GLI USA E LE ALLEANZE PER I SEMICONDUTTORI

All that is taken up here, in the complexity of open sources, does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Science of Where Magazine

FOCUS

• (USA) September 28, 2022. Robyn Klingler-Vidra and Yu-Ching Kuo, East Asia Forum. The importance of semiconductors to economic security adorned newspaper headlines in 2022. As part of its technological competition with China, the United States has introduced a policy of ‘friendshoring’ its semiconductor production to secure its supply of high-end chips that enable daily life and stock the inventory of major technology firms such as Apple. Washington shores-up friends in the semiconductor industry

TOPICS

• (Al-Qaeda) September 29, 2022. Sara Harmouch, War on the Rocks. Two months after a U.S. Hellfire missile posted a “Now Hiring” sign for al-Qaeda’s CEO position, experts continue to debate potential contenders while waiting for al-Qaeda to make an announcement. Some believe that the group’s silence on its new leader signals a crisis of succession. Others believe it suggests the end of an era for al-Qaeda as a key terrorist organization. While some counter-terror experts identified Saif al Adel and Abd al Rahman al Maghrebi as potential successors to al Zawahiri, a dark horse contender with long ties to Osama bin Laden could upend these predictions and threaten to revive one of history’s most lethal terrorist groups: Amin Muhammad Ul Haq Saam Khan. The Question of Succession in Al-Qaeda
• (Climate Change & Sustainability) September 29, 2022. David Uren, The Strategist. Coal accounted for half the growth in global power generation last year, and further increases are likely this year as European nations restart mothballed coal-fired power stations. The world’s appetite for coal was increasing even before the Ukraine war
• (Commodities) September 29, 2022. Karen Braun, Reuters. U.S. farmers are collecting their soybeans and corn slightly later than usual following slower spring planting, but there may not be a huge rush to deliver the crops to the export market as low water levels on major U.S. rivers could hamper grain movement. Column: Low river levels, S. America threaten U.S. soy, corn trade
• (Cybersecurity) September 29, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has warned US taxpayers of an “exponential” increase in text-based phishing attempts and urged users to report campaigns to help the government disrupt them. IRS Warns of “Industrial Scale” Smishing Surge
• (Cybersecurity) September 29, 2022. Rajiv Shah and Jocelinn Kang, The Strategist. Last week’s Optus data breach exposed the personally identifiable information of up to 9.8 million customers and former customers in Australia, including sensitive identity document details, with records going as far back as 2017. New approaches needed to prevent another Optus-level data breach
• (Cybersecurity) September 28, 2022. Emily Harding, Harshana Ghoorhoo, CSIS. Ransomware attacks started as a novelty but have now become a clear and present danger to entities of every size and function. The number of ransomware attacks and the price of demanded ransoms have escalated steeply since 2018. Legislation and policy have not kept up. Policymakers have sought to shape the incentive structure for victims to incentivize defense and disincentivize ransom payments. While they are sympathetic to businesses who fall victim to these attacks, which can sometimes be existentially threatening, few policymakers (or their staff) have ever experienced the shock of an attack firsthand and, as a result, are searching with incomplete information for the right combination of carrots and sticks that will help victims and hurt attackers. Hard Choices in a Ransomware Attack
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 27, 2022. Jorrit Kamminga, War on the Rocks. The first casualty of future warfare may very well be AI ethics. The AI-enabled digital transformation of the defense sector will clearly not stop. In the United States, the Silicon Valley culture of rapid technological innovation, fast prototyping, economies of scale, and lean startup methodologies has increasingly influenced the institutions and programs of defense during the past decade. The new vocabulary is speed, agility, and flexibility — to achieve bigger scales, lower costs, and constant software iteration. The goals include faster procurement and acquisition, research and development, prototyping, and fielding. This requires commercial technology developed by startups and the investment of venture capital firms in dual-use technology. All to meet the demand for real-time product updates and modular, plug-in and play standards, such as the modular open systems approach used in defense acquisition in the United States. More Than a Bicycle Brake on a Missile: AI Ethics in Defense
