LA SICUREZZA UMANA NELL’ARTICO

FOCUS

• (Arctic) Chiara Cervasio and Eva-Nour Repussard, BASIC. This report addresses existing and emerging threats to human security in the Arctic and investigates the utility of different risk reduction measures in mitigating such risks. It develops eight policy proposals to promote risk reduction in the Arctic. Report: Prioritising People In The Arctic

TOPICS

(Perspectives) ILO. In statements to the World Bank and International Monetary Fund Annual Meetings, ILO calls for a crisis response that reduces inequalities and promotes sustainability, through universal social protection, adequate wage increases, greater support for vulnerable economies and respect for labour rights. Annual Meetings of the World Bank and the IMF: ILO Director-General calls for social protection and minimum wages to respond to cost-of-living crisis

WORLDS

• (Afghanistan)  Paulo Casaca, Modern Diplomacy. The former National Security Advisor to Afghanistan, Hamdullah Mohib, predicted in an interview for Arab News talk show ‘Frankly Speaking’ that the regime is not only close to collapsing but is on the brink of civil war – A new civil war in Afghanistan is brewing. Can we reverse it?
• (Australia – Singapore) Euan Graham, The Strategist. In 2016, I wrote a report on Australia’s defence and security partnership with Singapore, a few months after bilateral ties were upgraded to a comprehensive strategic partnership. I concluded then that the ‘lion and kangaroo’ were natural partners because of an unusual commonality in outlook and capability that each found hard to replicate elsewhere as fellow odd ones out in their immediate region. In the defence domain, I noted, Singapore and Australia had further potential to augment each other’s strategic depth, by enhancing reciprocal access and tightening what was already a close military relationship. Australia–Singapore comprehensive strategic partnership lives up to its billing
• (Australia – Singapore) Gatra Priyandita, The Strategist. As Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong visits Canberra this week for the annual Australia–Singapore leaders’ dialogue and meet Anthony Albanese for the first time since the Labor leader became prime minister, the focus should be on whether the bilateral relationship will continue along a meandering path of comfort or set itself to address the challenges of our time. Can the ‘natural partnership’ between Australia and Singapore survive great-power rivalry?
• (Azerbaijan – Armenia)  Aydin Salimli, Modern Diplomacy. Two years have passed since the second Nagorno-Karabakh war. Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict: Questions exceed answers
• (China) Michal Meidan, Aspenia online. I leader cinesi si sono impegnati a raggiungere il picco delle emissioni prima del 2030 e a conseguire la neutralità carbonica (net zero) entro il 2060. Questi impegni sono stati presi a settembre 2020, nel pieno della forte ripresa economica dopo il rallentamento indotto dalla pandemia. Il pacchetto di aiuti all’economia cinese poneva l’accento sulle infrastrutture per elettrificare gli usi finali dell’energia e accelerare la transizione verso un’economia a basse emissioni: la ripresa, però, non è stata granché verde. La transizione energetica cinese procede con il passo del gambero
• (China) Liu Xuanzun, Global Times. Xi Jinping on Sunday stressed further modernizing national defense and the military at the opening session of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), with analysts saying that the modernization will involve the informatization and intelligentization of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the PLA’s enhanced capability in safeguarding the country’s security. Xi stresses PLA centenary goals, military modernization at 20th CPC National Congress
• (China) Global Times. China on Sunday expounded the country’s indigenous approach to achieving modernization, as the Communist Party of China (CPC) set its sights on leading national efforts to accelerate the creation of a new development pattern and pursue high-quality development. China expounds indigenous way to achieve modernization, to navigate nation’s economy toward fairer, innovative growth
• (China) Xinhua. China has been improving its capability of ensuring food security over the past decade, with higher annual grain output and stable market operation, an official said Monday. (CPC Congress) China has stronger capability of ensuring food security: official
• (China) Mark Beeson, The Interpreter. Xi Jinping may be the most powerful man in the world. His principal rival for that title – Joe Biden – presides over a dysfunctional political system in which effective domestic and foreign policymaking is difficult and contested. Xi faces no such internal constraints, a reality that is certain to be entrenched when he is given an unprecedented third term as China’s president at the 20th Chinese Communist Party (CCP) National Congress currently underway in Beijing. Could China save the world?
