CAMBIA LA GEOGRAFIA DELL’ECONOMIA GLOBALE

FOCUS

Danilo Taino scrive, Corriere L’Economia, 23 maggio 2022: Alle imprese – quelle italiane in testa – servono nuovi radar per navigare il mondo dell’economia nell’era dello scontro tra potenze.

Tornata pesantemente la geo-politica e, in essa, l’importanza del prefisso “geo”. Conoscere per competere, potrebbe essere il nuovo mantra di chi vuole mettersi in gioco nel mondo in così profonda e veloce trasformazione.

Ancora un volta, partendo dalla Cina. Nota efficacemente Taino: Ufficialmente, in Cina nessuno osa mettere in discussione la lucidità di giudizio di Xi. Però … La politica di Zero-Covid sta avendo effetti pesanti. A Shanghai le restrizioni sono in via di smantellamento ma il fallimento del controllo della pandemia ha portato a proteste sociali. E altre città rimangono chiuse e l’economia ne soffre. Si cerca ora il capro espiatorio, il quale non può essere Xi, nonostante la politica di strettissimi lockdown l’abbia voluta e imposta lui. Chi rischia la carriera in sua vece è Li Qiang, il segretario del partito a Shanghai, il quale però è uno stretto alleato del leader supremo. Che ne sarà di lui al prossimo congresso non si sa ma il suo destino potrà segnalare se è in corso un certo ridimensionamento del potere, apparentemente assoluto, di Xi.

Venendo al punto decisivo, lo scontro è nel cuore dell’economia tecnologica: Ancora più significativo è ciò che succede in settori decisivi dell’economia. Gli esperti di Cina dicono che è in corso uno scontro sulle regol che hanno frenato le grandi aziende hi-tech del Paese. Alibaba, Tencent, Didi. Su di loro, Xi ha imposto una serie di regole e di obblighi che le hanno messe sotto un maggiore controllo del partito. E che ha provocato nel settore una perdita di duemila miliardi di dollari di capitalizzazione di Borsa. Ora, il primo ministro Li Keqiang e il suo vice (numero uno negli affari economici) Liu He stanno cercando di rimediare, di allentare le restrizioni sulle Big Tech per evitare danni all’economia già in affanno (il Fondo monetario internazionale prevede una crescita nel 2022 del 4,4%, molto meno del già basso 5,5% che è l’obiettivo del governo). Ma mentre i due facevano intuire che le limitazioni sarebbero state ridotte, giornali legati a Xi hanno ribadito la linea della “prosperità comune”, cioè restrizioni alla crescita guidata dal business a favore della redistribuzione sociale guidata dal partito. Sottopelle, insomma, ci sono divergenze di opinione, probabilmente rafforzate dai dubbi sulla saggezza di Xi quando ha definito “senza limiti” l’amicizia con la Russia di Putin. Alle questioni interne si aggiunge il fatto che il rafforzamento del dollaro sta spingendo a un’uscita degli investitori internazionali dai bond cinesi: per 35 miliardi di dollari tra gennaio e aprile.

In questo quadro, della Cina in movimento e di una Russia sulla quale campeggia un enorme punto interrogativo, cosa ne sarà del quadro globale e quale impatto avrà sull’Italia ? Cresceranno le rotte translatlantiche ? L’India diventerà un partner più importante ? Mentre la globalizzazione si ri-configura, l’invito è a ri-scrivere (proprio così, scrivere continuamente) la mappa dei rischi.

