INDO-PACIFICO. STRATEGIE DI CAVI SOTTOMARINI

FOCUS

August 2, 2022. Anthony Bergin and Samuel Bashfield, The Strategist. In January, the UK’s defence chief, Tony Radakin, warned that Russian submarine and underwater activities were directly threatening subsea cable systems. There’s speculation that Russia could cut cables if it further escalates the war in Ukraine. Australia must do more to secure the cables that connect the Indo-Pacific

AROUND THE WORLD

Africa

• August 1, 2022. Landry Signé, Brookings. The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is a preferential trade program that gives countries in sub-Saharan Africa preferential access to U.S. markets, allowing them to export products tariff-free. African Growth and Opportunity Act: Program usage, trends, and sectoral highlights

Arab Countries

• August 2, 2022. Amin Saikal, The Strategist. In a highly polarised world, authoritarianism thrives in the Middle East. According to a credible survey, a majority of citizens across the Arab world are losing faith in democracy as a system of governance to deliver economic stability. It startlingly indicates a reversal of what the popular uprisings of the so-called Arab Spring demanded more than a decade ago. This will be music to the ears of autocratic rulers but a source of profound dismay to democracy promoters around the world. New survey reveals extent of Arab countries’ loss of faith in democracy

ASEAN – Myanmar

• August 2, 2022. Elaine Pearson, The Interpreter. On my first trip to Myanmar for Human Rights Watch in 2012, I met the activist and writer Kyaw Min Yu (known as Ko Jimmy), who had recently been released from prison. It was a time of hope for Myanmar – the country was starting its experiment of “managed democracy” and hundreds of political prisoners had been released. ASEAN governments need to act on Myanmar

Bosnia Herzegovina 

• August 1, 2022. Baroness Helić, RUSI. In my first two years as senior adviser to the foreign secretary, 2010 and 2011, I sat through dozens of meetings with Croatian government officials, led by their then foreign minister, Gordan Jandroković, as they prepared to join the EU. Again and again, I heard promises to be a good friend and neighbour: to their new European partners, and to the Western Balkans states – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia – still hoping one day to follow them into the EU. Croatian officials promised to share knowledge and expertise and to promote high standards and democracy throughout the region. I supported them enthusiastically. I saw a democratic Croatia, a member of the EU and NATO, as a stabilising factor in the Balkans. Electoral Reform Proposals in Bosnia and Herzegovina Will Cement Ethnic Divisions

China

• August 2, 2022. Francesco Pastore, Jie Chen, East Asia Forum. Deciding whether to pursue academic or vocational education is not easy. Education costs time and money, and is expected to deliver higher economic returns than the price paid to acquire it. This challenge is exacerbated by global uncertainty, job market mismatch and overeducation. In China, many students choose to go to a vocational school because of their low academic performance or their rural-to-urban migration status. China’s vocational education woes

Europe

• August 2, 2022. Gautam Chikermane, ORF. On Autobahn 2, Hanover is less than three hours away from Berlin. But even as Berlin engages in complex energy geoeconomics, Hanover is one step ahead. To reduce the city’s energy bill by 15 percent before the winter sets in, the city is taking measures today that should attune its 110,000 residents to be ready by then. Energy, security, and Europe’s politics of discomfort

Kosovo – Serbia

• August 1, 2022.  Petrit Selimi, Atlantic Council. In recent weeks, my country has promoted itself as a culturally vibrant destination for curious visitors. But on Sunday, Kosovo landed in global headlines for a much more unfortunate reason: A border flare-up between local Serbs and Kosovars in the north appeared to risk escalating into an open conflict. Former Kosovo foreign minister: How to stop Serbia spat from spiraling out of control

Russia – Ukraine

• August 1, 2022. Nataliya Butyrska, ORF. The war in Ukraine is not going according to the scenario Russia planned before the invasion. The Kremlin underestimated the ability of the Ukrainian military, the will of Ukrainians to fight for their freedom, and the solidarity of the transatlantic community. Since the start of the war at all negotiations, Ukraine’s primary demand is the withdrawal of Russian troops, followed by a discussion of the mechanism for the return of Donbas and Crimea (occupied in 2014). The main goal of the Ukrainian government was and remains the restoration of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The Russia-Ukraine conflict: A war of attrition