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 27, 2022. John D. Maurer, War on the Rocks. On Oct. 8, 1973, the Israel Defense Forces launched a major counterattack on Egyptian positions in the Sinai spearheaded by three armored brigades. Israeli commanders expected to repeat their rapid 1967 victory over the Egyptians, but they were disappointed. Egyptian forces employed new tactics and weapons, especially the Soviet-made AT-3 Sagger anti-tank missile, to repel the Israeli attack with heavy losses. The struggles of Israeli armored forces against anti-tank missiles during the Yom Kippur War led many observers to conclude that the balance in war had shifted once again in favor of the defender. Rather than accept stalemate, however, the U.S. military incorporated lessons from the Yom Kippur War to reemphasize close cooperation between surface and aerial forces to overcome the defender’s advantage. The result was astounding, as the American military crushed the Iraqi military in the 1991 Gulf War, expelling Iraqi forces from Kuwait. Airpower and Interdiction: Overcoming Defender Advantages
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 28, 2022. Maj. Kevin Rossillon, War on the Rocks. In theory, every officer in the military with skill or merit should be able to compete for promotion on a level playing field, with only the best and the brightest getting picked each year to advance. In practice, however, the U.S. armed services are sticking with a strict schedule of promotion that is stifling risk-taking and incentivizing the status quo. In Search of an Air Force Meritocracy
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 29, 2022. Peter Layton, The Interpreter. Nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs) are technically incredible. They are akin to the Australian Navy’s conventionally powered Collins Class submarines but much faster, much longer ranged and with much greater submerged endurance. However, in terms of combat systems and torpedoes, the Collins and SSNs are very similar. Both sink ships really well. By comparison, anti-ship missiles fired from aircraft, surface ships and land vehicles have small warheads and cause mission kills, that is, damages a hostile ship sufficiently that it leaves the battle for homeport and repairs.  Buying the wrong submarine
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 29, 2022. John Coyne, The Strategist. The terms of reference for the defence strategic review provided by the government to the independent leads are just short of two pages long. The length of this document doesn’t do justice to all that the two reviewers, former defence minister Stephen Smith and former defence force chief Angus Houston, are being asked to do in a very short timeframe. They’ll need to dive deep if they’re to deliver the frameworks for a level of capability and preparedness not seen in Australia since World War II. They will also need to navigate the usual parochial force posture demands—a relatively minor task in the bigger scheme of things. Defence review must examine Australia’s amphibious basing quandary
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 28, 2022. Vivienne Machi, Defense News. Propelled by an edict to make deep investments in its defense industrial base, France’s Ministry of Defense has unveiled a 2023 budget worth billions more than the previous year to launch a new “war economy.”. French 2023 defense budget adds $3 billion to fund ‘war economy’
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 28, 2022. Courtney Albon, Defense News. The National Reconnaissance Office awarded study contracts today to six commercial space companies to explore the potential of satellite radio frequency detection to meet military intelligence needs. NRO partners with commercial space firms on signal detection tech
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 28, 2022.  Mike Yeo, Defense News. Indonesia has reaffirmed its commitment to develop a fighter jet with South Korea, as questions about long-overdue payments for Jakarta’s share of the development remain unanswered. Indonesia touts KF-21 fighter jet need, but is mum on laggard payments
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 28, 2022. Colin Demarest, Defense News. Lockheed Martin and Verizon are experimenting with 5G-enabled drones and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance payloads in an effort that could ultimately enhance U.S. military command and control and in-the-field targeting abilities. Lockheed, Verizon testing 5G-linked drone swarm for intel collection
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 28, 2022. Mackenzie Eaglen and Bill Greenwalt, Defense News. After pushing Pentagon leaders for months to take more seriously the negative effects of rampant inflation, Congress is finally seeing some action. But now it may be defense leaders who need to push Capitol Hill to be bolder. Multiyear contracts could solve plenty of Pentagon problems