FROM THINK TANKS

WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM

• May 23, 2022. By Magdalena Skipper, Stéphane Bancel, Vivianne Heijnen, David Dao, Isabella Eckerle, Marco Lambertini, WEF. Many of the root causes of the environmental crisis also increase the risk of pandemics. Activities such as deforestation and livestock farming are simultaneously heating up the planet while exposing us to new pathogens.
  What changes can we make in our lifestyles to mitigate the links between climate change and pandemics? World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2022, Davos
• May 23, 2022. By Julia Chatterley, Kristalina Georgieva, Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput, François Villeroy de Galhau, Axel Lehmann, WEF. Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) have the potential to reshape financial systems, changing the landscape of payments and banking. More countries are experimenting with CBDCs and some are beginning to bring them to market, potentially offering lessons for the rest of the world. What are the macroeconomic and geopolitical implications surrounding the roll-out of CBDCs? How can the public and private sectors work together to ensure that CBDC development ultimately benefits consumers and minimizes risks to financial stability? World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2022, Davos
• May 23, 2022. By Alok Sharma, M. Sanjayan, Sheldon Whitehouse, Aaditya Thackeray, Bart De Smet, Emily Shuckburgh, Sameh Shoukry, WEF. While rapid decarbonization to reach net zero by 2050 remains an imperative, helping the estimated 3.6 billion people living in vulnerable contexts to adapt to climate change is also an urgent global priority. How can public-private partnerships in areas such as technology, finance, and innovation both create business value and strengthen climate adaptation? World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2022, Davos
• May 23, 2022. By Hilde Schwab, Phillip Atiba Goff, Richard W. Edelman, Hahrie Han, Rana Dajani, Pranshu Singhal, Mikaela Jade, Ashraf Patel, Rene Parker, Sanjay Pradhan, Jos De Blok, Sam McCracken, Celso Athayde, Gisela Sanchez, Adriana Mallet, Kennedy Odede, Alberto Alemanno, Adam Kahane, WEF. From harnessing emerging technologies to empowering those on the fringes of society, systemic solutions to the world’s most pressing problems will require coordinated action from governments, businesses and local actors to ensure a sustainable and equitable post-COVID era. What actions and solutions can leaders take to rebuild the trust needed to reimagine the ways we live? Join us for an awards ceremony reimagined to celebrate the 2022 Social Innovators of the Year, who are transforming the world through trust. World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2022, Davos
• May 23, 2022. By Cristina Gamboa, Anna König Jerlmyr, Francis Suarez, Ian Leslie Edwards, Christian Ulbrich, Maimunah Mohd Sharif. Cities around the world are undergoing rapid change as they adapt to new modes of work, migration, geopolitical instability, demographic shifts, climate change and other challenges. In parallel, urban communities are preparing for a wave of new economic stimulus and infrastructure spending. How can government and business support and enable more resilient cities and urban economies? World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2022, Davos
• May 23, 2022. By Zanny Minton Beddoes, Manny Maceda, Allen Blue, Shobana Kamineni, Josephine Teo, WEF. A skills-based approach to hiring is five times as effective at delivering job success for entry-level employees as a focus on qualifications. What are the key requirements for a common framework to put skills at the heart of talent management, enabling individuals to flourish and organizations to succeed? World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2022, Davos
• May 23, 2022. By  Rebecca Blumenstein, Pat Toomey, Dan Schulman, Adena Friedman, Jason Furman, WEF. Over the past year, parts of the United States economy have bounced back rapidly, but there have also been numerous challenges, including supply chain disruptions, a surge in inflation and a difficult policy-making environment. What actions and policies are needed to deliver sustained and equitable growth in an uncertain landscape? World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2022, Davos
• May 23, 2022. By Nicholas Carlson, André Kudelski, Brett Solomon, Christian Lanng, Subha Tatavarti, WEF. Data ecosystems are being reshaped by the shifting geopolitical, business and technology landscape of 2022. How do lead stakeholders now see their own data-driven ecosystems evolving and what are the wider implications for the global economy, businesses worldwide and society at large? World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2022, Davos
• May 23, 2022. By Sally Buzbee, Blake Moret, Sharan Burrow, Frans van Houten, Amitabh Kant, WEF. COVID-19 was a reminder of the crucial importance of the manufacturing sector to both the global economy and society. However, within the framework of the new geopolitical landscape, an uncertain global economic outlook, and climate change disruptions, cooperation and coordination spanning all stakeholders in production systems needs to be urgently strengthened. What are the key challenges and opportunities for the production sector in the months ahead and what strategic priorities and partnerships should guide the work of the global manufacturing community? World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2022, Davos
• May 23, 2022. By Ishaan Tharoor, Hina Rabbani Khar, Achim Steiner, WEF. Following the Taliban’s assumption of power in Afghanistan, tensions between traditionalists and pragmatists in the new government have been brought into the open on issues such as education for girls. How can public and private sector actors promote stability in the country and restore its war-torn economy? World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2022, Davos
• May 23, 2022. By Katherine Bell, Ellyn Shook, Caroline Casey, David Kenny, Sigve Brekke, WEF. The World Health Organization estimates that over 1 billion people – 15% of the global population – live with disability. From screenless braille PCs, to autonomous vehicles and smart assistant tools, inclusive design considers human diversity and creates new ways for people to participate in socioeconomic life. How can inclusive design and disability-led modelling drive innovation to deliver inclusive economies that work for all? World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2022, Davos
• May 23, 2022. By Doris Leuthard, Martin Vetterli, Julian Teicke, André Helfenstein, Benedikt Wechsler, WEF. Adopting digital responsibility and embracing digital trust are the new requirements for companies to stay competitive. Join us as Swiss business leaders, government officials and academia walk the talk by putting principles into practice. World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2022, Davos
• May 23, 2022. By Geoff Cutmore, Kristalina Georgieva, Jane Fraser, François Villeroy de Galhau, David M. Rubenstein, WEF. The International Monetary Fund forecast global growth in 2022 at 4.4%, but these projections are being revised downwards as conflict and the fallout from sanctions ripple across global markets. What are the headwinds and tailwinds facing the global economy and what mix of policies are needed in a new volatile context? World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2022, Davos
• May 23, 2022. By Daniel Kurtz-Phelan, Christopher A. Coons, Egils Levits, Timothy Snyder, Sherry Rehman, WEF. The consensus on democratic norms has shown signs of fraying in recent years, with increased polarization, disillusion and authoritarian patterns of governance, including in advanced Western democracies. How serious are the strains on democracy and what steps can be taken to reinvigorate democratic societies and institutions? World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2022, Davos
• May 23, 2022. By Sam McCracken, Mikaela Jade, WEF. Indigenous storytelling is a powerful tool for preserving biocultural heritage and diversity. Stories can give voice to wildlife and nature, connecting people to their environment. In this session, join Schwab Foundation awardee Mikaela Jade, as she brings remote and ancient stories to life with cutting-edge digital technology. World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2022, Davos
• May 23, 2022. By Klaus Schwab, Henry A. Kissinger, WEF. World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2022, Davos
• May 23, 2022. By Sara Pantuliano, Asif Saleh, Jeremy Allaire, Brad Garlinghouse, WEF. Remittances have long been a critical source of income in developing countries. They have steadily increased over the years, a product of migration patterns and advances in cash-transfer technologies. How can the public and private sectors collaborate to lower the costs of remittances and create policies for inclusive socio-economic development? World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2022, Davos
• May 23, 2022. By Nadine Hani, Alain Bejjani, Mohammed Bin Mahfoodh Bin Saad Al Ardhi, Salman bin Khalifa Al Khalifa, Mohammed Al-Jadaan, WEF. While the Middle East and North Africa region is projected to grow by around 5% in 2022, unemployment has risen and war in Ukraine has exacerbated inflationary pressures that could hamper the prospects of several countries. What actions can the region’s key economies take to leverage their recent massive investments in response to the pandemic to shape a robust and more inclusive recovery? World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2022, Davos
• May 23, 2022. By Gustavo Manrique Miranda, Magdalena Skipper, Jim Leape, Elizabeth Cousens, Jane Nelson, WEF. Blue foods represent a promising solution to the challenge of sustainably feeding a growing world population, while also making positive contributions to food security, nutrition, economic growth and jobs. What policies and partnerships are needed to realize the potential for producing aquatic foods sustainably? World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2022, Davos
• May 23, 2022. By Elena Cherney, Hilary Cottam, Fernanda Lopes Larsen, Leo Varadkar, Christy Hoffman, WEF. The pandemic threw into sharp relief how reliant we are on essential workers for the functioning of economies and societies. How can we ensure that this awareness translates into sustained improvements in pay and conditions to revalue and reward essential work appropriately? World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2022, Davos