• August 1, 2022. Brig Vinod Anand, VIF. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has now in its sixth month and there appears to be a great deal of uncertainty as to when will it end. There is also a view that war has entered a dangerous phase with the conflict becoming a war of attrition. In fact it is a war between NATO and Russia with Ukraine becoming only a proxy. The narrative or rhetoric that is emerging from the West and the US is largely directed against President Putin and strategic defeat of Russia; Americans are especially obsessed with Putin. Of course there is an information war/campaign going on wherein stories of Putin’s illness or Russia’s weakness etc are being spread but what is the extent of credibility is of such stories is not known in fact, they seem unconvincing. However, overall aim of the US/NATO is to push Russia back to its pre-2014 borders. But is that a realistic aim to be achieved? Russia-Ukraine Conflict and International Developments: An Indian Perspective

• August 1, 2022. Yuri Lapaiev, The Jamestown Foundation. On July 20, Sergey Lavrov, minister of foreign affairs for the Russian Federation, declared that Moscow had new objectives in Ukraine, as it now wants to expand its gains beyond the borders of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” by capturing Kherson, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Lavrov underlined Western military equipment transfer and the alleged need to protect the occupied territories from long-range weapons as main reasons for this shift (TSN, June 20). Arm Ukraine Now: Game Changers in Russo-Ukrainian War
• August 1, 2022. Pavel K. Baev, The Jamestown Foundation. The tide of the Ukraine war has subtly shifted as the Russian offensive has exhausted itself and the Ukrainian pushback has started to gain momentum. In retrospect, the pitched battle for Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk in late June and early July 2022 could perhaps be recognized as the high-water mark for Russia’s violent intervention aimed at exterminating Ukraine as an independent state. Moscow had to concentrate its best fighting forces and the bulk of its big guns in order to capture the last bit of Luhansk region, and re-directing these depleted capabilities toward a new attack in Donetsk region has proven to be almost too ambitious thus far. Artillery barrages are hitting Bakhmut and Kramatorsk regularly and indiscriminately, but even the deployment of Wagner mercenaries cannot adequately compensate for the shortage of ground troops (Realist, July 26). The battle for Donbas, which became the central theater of the war after the battle for Kyiv was lost by overstretched Russian forces in early April, is deadlocked, and the new focal point is now Kherson. Battle for Kherson and Russia’s Global Downsizing
• August 1, 2022. Steven Pifer, Brookings. With an ugly war of attrition in Ukraine threatening to drag on for months, some fear possible escalation and suggest Washington should start talking to Moscow about a cease-fire and ending the war, or offer proposals to foster diplomatic opportunities. Russia, Ukraine, and the decision to negotiate
• August 1, 2022. Kateryna Stepanenko, Layne Philipson, Katherine Lawlor, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. Russian forces are reportedly continuing to transfer troops from northern Donetsk Oblast to support defensive positions in southern Ukraine and may be halting the Slovyansk campaign for the time being.The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence (GUR) Representative Vadym Skibitsky stated that Russian forces withdrew airborne tactical groups from Donetsk Oblast and redeployed the units to occupied Kherson Oblast territories two weeks ago. Skibitsky added that Russian forces are also redeploying elements of the Eastern Military District (EMD) operating in Slovyansk to southern Ukraine and are transferring a large number of troops to Crimea to prepare to defend occupied Kherson and/or Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counteroffensives. The UK Defense Ministry also noted that Russian forces likely identified Zaporizhia Oblast as a vulnerable front in need of reinforcement, and the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are regrouping in Zaporizhia Oblast. Social media footage has shown Russian forces moving equipment and personnel to both Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblasts in recent weeks. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 1