• (Digital & Tech) September 2022. Tanel Kerikmäe and David Ramiro Troitiño, CIDOB. From technology platforms and artificial intelligence to Fintech, cybersecurity, the gig economy and social networks, the digital society is already a fully defined and implemented reality. In this context, the digital development of the European Union (EU) has reached a crucial stage: from a range of perspectives the decisions and regulations adopted on this issue in the near future will significantly affect the whole of the EU, including the lives of its citizens and beyond. Issue 131 of Revista CIDOB d’Afers Internacionals analyses the process of digitalising the EU. Its multidisciplinary approach – taking in the fields of labour, security, information and politics, among others – helps understand the phenomenon, while also contributing to its scientific dissemination and encouraging critical thinking with the aim of achieving a fair, inclusive and competitive digital society. The digitalisation of the European Union: repercussions and expectations
• (Geo-energy) September 29, 2022. Clyde Russell, Reuters. If there is one thing the oil and coal industries can agree upon, it’s that the solution to the current global energy crisis is more fossil fuels. This was the consistent message from the two industries’ biggest annual gatherings in Asia, held this week in Singapore for oil and gas, and last week on the Indonesian resort island of Bali for coal. Column: Oil and coal sectors think more fossil fuels is the solution. Probably not
• (Global Economy) September 26, 2022. OECD. The world economy is paying a high price for Russia’s unprovoked, unjustifiable and illegal war of aggression against Ukraine. With the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic still lingering, the war is dragging down growth and putting additional upward pressure on prices, above all for food and energy. Global GDP stagnated in the second quarter of 2022 and output declined in the G20 economies. High inflation is persisting for longer than expected. In many economies, inflation in the first half of 2022 was at its highest since the 1980s. With recent indicators taking a turn for the worse, the global economic outlook has darkened. OECD Economic Outlook
• (Global Economy) September 28, 2022. Dan Peleschuk, Atlantic Council. Faced with a crisis that’s sending eurozone inflation to record highs, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde struck a decisive tone Wednesday during the Atlantic Council and Atlantik-Brücke’s Frankfurt Forum on US-European GeoEconomics—pledging to bring prices under control through consistent and deliberate policy. ECB chief Christine Lagarde: ‘Our primary objective is price stability’
• (Global Food Prices) September 27, 2022. Joseph Glauber, Manuel Hernández, Will Martin, David Laborde, Brendan Rice, Rob Vos, IFPRI. After the sharp rise in international prices of wheat and other staple foods in the wake of Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine, since May prices have fallen back to pre-war levels. Has the global food price crisis now come to an end? Unfortunately, such a conclusion is premature. Domestic food prices for consumers continue to rise in most countries. Meanwhile, ongoing uncertainties—not the least of which is the continuing war—augur for continued turmoil in global food markets. Global food security remains at high risk; hundreds of millions of people already face acute food insecurity and their numbers rising, according to the Global Report on Food Crises. In this blog post, we try to disentangle the main factors in play. No end in sight yet for the global food price crisis
• (Health & Digital) September 28, 2022. Shania Kennedy, Health IT Analytics. Pittsburgh-based UPMC Enterprises, the innovation, commercialization, and venture capital arm of UPMC, has launched a partnership and licensing agreement with data management company Clearsense, which will allow the company to integrate UPMC’s unstructured data platform into its own data management platform. UPMC Data Collection, Management Partnership Aims to Advance Patient Care
• (IAEA General Conference 2022) September 28, 2022. Annie Engstroem, IAEA. During the plenary session of the General Conference, 55 delegations delivered their statements, which are available here. General Conference: Day 3 Highlights
• (International Telecommunication Union) September 29, 2022. US Department of State. The Election of Doreen Bogdan-Martin as Secretary General of the International Telecommunication Union
• (JCPOA) September 27, 2022.  Lukasz Przybyszewski, ISDP. From the beginning, nuclear issues in Iran have always gathered plenty of international media debate. In retrospect, it is clear that the nuclear deal with Iran had very little chance of being revived and one should remain wary of another wave of media hype in the future. From 1992, Europe and Iran were engaged in a dialogue—first labeled as ‘critical’, then as ‘comprehensive’. The extraordinary circumstances and exceptional type personalities that led the negotiation process, drafting and ultimately signing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) may simply not reoccur again. JCPOA, as such, was a short-lived deal that turned out to be a trap and a tool, simultaneously. Yet, if Iran’s security environment deteriorates, it could in fact become a lockpick for Tehran. JCPOA – a Trap, a Tool, or Something Else?