AROUND THE WORLD

Africa

• May 24, 2022. By HRW.  African Union (AU) member countries should use their upcoming summit to commit to addressing human rights issues underlying armed conflict and political upheaval on the African continent, Human Rights Watch said today. The Extraordinary Summit on Terrorism and Unconstitutional Changes of Government will take place on May 25-28, 2022, in Malabo, Equatorial Guinea. AU: Focus on Root Causes of Conflict, Political Instability

Asia

• May 24, 2022. By Brahma Chellaney, The Strategist, Project-Syndicate. With global attention focused on Russia’s war in Ukraine, China’s territorial expansionism in Asia—especially its expanding border conflict with India—has largely fallen off the international community’s radar. Yet, in the vast glaciated heights of the Himalayas, the world’s demographic titans have been on a war footing for more than two years, and the chances of violent clashes rise almost by the day. The clash of Asia’s titans
• May 24, 2022. By Cyn-Young Park, East Asia Forum. Crude oil breached US$130 per barrel in March 2022 — its highest level since 2008 — before retreating to US$100 per barrel in April. The factors behind the rise include protracted low investment in global oil production, a slide in the global inventory and a pick-up in demand related to economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. But most significant was the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which increased supply uncertainty amid already tight market conditions.  Rising oil prices don’t bode well for Asia