USA

• August 1, 2022. Olivier Blanchard, Alex Domash and Lawrence H. Summers, PIIE. In a lengthy FEDS Note, “What does the Beveridge curve tell us about the likelihood of a soft landing?,” published July 29, Governor Chris Waller and Fed associate director Andrew Figura challenge the conclusions of our PIIE Policy Brief, “Bad news for the Fed from the Beveridge space.” We looked at their note with interest, in the hope of being educated on a more optimistic view of the American economy’s soft landing prospect. Unfortunately, our judgment is that it contains misleading conclusions, errors, and factual mistakes. The Fed is wrong: Lower inflation is unlikely without raising unemployment

• August 1, 2022. William H. Frey, Brookings. Previous analyses of Census Bureau estimates make plain that the nation’s population growth has ground down to a historic low: only 0.1% growth between July 2020 and July 2021. During this prime year of the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of deaths rose sharply, births declined, and immigration reached its lowest levels in decades. At the same time, population movement within the U.S. led to sharp declines in many of its largest metro areas—particularly in these areas’ biggest cities. White and youth population losses contributed most to the nation’s growth slowdown, new census data reveals

TOPICS

Climate Change & Sustainability

• August 2, 2022. André Rodrigues De Aquino, World Bank blogs. Indonesia’s Group of 20 presidency – under the banner of “Recover Together, Recover Stronger” — encourages member countries to achieve green economic recovery, and showcases Indonesia’s own vision to achieve green and low-emissions economic development. Indonesia’s green belt – Protecting and restoring the country’s mangroves
• August 1, 2022. Rodrigo Castillo and Caitlin Purdy, Brookings. The world faces major challenges in responsibly sourcing large quantities of minerals that are critical for the transition to low-carbon energy sources. Consumption of these critical minerals—most notably nickel, copper, lithium, and cobalt—is projected to rise, largely driven by their use in the renewable energy sector. Demand is expected to quadruple by 2040 under the International Energy Agency’s Sustainable Development Scenario, in which global action would limit the global temperature rise to well below 2°C, and it is projected to rise by six times under a net-zero scenario. Many governments, including the United States, European Union members, and China, seem to share the goal of increasing the supply and rate of production of the raw materials needed for the energy transition to address the challenge of global climate change. However, meeting this demand will be difficult—and producing these minerals in strict adherence to robust environmental, social, and governance criteria will be even more so. China’s role in supplying critical minerals for the global energy transition: What could the future hold?  

Cybersecurity

• August 2, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. The US authorities have indicted a Russian national for allegedly orchestrating a Kremlin-backed “malign influence campaign” designed to sow discord and interfere in elections. US Indicts Russian Accused of Promoting California’s Secession

• August 2, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. Security researchers have discovered over 3200 mobile apps which are leaking Twitter API keys, potentially enabling threat actors to perform account takeovers. Thousands of Apps Leaking Twitter API Keys

• August 2, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. The UK’s top 10 universities and most of the leading educational institutions in the US and Australia are failing to protect their staff and students from email-borne threats, according to Proofpoint. UK’s Top 10 Universities Failing on DMARC

• August 1, 2022. Andrew Dwyer, Ciaran Martin, Lawfare. On May 19, Suella Braverman, the U.K.’s attorney general, delivered a highly anticipated speech to Chatham House, building on the U.K.’s position on the applicability of international law to offensive cyber operations conducted during peacetime. Such public statements have become essential in the U.K.’s ongoing efforts to develop its credentials as a “responsible, democratic cyber power” that includes an overt offensive cyber capability in its newly avowed National Cyber Force (NCF). For the U.K. to be seen as credible in its effort to responsibly deploy offensive cyber capabilities and uphold accountability in its pursuit of cyber power, articulating a clear legal position is crucial. This is also integral to the U.K.’s efforts to challenge “systemic competitors” in cyberspace, including China and Russia, while participating in a broader coalition of like-minded states based on a democratic, rules-based order, such as through President Biden’s Summit for Democracy.  A Frontier Without Direction? The U.K.’s Latest Position on Responsible Cyber Power
• August 1, 2022. Alessandro Mascellino, Infosecurity. Security experts from online platform Zscaler have published an analysis of the new variant of the known Raccoon Stealer malware. Credential Stealer Malware Raccoon Updated to Obtain Passwords More Efficiently
• August 1, 2022. Alessandro Mascellino, Infosecurity. Cybersecurity firm Volexity spotted new activity from a threat actor (TA) allegedly associated with North Korea and deploying malicious extensions on Chromium-based web browsers. North Korean Hackers Use Browser Extension to Spy on Gmail and AOL Accounts
• August 1, 2022. Alessandro Mascellino, Infosecurity. The Austrian government said on Friday it was investigating a company based within the nation’s territory for allegedly developing spyware targeting law firms, banks, and consultancies across at least three countries. Austrian Investigation Reveals Spyware Targeting Law Firms, Finance Institutions