WORLDS

• (Arctic) September 23, 2022. Sharon Guynup, Mongabay. Arctic sea ice extent shrank to its summertime minimum this week — tied with 2017 and 2018 for the 10th lowest ever recorded. However, the last 16 consecutive years have seen the least ice extent since the satellite record began. Polar sea ice extent, thickness and volume all continue trending steeply downward. 2022: Another consequential year for the melting Arctic
• (Azerbaijan – Armenia) September 28, 2022. Crisis Group. A fragile truce concluded on 14 September halted fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia that left hundreds of soldiers dead. In this Q&A, Crisis Group explains what occurred and what needs to happen now to restart the peace process between the two foes. Upholding the Ceasefire between Azerbaijan and Armenia
• (Azerbaijan – Armenia) September 28, 2022. Vasif Huseynov, The Jamestown Foundation. On September 14, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan addressed parliament in the wake of clashes at the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. Pashinyan announced that he would sign a document stipulating that “Armenia will have lasting peace and security in an area of 29,800 square kilometers,” in reference to the size of the internationally recognized territories of the Republic of Armenia (Arka.am, September 14). “I clearly state that I will sign a document that will ensure [this],” the Armenian premier confidently stated. According to him, “Many people will criticize us, scold us, call us traitors, they may even decide to remove us from power. … I am not interested in what will happen to me, I am interested in what will happen to Armenia. I am ready to make tough decisions for the sake of peace.”. Azerbaijan and Armenia Agree to Start Work on Peace Treaty (Part Two)
• (Bangladesh) September 29, 2022. United States Institute of Peace. The 2016 Holey Artisan Bakery attack in Dhaka brought international attention to the problem of violent extremism in Bangladesh and set off a concerted and controversial counterterrorism campaign by the Bangladeshi government. Six years later, the number of terrorist incidents has declined, but violent extremist groups continue their operations and recruitment. The Persistent Challenge of Extremism in Bangladesh
• (Belarus) September 28, 2022. Grigory Ioffe, The Jamestown Foundation. On September 23, Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei spoke at the most recent United Nations General Assembly session in New York (Facebook.com/belarusmfa, September 23). Opposition-minded commentators focused on what seems to be a contradiction between two refrains of Makei’s speech. On the one hand, he stressed that Belarus never initiated hostilities in Ukraine, facilitated truce talks between Russia and Ukraine and continues to favor the cessation of hostilities. On the other hand, Makei expressed “understanding” of Russia’s “partial mobilization” decision and, moreover, of Moscow’s original decision to launch the “special military operation.”. Minsk Harnesses Anti-Polish Sentiment
• (Central America) September 21, 2022. Sarah Bermeo,  Mary Speck, Ph.D., United States Institute of Peace. Annual migrant apprehensions at the U.S. southwestern border have surpassed 2 million, breaking previous fiscal year records. The flows (which include large numbers of repeat crossers) have grown increasingly multinational in recent years, including Haitians trying to escape their country’s violence and poverty, along with Cubans, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans fleeing a combination of economic misery and political repression. Mexicans seeking better paid work in the United States also continue to cross the border in large numbers, as they have for generations. How Climate Change Catalyzes More Migration in Central America
• (China) September 28, 2022. Nis Grünberg, Vincent Brussee, MERICS. China’s leadership has institutionalized agenda-setting and supervision within policy making around Xi Jinping. A look at the Central Commission for Comprehensively Deepening Reform (CCDR) (中央全面深化改革委员会) – a supra-ministry used to accelerate priority reforms of the Xi leadership – can tell us a great deal about the potentials and pitfalls associated with this trend, explain Nis Grünberg and Vincent Brussee in this MERICS Primer. The analysis is accompanied by a slidedeck that provides context and deeper insights on the topic. Xi’s Control Room: The Commission for Comprehensively Deepening Reform