Australia

• May 24, 2022. By HRW. The new Australian prime minister, Anthony Albanese, should make ambitious action on climate a priority of his new government, Human Rights Watch said today. Australia: Crucial Need for Ambitious Climate Action

Australia – Middle East

• May 24, 2022. By Samy Akil, Anas Iqtait, The Interpreter. Australian foreign policy has largely been reactive rather than proactive in recent times. The fallout of the AUKUS agreement with France, and the recent Solomon Islands-China security pact are just two recent examples of such. Why the Middle East matters to Australia

Australia – Southeast Asia

• May 24, 2022. By Teesta Prakash, The Interpreter. During the Australian election campaign, Labor pledged $470 million aid to Southeast Asia over four years, marking it as an attempt to re-engage the region. Labor also promised to appoint a high-level roving envoy to Southeast Asia. Now that Labor is in power, these promises are set to become policy. But there are risks in using aid as a tool to bridge the strategic divergence that has created distance between Australia and Southeast Asia in the last couple of years, especially as the Quad has strengthened and with the AUKUS announcement. Engaging with Southeast Asia: more than aid

Balkans

• May 23, 2022. By Richard Record, Sanja Madzarevic-Sujster, and Tihomir Stucka, Brookings. The countries of the Western Balkans are facing a series of economic shocks all at the same time. The region’s economy was only just beginning to bounce back from the COVID-19-induced recession, but now also needs to grapple with the fallout of the war in Ukraine, a resurgence in inflation, and a pressing energy transition. Steering through these crises involves risks and will require careful choices. Overlapping crises in the Western Balkans

Belt and Road Initiative

• May 24, 2022. By Ye Yu, East Asia Forum. On 21 November 2021, Chinese President Xi Jinping laid out the key principles for the next stage of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Risk control of BRI projects was a key focus. Xi encouraged companies and their regulatory bodies to prioritise ‘small and beautiful’ projects in international cooperation and to avoid ‘dangerous and turmoiled places’. Making the Belt and Road Initiative small and beautiful

China

• May 23, 2022. By Gerard DiPippo, Ilaria Mazzocco, Scott Kennedy, Matthew P. Goodman, CSIS. A new report by the CSIS Economics Program and the Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics quantifies the size of total industrial policy spending by China and compares it to seven other major economies: Brazil, France, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the United States. Much of the existing research on industrial policy focuses on its effects, but there are few, if any, published studies that attempt a systematic comparison and quantification of overall industrial policy spending. The heart of the report is the careful calculation of total industrial policy spending by China and the other economies, combining estimates from multiple tools, among them direct subsidies, tax breaks, below-market credit, and state investment funds. Red Ink: Estimating Chinese Industrial Policy Spending in Comparative Perspective

Indo – Pacific

• May 23, 2022. By Aidan Arasasingham, Emily Benson, Matthew P. Goodman, William Reinsch, CSIS. At a public event in Tokyo on May 23, 2022, President Biden and 12 regional counterparts officially launched the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) with a joint statement and hybrid meeting of participating leaders. Coming five years after the United States withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the IPEF is intended to reassert U.S. economic engagement in a vital region and provide a U.S.-led alternative to China’s economic statecraft in the region. Though no new binding commitments were made in Tokyo under this framework, the long-awaited launch formally kicks off the centerpiece economic initiative of the Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy. Unpacking the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework Launch