• (China) East Asia Forum. The 20th National Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) commenced on 16 October and will run for seven days. The Congress takes place every five years and is the most important political event in the People’s Republic of China. The 20th Party Congress and the crowning of Xi Jinping
• (China – Shared Oceans) Cherry Hitkari, The Interpreter. While China’s growing naval presence has garnered much attention, awareness about its global maritime governance model remains limited. President Xi Jinping has spoken about “building a maritime community with a shared future” as part of a vision for what he has called a Community of Common Destiny. First set out in April 2019, Xi has emphasised the significant role oceans play in connecting nations and called for the adoption of “a new concept of comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security”.  Can China build a “community” for shared oceans?
• (Colombia) Modern Diplomacy. The head of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia told the Security Council on Wednesday that with the recent election of President Gustavo Petro, expectations were running high for progress towards the full and final implementation of a lasting peace deal, after decades of civil conflict. New expectations of progress towards final end of Colombia conflict
• (Haiti) Modern Diplomacy. An unrelenting series of crises has trapped vulnerable Haitians in a cycle of growing desperation, without access to food, fuel, markets, jobs and public services, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) warned on Friday.Hunger has reached a catastrophic level – the highest level 5, on the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification index, or IPC) – in the capital’s Cité Soleil neighbourhood. Catastrophic hunger recorded in Haiti for first time
• (Iran) Kylie Moore-Gilbert, The Strategist. Iran’s mass movement of popular protest, sparked by the death in custody of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini at the hands of the country’s notorious morality police, has now entered its fifth week. While many Western media outlets have focused on the feminist, women-led aspect of the demonstrations, the movement itself almost instantly jumped from a protest against the policy of forced hijab-wearing and the unequal treatment of women to an uncompromising demand that the regime itself must go. Iran’s revolutionary moment
• (Iran) Zachary Coles, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. The IRGC may resume attacks against targets in Iraqi Kurdistan in the coming days. Iran Crisis Update, October 16
• (Kazakhstan)  Ussen Suleiman, Modern Diplomacy. It has been approximately two months since Kazakhstan held a historic referendum on amendments to the country’s Constitution. Kazakhstan’s New Measures to Protect Human Rights
• (Mozambique) Modern Diplomacy. In Mozambique, more than 20 per cent of girls aged between 13 and 17 have been married or live with someone as if they were married. Women’s support groups are putting thousands of them on the road to financial independence, making them less vulnerable to gender-based violence.  A new, financially independent life for former child brides in Mozambique
• (Russia – Ukraine) Vitaly Charushin, Modern Diplomacy. The unexpected military defeat in the Kharkiv oblast and major reversals in the Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kherson oblasts has forced Vladimir Putin to announce a ‘partial mobilisation’ on September the 21^st. Following on the heels of rather conciliatory messages in front of President Xi of China and Prime Minister Modi of India at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, this underlined a fundamental contradiction between the Russian Federation’s foreign and domestic posture. The Perils of Russian mobilisation
• (Russia – Ukraine) Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. Ukraine must regain certain specific areas currently under Russian occupation to ensure its long-term security and economic viability. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 16
• (USA) Connor Echols, Responsible Statecraft. Twenty years ago today, President George W. Bush signed into law the authorization for the use of military force (AUMF) in Iraq. The measure, which allowed the president to defend the United States against “the continuing threat posed by Iraq,” had just sailed through both houses of Congress with a supermajority in each chamber. 20 years after Iraq War vote, Barbara Lee is fighting to end the War on Terror