• (Colombia) September 2022. Anna Ayuso, Aina Ferretti, CIDOB. El recién estrenado Gobierno de Gustavo Petro se ha propuesto como objetivo acabar con la violencia estructural en Colombia y construir la «paz total». Terminar con las agresiones y los homicidios contra los defensores de los derechos humanos es uno de los imperativos a los que debe hacer frente el nuevo presidente, por lo que algunas de las primeras medidas tomadas por su Gobierno van en este sentido. La «paz total» de Gustavo Petro: el imperativo de proteger a los defensores de los derechos humanos en Colombia
• (Colombia) September 27, 2022. Crisis Group. Colombia’s new president, Gustavo Petro, says he will work to bring “total peace” to the countryside, including areas roiled by violent competition among criminal and other armed groups. This task will require significant changes to military approaches devised for fighting the insurgencies of the past. Trapped in Conflict: Reforming Military Strategy to Save Lives in Colombia
• (Europe) September 2022. Carme Colomina, Héctor Sánchez Margalef, CIDOB. The project FACTS (From Alternative Narratives to Citizens True EU Stories) aimed to test the robustness of the traditional narrative of peace and prosperity that is still evoked as the main achievement of the European Union. FACTS tried to contrast if time has made a dent in this narrative; if it continues to be a powerful mobilizing factor; or if mobilized and non-mobilized citizens think of a different narrative than that of peace and prosperity. The project compared the perspectives of citizens in different member states exploring whether the divergences, if any, are geographic; if the narratives remain just as strong as in different times; and whether age or gender play a decisive role in citizen’s position regarding the EU. The aim was to answer questions such as what makes citizens more inclined to believe alternative narratives, rumours or fake news and if there were common trends in all these false narratives about the European Union. Finally, FACTS brought together citizens from each member state that had participated in the project with national parliamentarians to discuss the main findings of the project and encourage the exchange of ideas. The ultimate goal was that mobilized and non-mobilized citizens could speak directly with their democratically elected political representatives and could convey to them their positions and vision regarding the European Union, especially those related to narratives and disinformation. FACTS: From Alternative Narratives to Citizens True EU Stories
• (Europe) September 28, 2022. Ankita Dutta, ORF. The energy crisis in Europe has been an issue of concern for a few years now. Though it has been making efforts to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels, especially on Russia, it has not been able to achieve much success. A primary reason for this is that energy demand has increased while investments in renewable resources and other forms of alternative energy have not kept pace. Assessing Europe’s spiralling energy crisis
• (Germany) September 29, 2022. Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The crisis on the gas markets is having a severe impact on the German economy. Soaring gas prices are drastically increasing energy costs, leading to a massive reduction of the purchasing power. Despite a decline in the second half of the year, gross domestic product is expected to expand by 1.4 % this year. For the coming year, the institutes expect a contraction by 0.4 %, followed by an increase of 1.9 % in 2024. Joint Economic Forecast 2/2022: Energy crisis: inflation, recession, welfare loss
• (Germany) September 29, 2022. IFO. The German economy is being hit hard by the crisis on the gas markets. Skyrocketing gas prices are drastically increasing energy costs and are accompanied by a massive macroeconomic withdrawal of purchasing power. This is not only dampening the still incomplete recovery from the coronavirus crisis, but also pushing the German economy into recession. Overall, the institutes expect gross domestic product to expand by 1.4 percent this year and contract by 0.4 percent next year. In 2024, GDP will expand at an annual average rate of 1.9 percent. Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2022: Energy Crisis: Inflation, Recession, Welfare Loss
• (Germany) September 29, 2022. IFO. Sentiment among companies in eastern Germany deteriorated drastically in September. The ifo Business Climate Index for the entire regional economy fell to 85.2 points, down from 90.9 points in August. This is its lowest value since May 2020. A steep downward trend was apparent both in participating companies’ assessments of the current situation and in their outlook. ifo Business Climate in Eastern Germany Cools Dramatically (September 2022)