Libya

• May 24, 2022. By The Libya Observer. The Secretary-General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres, said on Monday that elections are now more essential than ever, as he urged the Libyan parties to resume the electoral process that was halted last December. Guterres urges Libyans to resume electoral process as soon as possible
• May 24, 2022. By The Libya Observer. Spain launched on Sunday a workshop on the modalities of international support for a program of disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) of Libyan armed groups, in the Spanish city of Toledo, with the participation of the Special Adviser to the United Nations Secretary-General on Libya, Stephanie Williams and the European Union Ambassador to Libya, Jose Sadabell. Spain hosts a workshop on Libya crisis
• May 24, 2022. By The Libya Observer. The Libyan army has launched a large-scale operation to crack down on outlaws and gangs in Bani Walid town west of Tripoli. Army cracks down on gangs in Bani Walid
• May 24, 2022. By The Libya Observer. Muhammad Menfi, head of the Presidential Council, and Chairman of the High Council of State, Khaled Al-Mishri, met on Monday to discuss the outcomes of Cairo’s talks between the House of Representatives and the HCS joint committee regarding the constitutional path. Menfi reviews outcomes of Cairo’s talks with HCS head
• May 24, 2022. By The Libya Observer. The Ministry of Economy and Trade of the Government of National Unity has issued a decision to prohibit all foreigners from practicing all commercial activities, including buying and selling operations, whether directly or on behalf of others and renting bakeries or shops. The decision directed the police authorities and members of the Municipal Guard to seize violators of the provisions of the decision. Ministry of Economy prohibits foreigners from practicing commercial activities

Mozambique

• May 23, 2022. By Merja Laakso and Sebastian Petric, Brookings. Recently, Mozambique’s growth trajectory has been driven by pandemic-related restrictions, the conflict in Cabo Delgado, extreme damage by tropical storms, and by commodity output and prices. Moreover, the hidden debt scandal in 2016 also impacted external funding in the country. Not all is negative—at the same time, new opportunities in the energy sector are opening doors for an economic boost. More specifically, the country is taking steps into a new direction toward creating an environment that enables private investment in the off-grid sector leading the country towards a more positive trajectory. An increased role for private sector: Mozambique’s new regulatory policy in the off-grid energy sector

QUAD

• May 24, 2022. By Gemma King, The Strategist. The relative decline of US influence in the Indo-Pacific has upset the regional status quo and leaves a clear power vacuum. With little sign of the US presence being quickly restored to what it once was, there is a pressing need for Australia and Japan to assert themselves as regional powers. Quad leaders’ summit highlights Australia’s and Japan’s opportunities for regional leadership
• May 23, 2022. By Sourabh Gupta, East Asia Forum. In the 14 months since its first leader-level summit, the Quad has gone from being a shiny object of tantalising potential to a used spare tire of questionable worth. Has the Quad passed its peak?

Russia – Ukraine (on the ground, impact)