Defense – Intelligence – Military – Security – Space

• August 1, 2022. David Isaac, Jewish News Syndicate. Despite repeated refrains by Biden administration officials that negotiations to revive the Iran nuclear deal cannot go on indefinitely, which the U.S. president himself reiterated during the Israel leg of his Middle East trip in mid-July, Washington has refused to set a deadline for ending talks even though they appear to be on life support and are possibly unsalvagable given Tehran’s recent claims that it could easily build a bomb. As Iranian nuclear clock ticks down, Biden administration refuses to set deadline for talks

• August 1, 2022. Micaela Burrow, Daily Caller. President Biden touted several accomplishments on security and conflict in the Middle East, including working on Trump-era normalization between Israel and Arab states and building an integrated regional defense network. Here’s How Biden’s Attempts To Resurrect The Iran Deal Is Sabotaging His Middle East Agenda

• August 1, 2022. Bull Roggio, FDD. Al Qaeda emir Ayman Zawahiri was confirmed killed in a U.S. drone strike in Kabul on Sunday in the first air strike conducted in Afghanistan since U.S. forces completely withdrew from country last year. Zawahiri’s death came less than two weeks after a United Nations report confirmed the Al Qaeda leader to be alive, “communicating freely,” and consulting with the Taliban. U.S. kills Al Qaeda emir Ayman al Zawahiri in drone strike

• August 2, 2022. Sidharth Kaushal and Kevin Rowlands, RUSI. The sinking of the Russian Slava-class cruiser Moskva in April this year by a Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship cruise missile may well have been a watershed moment. This is not because it illustrated the risks posed to warships by anti-access capabilities – something already well understood and accounted for in naval circles – but rather because it signposted the potential for smaller states to assure their own maritime sovereignty with little or limited support from larger partners. This, of course, is not just a matter of importance to Ukraine and Russia – it is increasingly a factor in the strategic competition underway in the Indo-Pacific and elsewhere. Assured Sovereignty: A Concept for Naval Partnership and Persistent Engagement

• August 2, 2022. Kabir Taneja, ORF. United States (US) President Joe Biden on 1 August announced that American forces had killed Al Qaeda Chief Ayman al-Zawahiri in a drone strike in Kabul, Afghanistan. Zawahiri, a close confidant of Osama Bin Laden since the 1990s and a co-planner of the 9/11 terror attacks, was reportedly living in an upscale neighbourhood in a house owned by the Haqqani Network. The area where the targeted compound is situated was less than two kilometres from India’s embassy where a ‘technical team’ is now stationed. Death of Ayman Al Zawahiri and the end of Al Qaeda ‘legacy’

• August 2, 2022. Varuna Shankar, VIF. The emergence of the Indo-Pacific as a new geostrategic space represents the new strategic reality of the 21st century. It is a new domain in India’s foreign policy engagement. India’s role is defined by its geography, interest and potential role in the region against the backdrop of a rapidly evolving geostrategic environment. In 2017, the Trump administration referred to Indo-Pacific as a new theatre of competition. AUKUS, India and the Strategic Dynamics in the Indo-Pacific Region

