out of the International Space Station (ISS) by 2024 and build its own space lab. Russia’s pulling the plug on space cooperation. Should the world be worried?

Digital & Tech 

• July 27, 2022. John Villasenor, Brookings. Can a state that prohibits most or all abortions block access to online information provided by abortion rights advocates and clinics in states with more permissive abortion laws? After Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, in which the U.S. Supreme Court returned to states the power to regulate access to abortion, that question is no longer theoretical. Can a state block access to online information about abortion services?

Health & Digital 

• July 27, 2022. Shania Kennedy, Health IT Analytics. A new study published this month in npj Digital Medicine shows the positive impact of the multisite implementation of a workflow-integrated machine-learning (ML) system to predict short-term risk and optimize COVID-19 hospital admission decisions. ML Models Can Help Optimize COVID-19 Hospital Admission Decisions

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