• May 23, 2022. By Joe Gould and Meghann Myers, Defense News. Denmark will arm Ukraine with with a modern Harpoon anti-ship launcher and missiles to protect its coasts, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Monday after concluding the latest U.S.-led meeting of international defense chiefs to coordinate military aid for Ukraine. Ukraine to get Harpoon anti-ship missiles from Denmark amid Russian Black Sea blockade
• May 23, 2022. By Mark F. Cancian, CSIS. Congress has approved $40 billion in aid for Ukraine and other countries affected by the conflict―the sixth aid package since the war began. A major change is that this package looks ahead months rather than weeks. What Does $40 Billion in Aid to Ukraine Buy?
• May 23, 2022. By Giorgi Menabde, The Jamestown Foundation. On May 17, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed an order to lift all restrictions on the movement of Russian citizens through the Nizhny Zaramag checkpoint, located near the border with Georgia, at the north end of the Roki Tunnel (Kommersant, May 18). The Roki Tunnel connects Russia’s region of North Ossetia with South Ossetia, the separatist Georgian territory, which Moscow recognized as “independent” following the 2008 Russian-Georgian war. The recent Russian government order not only rescinds overland travel limitations formally associated with the COVID-19 pandemic but other prohibitions as well (Ekho Kavkaza, May 17). Russia Is Ready to Reward Georgia for Standing Down
• May 23, 2022. By Victor Davidoff, The Jamestown Foundation. At dawn on Thursday (May 19), an ethanol plant in the Russian village of Tyotkino, in Kursk Oblast, near the Ukrainian border, came under artillery fire for the second day in a row. One person died in the attack (TASS, May 19). On Wednesday, the villages of Solokhi and Bezymeno, in neighboring Belgorod Oblast, were also shelled; one injury was reported (TASS, May 18). Why Is the Kremlin Silent About Attacks on Russian Territory?
• May 23, 2022. By Pavel K. Baev, The Jamestown Foundation. In the seemingly deadlocked but, in fact, fast-evolving war in Ukraine, two impactful events coincided in mid-May, altering the course of the battles and political stand-off. The first one was the end of the months-long resistance of Mariupol, as the last defenders of the city’s Azovstal steel plant emerged from their underground fortress. The second one was the United States Senate’s approval of the emergency aid package to Ukraine amounting to the colossal sum of $40 billion. These developments might appear to drive the war in different directions, promoting, respectively, its fast conclusion or continuing transformation. Yet in reality, when taken together, they signify a new boost to the already-high resolve of the Ukrainian state and society to defeat Russia’s aggression, along with a fresh surge in Western support for this cause. Presumably nobody wants the war to drag on for years; but since Russian ambitions and Ukrainian patriotism remain incompatible, diplomats have a slim chance to invent a compromise, and it is up to the soldiers to break the deadlock (Rosbalt, May 19). Will the Closure at Azovstal Plant Steel Ukraine’s Resolve to Keep Fighting?
• May 23, 2022. By Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, Mason Clark, and George Barros, ISW. Russian nationalist figures are increasingly criticizing the failures of Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine and are calling for further mobilization that the Kremlin likely remains unwilling and unable to pursue in the short term. The All-Russian Officers Assembly, an independent pro-Russian veterans’ association that seeks to reform Russian military strategy, called for Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin to declare war on Ukraine and introduce partial mobilization in Russia on May 19.[1] The Assembly said that Russia’s “special military operation” failed to achieve its goals in three months, especially after the failed Siverskyi Donets River crossings. ISW previously assessed that the destruction of nearly an entire Russian battalion tactical group (BTG) during a failed river crossing on May 11 shocked Russian military observers and prompted them to question Russian competence.[2] The Assembly’s appeal called on Putin to recognize that Russian forces are no longer only “denazifying” Ukraine but are fighting a war for Russia’s historic territories and existence in the world order. The officers demanded that the Kremlin mobilize all regions bordering NATO countries (including Ukraine), form territorial defense squads, extend standard military service terms from one year to two, and form new supreme wartime administrations over Russia, the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR), and newly occupied Ukrainian settlements. The officers also demanded the death penalty for deserters. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 23
• May 23, 2022. By Chris Heitzig, Aloysius Uche Ordu, and Leo Holtz, Brookings. Financial sanctions tend to hurt both the sanctioned and the sanctioner, but they also threaten to hurt countries that are financially interlinked with the sanctioned country. Recent sanctions levied on Russia by the United States and the European Union in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are disrupting global trade and financial networks across the world, including in Africa. The sanctions prevent U.S. and eurozone banks, their foreign affiliates, and Russian banks based in the U.S. and eurozone countries from facilitating dollar and euro transactions on behalf of Russian entities. The problem for Africa is that roughly 95 percent of all trade is invoiced in these two sanctioned currencies alone and that a vast majority of Africa’s $14 billion trade with Russia is likely denominated in these two currencies. How currency sanctions on Russia could disrupt trade with Africa
• May 23, 2022. By Steven Pifer, Brookings. Three months after Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine began, the Russians have failed to achieve their objectives. U.S. officials now expect a war of attrition, with neither side capable of a decisive military breakthrough. How the war will conclude remains unclear. The Russia-Ukraine war at three months

Syria

• May 24, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. Speaking to a radio station loyal to the Assad regime, economist Ammar Youssef said that needy Syrian households of five people need 3 million Syrian pounds a month for food and drink, according to his estimates. He discussed the repercussions of the decision to raise fuel prices yet again.  Syrian Economist: “We Will Go Below the Abyss”
• May 24, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. Syria warned of the danger of recent statements by the Turkish regime regarding the establishment of a so-called “safe zone” in northern Syria. It called on the international community not to bargain with this regime on the territory of other countries.  Mekdad: International Community Should not Support Turkish regime in Occupying Territory of Others
• May 24, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. The current Syrian identity does not represent all Syrians, a Syrian Kurdish opposition official said Saturday, arguing that other non-Arabic-speaking communities in the country existed and deserved special status. Arab Identity does not Represent all Syrians, Says Opposition Kurdish Official
• May 24, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. On Sunday, it was announced that civil sit-in-based events in al-Bab, east of Aleppo, had been dispersed after four days. The decision followed responses to the protesters’ demands to remove the head of the military police branch in Bab city and refer him for investigation.  Protesters in al-Bab End Sit-in
• May 24, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. On Sunday, an informed Kurdish source revealed that a delegation from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) had met with Syrian regime intelligence officials in Damascus to discuss the situation of areas under the PKK’s control in western Kurdistan (Syrian Kurdistan). PKK Delegation Meets Ali Mamlouk in Damascus
• May 24, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. Divorce rates in Syria increased compared to the previous years, the third Sharia Judge in Damascus, Khaled Jendiyya, said on Friday. Divorce Rates in Syria on the Rise