• (Germany) September 27, 2022. IFO. Sentiment among German exporters has cooled. The ifo Export Expectations fell to minus 6.0 points in September, down from minus 2.8 points in August. This is its lowest level since May 2020. There is currently no sign of growth in exports and, as the global economy is slowing, there is also no reason to expect any major change in the medium term. ifo Export Expectations Fall (September 2022)
• (India) September 28, 2022. Antara Vats, ORF. In this day and age, data has become a resource sought after by businesses and policymakers alike. Countries like India, the United Kingdom (UK), Australia, and many others are leveraging the power of enormous data reserves, collected and maintained by government departments, to reform their approach to governance and economic growth. The government, especially in India, is in control of heaps of raw datasets collected over decades through publicly funded projects and schemes like the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act 2005 which could be utilised to inform better policymaking. A decade into India’s open government data journey
• (India – Nepal) September 27, 2022. Rishi Gupta, VIF. Recently, the Nepal Electricity Authority said in a statement that in the last four months, Nepal exported electricity worth US$ 56 million to India, estimated to reach the US $ 234 million in December 2022. This is the first time Nepal has sold such a large quantity of electricity to India. If Nepal continues to export power to India at this pace, not only will the trade deficit between the two countries improve, but in the coming years, Nepal will contribute to a large part of its GDP by exporting electricity to India like its neighbouring country Bhutan. Energy: A New Dimension in India-Nepal Relations
• (Iran) September 29, 2022. Rodger Shanahan, The Interpreter. It is always difficult to judge the significance of popular protests in autocratic regimes, particularly so in the social media era, when tiny snippets of videos without context are often taken as evidence of a fundamental threat to a regime. Witness Iran at present, when CNN’s Jake Tapper for instance was a bit heavy on the hyperbole when he called the current protests roiling parts of the country a “pivotal moment for Iran and for the world”. Iran protests: the more things change …
• (Iran) September 28, 2022. Nicholas Carl, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Zachary Coles, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. Circumstantial evidence suggests that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is at least temporarily unable to perform his normal duties. Iran Crisis Update, September 28
• (Iraq) September 26, 2022. Haley Bobseine, Middle East Institute. Nearly one year after Iraq’s October 2021 parliamentary elections, the government has yet to be formed. The government formation power struggle pits the Sadrist Movement, led by populist Shi’a cleric Sayyid Muqtada al-Sadr, against the Coordination Framework (CF), a loose association of Shi’a parties, united mostly by their opposition to the Sadrist Movement. Central to the dispute are longstanding political rivalries and personal feuds in competition over government postings. Iraq’s crisis of elite, consensus-based politics turns deadly: The Coordination Framework
• (Myanmar) September 29, 2022. Mikael Gravers, East Asia Forum. 18 months after the Tatmadaw seized power, General Min Aung Hlaing and the junta are not inclined to negotiate with the National Unity Government (NUG) and the resistance he describes as ‘terrorists’. ASEAN’s five-point peace plan for the country is a failure and China merely worries about its investments in support of the regime. While the generals use visits from envoys from the UN and ASEAN to legitimise their regime, the NUG and the resistance are similarly unwilling to negotiate. Myanmar’s civil war meanders onward
• (Russia – Africa) September 27, 2022. Steven Gruzd, VIF. In this episode of VIF podcast, Steven Gruzd from the South African Institute of International Affairs discusses with Samir Bhattacharya, Research Associate at the Vivekananda International Foundation on the current contours of Russia-Africa relations, tracing the past experiences, new expectations and perceptions. There is a strong historical connection between Russia and Africa throughout the Cold War, when these two continents came close for the first time. Despite the temporary rupture in the relations, Russia seems to be back in the continent, particularly since the 2019 Sochi summit. Russia Africa Relations