• August 1, 2022. Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM (Retd), VIF. Military-Civil Fusion (MCF) is an aggressive national strategy of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The CCP pursues its MCF Development Strategy to fuse its security, economic and social development strategies to build an integrated national strategic system and capabilities. The Party’s leaders see MCF as a vital element of their strategy for China to become a “great modern socialist country” which includes developing a “world-class” most technologically advanced military and becoming a world leader in science and technology (S&T). To achieve this, MCF will allow the seamless flow of knowledge, technology, resources, materials and talent back and forth between the military, defence industrial sectors and academia. Its objectives are to develop and acquire advanced dual-use technology for military purposes and deepen reform of the national defense science and technology industries to strengthen all of the PRC’s instruments of national power. The CCP is executing this strategy through its own research and development efforts and acquiring the world’s cutting-edge technologies, including theft. Military Civil Fusion in China

• August 2, 2022. Peter Ong. Naval News. The U.S. Navy’s Chief of Naval Operations’ (CNO) Navigation Plan (NAVPLAN) 2022 calls for 373 manned ships and 150 unmanned ships for a total of 523 (estimated) ships by 2045. The NAVPLAN breaks down the classification types and roles of these U.S. Navy vessels into their desired numbers and allotments. U.S. Navy’s new NAVPLAN Calls for 150 Unmanned Ships by 2045

• August 2, 2022. Adam Lockyer, The Interpreter. Speculation continues to mount that Nancy Pelosi will visit Taiwan during her trip to Asia this week. The schedule of the US Speaker of the House of Representatives, who arrived in Singapore on Monday, includes visits to some of America’s closest allies and security partners in the region, including Malaysia, South Korea and Japan. Will Pelosi’s trip trigger the next Taiwan crisis?

• August 2, 2022. Syed Fazl-e-Haider, The Interpreter. Killing of al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri in a US drone attack inside Taliban-ruled Afghanistan at the weekend has been billed as a major win by the United States against extremism. US President Joe Biden, who gave the final approval to launch the strike against Zawahri, declared “justice has been delivered, and this terrorist leader is no more” in remarks on Monday (Washington time). Killing the al-Qaeda chief leaves endless questions

• August 2, 2022. Samantha Hoffman, Yvonne Lau and Alex Bristow, The Strategist. Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the US House of Representatives, is leading a congressional delegation on a tour of the Indo-Pacific. The world is waiting to see whether she will visit Taiwan, with some reports suggesting she may do so as early as tonight. In protocol terms, such a visit would be the most senior visit since then-speaker Newt Gingrich visited the island in 1997. Three of ASPI’s China experts, Samantha Hoffman, Yvonne Lau and Alex Bristow, analyse the players, stakes and potential consequences of such a visit. Pelosi and Taiwan: the players, the stakes and the consequences