USA

• May 23, 2022. Yung Chun, Tyler Haupert, Stephen Roll, Sophia R. Fox-Dichter, and Michal Grinstein-Weiss, Brookings. The radical social, economic, and employment changes spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in many people rethinking their living arrangements. These changes substantially affected the U.S. housing market, though not always in the same way. For example, homeowners may have been reluctant to list their properties for sale and home buyers may have been reluctant to shop for homes during the pandemic out of fear of actually catching COVID-19. At the same time, housing demand increased as the pandemic forced people to spend more time at home and thus increased the demand for housing. Limited empirical research investigates these trends in detail or explores how these trends have differed over the course of the pandemic and across different geographies. To address those questions, we present an analysis of home price dynamics at different stages of the pandemic which differed based on geographic characteristics—geography and urbanicity. Did the pandemic advance new suburbanization?

USA – Hamas

• May 24, 2022. By US Department of State. While Palestinians in Gaza face harsh living and economic conditions under Hamas, the terrorist group has amassed hundreds of millions in its secret investment portfolio.  Targeting Covert Hamas Investment Network and Hamas Finance Official

DEFENSE – MILITARY – CYBER

• May 24, 2022. By Rachael Falk, The Strategist. The world of cybersecurity is overflowing with principles. Principles about patching, passwords and people. Principles about physical security, phishing and firewalls. But until recently, there has been little legal precedent supporting these principles—and without such precedent, principles can be difficult to enforce. Cybersecurity rulings important for all Australian businesses
• May 24, 2022. By Naval News. Saab has received an order from the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration for a new torpedo tube for lightweight torpedos. Saab Receives Swedish Order for Torpedo Tubes for Surface Ships
• May 24, 2022. By Tayfun Ozberk, Naval News. Turkey’s Golcuk Naval Shipyard ceremonially launched (dry-docked) the second Reis-class (Type-214TR) air-independent propulsion (AIP) capable submarine, the future TCG Hizir Reis, on May 23, 2022, in Golcuk, Izmit. The first welding of the 6th submarine, the future TCG Selman Reis, was performed during the ceremony. Turkey launches second Reis-class Type 214 AIP submarine
• May 24, 2022. By Naval News. On May 23rd, Austal USA successfully launched the 17th Independence-variant Littoral Combat Ship (LCS), the future USS Augusta (LCS 34). Austal USA Launches 34th Littoral Combat Ship for US Navy
• May 24, 2022. By Justin Katz, Breaking Defense. Following the lead of the other services and the broader Pentagon, the Navy has published a new climate action strategy that seizes upon the coming years as a time for “decisive action” to quantifiably reduce the service’s greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. Navy brass put forward climate plan, citing threats to Parris Island, San Diego bases
• May 23, 2022. By Justin Katz, Breaking Defense. An American fast-attack submarine that hit an uncharted seamount in the Indo-Pacific last year could have prevented the incident if not for an “accumulation of unit-level errors and omissions in navigation planning; watch team execution; and risk management,” according to a newly released service investigation. Navy finds multiple failures in ‘preventable’ sub accident in Indo-Pacific
• May 23, 2022. By Andrew Eversden, Breaking Defense. It’s still too early to say when the Glide Phase Interceptor, designed to knock out hypersonic glide vehicles, will actually join operational missile defenses, according to Vice Adm. Jon Hill, who said today, “We’re just getting started.”. ‘Just getting started’: Too early to say when hypersonic interceptor will go live
• May 23, 2022. By Lee Ferran, Breaking Defense. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin today reiterated that US policy towards Taiwan has not changed, hours after President Joe Biden appeared to make news by saying the US would intervene militarily should China invade. After Biden’s Taiwan remarks make waves, Austin reiterates US policy hasn’t changed
• May 23, 2022. By Tara Copp, Jacqueline Feldscher, Defense One. For a third time, President Joe Biden has suggested that the United States would come to the military defense of Taiwan, provoking hasty administration “clarifications” that nothing’s changed. Despite Biden’s Latest, Pentagon Says Nothing Has Changed On US Defense of Taiwan
• May 23, 2022. By Patrick Tucker, Defense One. The “hardest” challenge the Missile Defense Agency will face in protecting Guam from missile threats will be integrating multiple data streams into a single, coherent picture for commanders, the agency’s commander said Monday. To address that challenge, the agency hopes to build an integrated missile defense command and control center on the island, which would give military leaders better control over the variety of missile defense tools at their disposal, Vice Adm. Jon Hill said.  Missile Defense Agency Eyes Command Center for Guam
• May 23, 2022. By Mark Montgomery, Riki Ellison, Bradley Bowman, Defense One. The Defense Department of Defense has dithered as China builds ballistic, hypersonic, and cruise missiles to attack Guam, America’s most important military base in the western Pacific. The good news is that the Pentagon is finally requesting nearly $1 billion for the island’s missile defense in the 2023 budget. But seeing it through on time will require assertive congressional oversight and action. Guam Needs Better Missile Defenses—Urgently
• May 23, 2022. By  Stephen Losey, Defense News. The U.S. Air Force conducted its first testing exercise with an E-7 Wedgetail, the Boeing Co. aircraft now used by Australia’s military that will begin to replace retiring E-3 Sentry Airborne Warning and Control System planes this decade. Australians bring Wedgetail to Black Flag test as US preps for AWACS replacement
• May 23, 2022. By  Jen Judson, Defense News. The U.S. Army has decided to cancel the science and technology research effort for a potential program to develop a strategic long-range cannon, the service confirmed. US Army terminates Strategic Long-Range Cannon science and technology effort
• May 23, 2022. By  Mackenzie Eaglen, Defense News. America’s military leaders state time and again that China’s forcible assault on Taiwan, and therefore our response to it, is a near-term challenge. Given the lengthy time to plan, program, build and field credible combat power, a 2027 problem is really one of today. Alarm bells should be ringing in Congress as the president’s latest defense budget cuts readiness. The US defense budget’s latest casualty is readiness
• May 23, 2022. By Erol Yayboke, Christopher K. Reid, CSIS. The United States is shifting to “over-the-horizon” counterterrorism operations (OTH-CT) that rely on remotely piloted aircraft (RPAs) in countries where it lacks a ground presence. RPAs have been a preferred surveillance tool and strike platform, but significant concerns remain regarding the decision to deploy them in future counterterrorism operations. Counterterrorism from the Sky? How to Think Over the Horizon about Drones
• May 23, 2022. By Michael O’Hanlon, Lauri Tähtinen, The Hill. With Helsinki and Stockholm now formally requesting membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the world will reach an important juncture. The overwhelming Western anger at Vladimir Putin’s Russia makes ratification by NATO’s 30 legislative branches a strong likelihood in the weeks or months to come. Turkey is objecting now, but some degree of debate, as well as give and take, within the alliance is normal in such matters. Yes to Finland and Sweden in NATO