• (Russia – Ukraine) September 28, 2022. Lt Gen (Dr) Rakesh Sharma (Retd.), VIF. On 24 February 2022, President Vladimir Putin announced ‘special military operation,’ the beginning of land, sea, and air offensive against Ukraine. The Western Pundits had forecast that the war under the onslaught of Russian famed military and technological prowess will be short, swift and lethal, forcing Ukraine to capitulate even in 48 hours! The war is a messy one, and its outcome, irrespective of the force asymmetry, cannot be guaranteed. It has been a literal see-saw, and on 21 September 2022, in a short televised address, President Vladimir Putin laid out his plans for continuation of Russia’s moves in the war in Ukraine. He declared the partial mobilisation of perhaps 300,000 reservists, referendum in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories and thinly-veiled threat of use nuclear weapons. President Putin’s military call-up and possible nuclear threat comes days after the Ukrainian army pulled off a surprise counter offensive to recapture territory around its second-largest city, Kharkiv, in the east. On use of nuclear weapons, President Putin said “It’s not a bluff.” There are six quintessential posers that need analysis at this juncture. The Russia-Ukraine War 2022: A Point of No Return?
• (Russia – Ukraine) September 28, 2022. Rachel S. Cohen and Joe Gould, Defense News. Following Kyiv’s successful counteroffensive against Russia’s invading forces, U.S. defense officials say Ukrainians have found new ways to use a patchwork of donated weaponry more effectively. With a mix of donated weapons, Ukraine’s defenders adapt in war
• (Russia – Ukraine) September 28, 2022. Joe Gould, Defense News. The Pentagon announced Wednesday it will contract with industry for $1.1 billion in military aid to Ukraine, including 18 High-Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and other arms to counter drones Russia has been using against Ukrainian troops. New Ukraine aid will buy 18 HIMARS and weapons to ‘disrupt’ drones
• (Russia – Ukraine) September 28, 2022. Vladimir Socor, The Jamestown Foundation. The Russian State Duma and Federation Council are set to enact the annexation of Ukraine’s Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions and the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” (“DPR”, “LPR”) to the Russian Federation, following the September 23–27 annexation “referendums” in those areas. The Duma’s chair, Vyacheslav Volodin, refers to those aggregated territories as Novorossiya (Interfax, September 28), in tune with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s eight-year project of the same designation (see EDM, September 23). Russia Consummates Annexation ‘Referendums’ in Occupied Ukrainian Territories
• (Russia – Ukraine) September 28, 2022. IAEA. Animals are likely to have triggered three landmine explosions close to Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) this week, causing no major damage but once again underscoring potential nuclear safety risks at the facility, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) learnt at the site today. Update 107 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine
• (Russia – Ukraine) September 28, 2022. Karolina Hird, Katherine Lawlor, Grace Mappes, Riley Bailey, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. Russian milbloggers discussed Ukrainian gains around Lyman with increased concern on September 28, suggesting that Russian forces in this area may face imminent defeat. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 28
• (UK) September 2022. Francis Ghilès, CIDOB. British new prime minister, Liz Truss, will be soon confronted with the task of bridging the gap between campaign promises and government delivery. If Truss chooses to prioritise tax cuts for the better off and rules out welfare “handouts” for poorer families in the face of unprecedented rises in energy prices, she will get off to a bumpy ride. The last two Conservative prime ministers, Teresa May and Boris Johnson, lasted less than three years. In both cases they were thrown out by revolts of their own party in parliament.  How long will Truss last
• (USA) September 29, 2022. Cindy Huang, Center for Global Development. The challenge of rapidly welcoming tens of thousands of Afghans and Ukrainians to the United States in FY22 created opportunities to reform and expand the US resettlement program. In a prior blog, I outlined key takeaways and recommendations in response to the Biden administration’s report to Congress on proposed refugee admissions for FY2023. Earlier this week, President Biden finalized the plan for refugee admissions of up to 125,000 through a Presidential Determination. US Leadership in Refugee Resettlement: Beyond the Numbers