• August 1, 2022. John McLaughlin, Lawfare. President Biden is right this evening to emphasize the importance of delivering justice to Ayman al-Zawahiri. It is clear that this was the result of months of patient intelligence work and the ability to act on that with extraordinary precision. Reflections on the Death of Ayman al-Zawahiri
• August 1, 2022. Colin Clark and James Kitfield, Breaking Defense. There’s been much gnashing of teeth about possible consequences from China over a long-discussed visit by US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan. With the visit now reportedly set for Tuesday evening local time, all eyes are turned to Beijing and what President Xi Jinping may do in response. As Pelosi arrives in Taiwan, the big question is if China’s ‘fire’ rhetoric is just hot air
• August 1, 2022. Justin Katz, Breaking Defense. The Navy has for the first time cleared a major acquisition milestone on an unmanned surface vessel (USV), giving it the formal green light to begin operating in the fleet. Navy gives initial green light for first unmanned surface vehicle to join the fleet
• August 1, 2022. Theresa Hitchens, Breaking Defense. The Space Force plans to launch the final satellite in its Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS) missile warning constellation on Aug. 4, putting a bow on the long running but often troubled program. Space Force plans launch this week for final SBIRS missile warning sat
• August 1, 2022. Justin Katz, Breaking Defense. The Navy is preparing a high-speed transport vessel to become the first “fully operational US naval ship” to be capable of autonomous travel in a commercial sea lane, a major advancement from the relatively smaller drones the service has previously transited autonomously. Navy testing autonomous transit for high speed, cargo ship
• August 1, 2022. Breaking Defense. When it comes to exotic threats to the globe, there is a tendency to totally dismiss events that are highly unlikely or simply too troubling to consider. But in the op-ed below, former lawmakers Brad Carson and Mike Rogers argue that’s a fallacy that could critically cost the US should America fail to plan, now, for the unthinkable. Ignoring global catastrophic risk threatens American national security
• August 2, 2022. Stephen Losey, Defense News. U.S. Special Operations Command on Monday announced it has selected the AT-802U Sky Warden, made by L3Harris Technologies and Air Tractor, for its Armed Overwatch program. US Special Operations Command chooses L3Harris’ Sky Warden for Armed Overwatch effort
• August 1, 2022. Megan Eckstein, Defense News. The testing of four unmanned surface vessels at the Rim of the Pacific 2022 exercise will help the U.S. Navy kick off a program of record for a large USV in 2025 and help determine if there’s a need for a medium USV in the future hybrid manned-unmanned fleet, program officials said. RIMPAC lessons will inform Navy’s pursuit of a program-of-record unmanned ship in 2025
• August 1, 2022. Joe Gould and Bryant Harris, Defense News. The Biden administration will send $550 million in new lethal aid for Ukraine, including ammunition for the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System and 155mm artillery, as U.S. lawmakers and Ukrainian officials push for more. Biden to send Ukraine ammo for HIMARS as Kyiv, Congress push for more
• August 1, 2022. Zamone Perez, Defense News. Months into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, experts say the conflict is providing new lessons across the land, air and sea domains, potentially shaping future strategies for the U.S. military. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine offers lessons on land, at sea and by air
• August 1, 2022. Courtney Albon, Defense News. Senate lawmakers want to boost the Space Force’s budget by more than $2 billion to support missile warning satellite development, responsive launch capabilities and improved testing and training infrastructure. Senators seek $2 billion Space Force budget boost for missile defense, responsive launch
• August 1, 2022. Joe Gould, Defense News.  Amid pressure from U.S. lawmakers, the White House is weighing a September rollout for its long-delayed National Security Strategy, now being rewritten to emphasize Russia alongside China following the country’s invasion of Ukraine, Defense News has learned. White House aims to release overdue security strategies within weeks
• August 1, 2022. Jen Judson, Defense News. The Missile Defense Agency awarded Northrop Grumman a contract potentially worth more than $3 billion to integrate and manage weapon systems within the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system designed to defend the U.S. homeland from intercontinental ballistic missiles from North Korea and Iran. Northrop wins $3 billion contract to manage US homeland missile defense systems
• August 1, 2022. Jacqueline Feldscher, Defense One. Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri was killed by a U.S. drone strike in Afghanistan, President Joe Biden said Monday. Al Qaeda Leader Killed In US Drone Strike, Biden Says
• August 1, 2022. Marcus Weisgerber, Defense One. U.S. Special Operations Command has chosen L3Harris Technologies to supply up to 75 attack planes based on a cropduster aircraft in a deal that could be worth $3 billion. SOCOM Orders Cropduster Attack Planes from L3Harris Technologies
• August 1, 2022. Lauren C. Williams, Defense One. The Coast Guard is working to get better internet access to its ships, both to streamline operational communications and to shore up sagging recruitment efforts, its commandant told lawmakers last week. Coast Guard Wants Better Internet on Its Ships, and More Recruits
• August 1, 2022. Tara Copp, Jacqueline Feldscher, Defense One. The U.S. will send Ukraine thousands more 155mm howitzer shells and HIMARS rockets in a new package of military aid, the White House announced Monday. The $550 million package, which includes 75,000 155mm rounds, will bring the total amount of military aid the Biden administration has provided Ukraine to $8.8 billion.  U.S. Announces Another $550M In Ukraine Military Aid
• August 1, 2022. John C. K. Daly, The Jamestown Foundation. Since its seizure of power in August 2021, the Taliban has repeatedly asserted that it accomplished something the Ashraf Ghani administration could never do: provide nationwide security and eliminate regional transnational terror threats, the latter a topic of profound interest to Afghanistan’s neighbors, including China, Pakistan, Iran and the post-Soviet Central Asian states. From April to July 2022, Afghanistan-based militants fired rockets into both Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. While the governments involved initially downplayed the incidents, they highlighted the fact that the Taliban is currently unable or unwilling to address its neighbors’ security concerns, despite its repeated and bland assurances to the contrary. Rocket Attacks on Tajikistan and Uzbekistan Undermine Taliban Security Claims
• August 1, 2022. Jeanne Shaheen and Thom Tillis, Atlantic Council. In the more than one hundred days since Russia violated Ukraine’s sovereignty and launched an unprovoked, premeditated invasion, the world has witnessed a courageous display of defiance from the Ukrainian people. Their determination to defend their citizens, territorial integrity, and democratic values has rallied the international community to Ukraine’s side. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ambitions, and his decision to further invade the country, are not just an attack against Ukraine but a broader assault on democracies worldwide. An urgent message to our fellow senators: Support Finland and Sweden’s swift accession into NATO
• August 1, 2022. Atlantic Council. With an early Sunday morning drone strike in downtown Kabul, the United States killed Ayman al-Zawahiri, one of the masterminds of the 9/11 attacks and the leader of the al-Qaeda terrorist network since the 2011 death of Osama bin Laden. “No matter how long it takes, no matter where you hide, if you are a threat to our people, the United States will find you and take you out,” said US President Joe Biden, announcing the operation at the White House on Monday night. Experts react: Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri is dead. What’s next for US counterterrorism?