DIGITAL & TECH

• May 23, 2022. By Tom Wheeler, Brookings. Recent headlines graphically illustrate that the United States has yet to discover how to deal with the intersection of free speech and online behavior. Elon Musk, the Buffalo shooting, Texas, and Internet free speech

HORIZONS

• May 24, 2022. By Tim Benton, Helen Harwatt, Chatham House. Modern methods of food production are increasingly recognized as a major contributor to global warming, air and water pollution, deforestation, biodiversity loss, soil degradation and the emergence of disease. In turn, climate change is compromising food security and supply-chain resilience, with related natural disasters driving up food prices. Under the free market system, increasing productivity has been emphasized as the way to meet rising global demand for food. Sustainable agriculture and food systems
• May 23, 2022. By Cailin M. Kenney, Defense One. The Navy Department’s new climate strategy offers some specific goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from its vehicles and buildings, but outlines no goals for reducing emissions from its largest source of energy usage: ships and aircraft.  Navy Climate Strategy Lacks Specifics for Reducing Largest Energy Emissions Producers
• May 23, 2022. By Conor Savoy, Janina Staguhn, CSIS. Water presents a significant global development challenge as crises over resources and access to clean water are becoming more extreme due to climate change. To reach the most disadvantaged communities in rural areas, adequate infrastructure is going to be integral. It is estimated that water infrastructure will require an additional $22.5 trillion by 2050, and to achieve Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 6, financing would need to triple to $114 billion per year. As with other forms of infrastructure, water requires more than simply building reservoirs, pipes, and holding tanks. For true sustainable infrastructure, donors and local governments should also invest in support to maintain infrastructure and create a regulatory environment that enables continued improvement. Creating an Enabling Environment for Sustainable Water Infrastructure Financing