• (USA) September 29, 2022. Daniel Ollendorf, Center for Global Development. Alarge crowd gathered on the White House lawn recently to celebrate the passage of H.R. 5376, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Among the IRA’s key provisions was an enabling of the Medicare program, the national public insurance scheme in the US for the elderly, to directly negotiate prices with prescription drug manufacturers for the first time in its nearly 60-year history. In the words of President Joseph R. Biden, Jr.: “for years, so many of us have been trying to fix this problem. But for years, Big Pharma blocked Medicare from negotiating lower drug…prices.  But not this year.  Not this year.  This year, the American people won, and Big Pharma lost.”. Be Careful What You Wish For: Suppressing Value Assessment in the US Will Mean Importing It from Abroad
• (USA) September 28, 2022. Rayan Sud and Sanjay Patnaik, Brookings. The Biden administration has set a target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to half of 2005 levels by 2030 and to net zero by 2050. To meet these targets the United States will have to quickly build a vast amount of clean energy infrastructure, replacing fossil fuel powered electricity generation with renewable sources of electricity like wind and solar. In addition, direct consumption of fossil fuels such as gasoline-powered cars and gas-powered heating will have to be electrified and powered by the new clean electric grid. These factors combined mean that to achieve the Biden administration’s targets, the electric grid needs to be expanded by at least 60% by 2030, and electricity demand may nearly double by 2050. How does permitting for clean energy infrastructure work?
• (USA) September 28, 2022. Dani Rodrik, Brookings. For decades the service sector has driven the economy in the United States. Is there a role for industrial policy in sustaining this growth? Dani Rodrik (Harvard University) has written a policy proposal that explains how a modern industrial policy framework would create more “good jobs” by improving productivity and labor income growth for service-sector workers. Rodrik defines a good job as one that invests in worker skills, provides workers with a voice, discretion, and autonomy, and gives them responsibility for the quality of service. An industrial policy for good jobs
• (USA) September 28, 2022. Mitchell Barnes, Lauren Bauer, and Wendy Edelberg, Brookings. Since early 2020, there have been extraordinary disruptions across all sectors of the economy. This set of nine economic facts about the service sector in the United States illustrates recent trends in spending, employment, and inflation as the country continues to rebalance. We find that the effects of the pandemic linger: only in recent months has activity in the service sector recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Nonetheless, activity is still well below where it was expected to be in the absence of the pandemic, and further recovery is expected. Nine facts about the service sector in the United States
• (USA) September 28, 2022. Erica R.H. Fuchs, Brookings. In a Hamilton Project proposal, author Erica R.H. Fuchs of Carnegie Mellon University and the National Bureau of Economic Research proposes the creation of a national capability for cross-mission critical technology analytics to build the intellectual foundations, data, and analytics needed to inform national technology strategy.  Building the analytic capacity to support critical technology strategy
• (USA – China) September 28, 2022. Matthew P. Goodman, CSIS. In mid-September, officials from the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB), a nonprofit corporation established by Congress and overseen by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), arrived in Hong Kong to begin inspecting the auditors of some 250 Chinese companies with shares listed on U.S. stock exchanges. If successfully carried to completion, these inspections would mark the first time authorities in Beijing have provided U.S. regulators such extensive access to the audit papers of Chinese firms. The PCAOB’s Hong Kong sojourn was made possible by an unprecedented deal in which the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) and China’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) agreed to a detailed framework under which investigations could take place. While this statement of protocol (SOP) appears to be a significant breakthrough, whether the agreement can withstand political pressures on both sides remains uncertain. Unpacking the PCAOB Deal on U.S.-Listed Chinese Companies