Digital & Tech

• August 2, 2022. Meenakshi Sinha, ORF. After two long years of deliberations and consultations, the Joint Parliamentary Committee on Personal Data Protection Bill 2019 submitted and tabled its report in the 17^th Lok Sabha, in December 2021. While the provisions of the report continue to be debated, the submission of the report is a step closer to enacting the first comprehensive data protection law in India. Before the 2019 Bill, personal data protection in India was primarily governed by the Information Technology Act, 2000, which mostly deals with cybercrime and e-commerce. Given that the IT Act, 2000, which was last amended in 2008, has largely been sectoral in its application, the enactment of the PDP Bill 2019 will be a landmark event in India’s digital economy space. Leveraging data privacy by design

• August 1, 2022. Hosuk Lee-Makiyama, Robin Baker, East Asia Forum. Sanctions and embargoes are precarious policy tools that can lead to inadvertent consequences without careful targeting, planning and coordination. In the absence of focussed application, Washington’s attempts to break China’s 5G dominance may have helped Beijing to strengthen its grip on the sector. Meanwhile, US government agencies are promoting alternative technologies that have opened a back door for sanctioned entities to enter the US market. The paradox of Washington’s 5G sanctions

Global Economy

• August 1, 2022. John Baffes, Kaltrina Temaj, World Bank blogs. The World Bank’s Beverage Price Index rose by more than 8% in the first half of 2022 compared to the previous six-month period, reflecting mostly strength in Arabica coffee prices. The index is expected to average more than 10% higher in 2022 compared to last year and then ease in 2024. The price outlook could change if there are new pandemic-related lockdowns or a weather-induced deterioration in coffee supplies. Beverage commodity markets: Stable subjected to weather volatility

Global Governance

• August 1, 2022. Addisu Lashitew, Sorin Krammer, and Jonathan Doh, Brookings. Rising inequality is one of the most pressing societal challenges of our time. According to data from the World Inequality Database, the past two decades saw an increase in the overall income share of the richest 10 percent of the population in all but two of the world’s 10 largest economies (the exceptions are France and the United Kingdom). In the world’s largest economies, the average income share of the richest 10 percent of the population increased from 37.5 percent in 2001 to 41.3 percent in 2021. This is often attributed to rapid technological change and competition from international trade, although the magnitude of change in inequality, as well as its underlying explanations, are potentially different between advanced and emerging economies. Is the risk of crime against businesses greater in more unequal countries?